Insider Advantage has a new poll showing Barack Obama leading John McCain in Georgia with Saxby Chambliss barely ahead of Jim Martin.
Matt Towery also says that Obama could see an even further increase in Georgia:
“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.”
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percentChambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent
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Let me use one simple word and the one simple word is a quote from Joe Biden, “Bull Sh!t.”
This is how Insider Advantage earned it’s reputation as the single most accurate polling firm in Bizarro World.
Are there any local polls? Specifically the Epps v. Freeman race?
I heard there was one poll done by the Republican party that showed Epps with a double digit lead. Is this true or a rumor?
Any information will be appreciated.
Yes and Ralph Reed is going to win LG. Remember Cagle smoked Reed by 12% points.
IA gets it right on the no-brainer elections, like John Lewis and Lynn Westmoreland win reelection or Hillary wins the NY Presidential Primary, to bump up their win ratio, but they’ve had some problems with the high-profile races. Polls are easy when the election is predictable, the sign of a good pollster is somebody who notices trends outside the norm. Any idiot can look at past demographic data, assign the appropriate percentages, and then randomly call likely voters based on those percentages.
The fact is nobody has a clue who is going to win GA because the polling depends on what percentage you assign to black voters. If you go by past black voting history (26%) then the poll shows McCain winning, if you extrapolate early voting (33%), then Obama wins. So I imagine most pollsters are throwing darts at numbers between 26% and 33% to assign black percentages.
Buzz thinks “maybe it’s time to rethink the whole ‘no Obama landslide’ thing” as he wraps duct tape around his head to keep it from exploding.
Y’all keep on believing that this thing is not going to be close in Georgia.
Keep on believing it.
Keep on believing it. Only a racist would keep on believing it, you racist.
So, if neither McCain or Obama get 50%+1, does it go to a run-off?
No runoff for the Presidential.
It is going to be tight everywhere.
Maybe now Obama will promise us water.
They must be smoking something. GOP turnout and support for McCain is at least as strong as it was for Bush. Lots of “White Kerry voting Dems” are supporting McCain. The Black turnout is strong, but as long as it is less than 35% DEMS do not have a chance. I use the 35% number because Purdue won every county with less than 35% black voter participation. They will be even more white Dem crossover than in 2006. My Prediction is McCain 54, Obama 44 Barr less than 2%. On the other hand when hard core GOP voters like myself consider voting LIBERT in order to push a run-off in the SENATE Race, I know Saxby is having problems.
How about that Alabama Crimson Tide ?:)
No way in hell Obama wins Georgia. Obama won’t win any state below the Mason-Dixon line. The south will remain red.
I think Obama is going to wake up on the 5th of November hung over and wishing he had NEVER had such a nightmare.
He is going to hear the sound of shattered glass!
A GLASS CEILING WILL BREAK!
Huh?
SOWEGA:
He’s poised to take Virginia and NC is likely going to go for Obama.
No way in hell Obama wins Georgia. Obama won’t win any state below the Mason-Dixon line. The south will remain red.
Errr…uhhhh. Don’t stand near you while you explode on election night as Virginia, and possibly North Carolina turn blue.
Jason,
Not to say anything about Maryland. People don’t realize the Mason Dixon line is Pennsylvania’s southern border.
I heard this was actually an exit poll of those who have already voted. Anyone know?
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