Marshall’s Vote

Jim Marshall voted for the Wall Street bailout. I wonder if that will hurt him in the 8th Congressional District. He’s already unpopular with a lot of movement liberals because of his SCHIP vote and support of the war.

The bailout is deeply unpopular regardless of ideological leanings. Goddard, I believe, said he’d vote against the plan.

So does this weaken Marshall? Listening to my Wall Street friends, the answer is no. The economy is about to collapse, the GOP is toast, McCain has lost, and Marshall will be proven right. Probably so across the board, but I get the sense, based on how the Marshall campaign is operating, that they are, for once, really nervous.

32 comments

  1. rugby fan says:

    Two things about this post stick out to me.

    First, that there are a significant number of “movement liberals” in the 8th District.

    Also, not sure if this is Erick or his Wall Street buddies talking, but the line about McCain having already “lost” and the GOP is “toast”.

  2. Game Fan says:

    Jeez
    Conservatives expected these Wall Street wizards to carry the torch for conservatism. But now we’re at one of those “Oh sh-t” moments. How about applying real free market principles to the big boys once in a while?

    “The Rescue Package Will Delay Recovery”
    http://mises.org/story/3131

  3. Doug Deal says:

    Erick,

    Don’t confuse your wannabee Masters of the Universe friends at RedState with real experts. Wall Street drama queens aside, I have read and heard a large number of economists who are against any bailout plans.

  4. I disagree with the side comments, however I think you are right in your assessment of Marshall.

    There are a lot of people angry here in Dodge County to begin with. I get the feeling that all over the 8th, people do not like the bailout.

    Ultimately, Marshall doesn’t have the clout of someone like Sandford Bishop. Keep in mind Mac Collins nearly beat him two years ago. You chip at wall long enough, and it’s going to crumble.

  5. Someone who won by a margin of 1,700 votes, has only been in office six years, and is likely to tee off his base by not supporting his party’s candidate has an incumbency advantage of what again?

    I agree with the assertion that incumbency is a powerful force, but I really don’t think this is the best race to apply it too. But you know, I could be wrong.

  6. Jane says:

    This was probably a bad move politically for Marshall.

    There should be an amemdment saying that any purchase of bad mortgages should be in monetary terms be equal across every congressionla district plus with no racial or ethnic group should recieve a greater percentage of funding than thier percentage in the 2000 census. Finally, loans to non-citizens should be be protected by the federal government. I bet many of the sub-prime loans that failed were to non-citizens who self deported to Mexico.

  7. tb says:

    Paulson should resign if he can’t address the mark to market problem.. He doesn’t need congress for that. He needs to resign if he can’t do his job. It’s a shame.

    Paulson, Lehman and AIG all need to be fuly investigagted along with Goldman Sachs. This is an outrage

  8. bowersville says:

    “The seller is unwilling to sell them at market prices.”

    Now we are getting there. Been to a foreclosure auction on the court house steps lately. The minimum bid, which is what is owed, is not being met. Check it next week and you’ll see it on a MLS priced at what’s owed plus broker fee.

    Now what do you think the non transparent $700 billion is for.

    The owner can either sale at fair market value or wait for a bail out, which would you do. This mess didn’t happen overnight and it’s not going to be over tomorrow.

  9. IndyInjun says:

    Until today, I was very supportive of Marshall, who seemed to be willing to take the tough position of siding with the GOP when it met the demands of his district.

    Today that ended.

    Marshall just committed political suicide.

    That district will go to the GOP.

  10. IndyInjun says:

    Market to Market beats Mark to Fiction.

    Lessee, the truth hurts so put the truth back in a box.

    Then an investor won’t have any way on earth to value a company.

    I hve thought this over a lot. After the S&L fiasco, investors made a killing buying the failed S&Ls or their assets.

    This time is different. The sheer accounting and legal effort to put Humpty Dumpty together again makes those toxic securities toxic.

    They trade at 10 cents on account of this.

    If the government pays 60 cents it will lose $trillions.

  11. Doug Deal says:

    Then, bow, as the article says, the problem is not illiquidity, it is the unreasonable expectation that someone else will pay more for your assets than they are worth.

  12. bowersville says:

    And that “someone else” is the taxpayer in the form of a Bush/Congressional bailout.

    Now as people reach the panic mode as Dow Jones tumbles and their 401k begins to tank, the taxpayer will demand we pay the unreasonable expectation.

    Ain’t politics a b!tch.

  13. Doug Deal says:

    If they are worried about their 401K and daily fluctuations, they have little business investing in the market and should stick to a cash position.

    401k’s are solely a retirement investment. That means daily fluctuations in your position are virtually meaningless to the long term value of your investment. When people start day trading their 401k’s, they pretty much are asking to retire to the poor-house.

  14. bowersville says:

    The largest reliable voting segment is the AARP types or the soon to be AARPrs and it’s not hard to convince them the sky is falling.

    For what it’s worth, the latest Rasmussen is about 33/33/33 on the bailout.

  15. RuralDem says:

    “I get the sense, based on how the Marshall campaign is operating, that they are, for once, really nervous.”

    Is this the same sense that told you Marshall’s first ad was an attack ad, even though it wasn’t?

    Still haven’t seen any correction on that.

  16. John Konop says:

    This is a bad bill, but a crashing market will force the hand of congress. The money should have been focused on helping people make payments to slow down foreclosures. The T-Bill rate is about 2 percent and Congress could have kept troubled bowers in interest only loans at low rates till the market came back and reserved the mark up. Even at 4% we have 2 % to put in reserve. This way we could help out the estimated 5 trillion dollars of troubled loans. Also between the reserve and bailout money put in reserve this would cover much of the risk of the estimated 5 trillion dollars in loans that have problems.

    The current plan is not only bad policy but all know the 700 million utilized with the current idea will run way short. And this looks like a slippery sloop of asking for more bailout money over time.

  17. tb says:

    Newt was on Greta Last night explaining more on the mark to market:

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430429,00.html

    And there is talk that there will be yet another bill introduced this week. Why is it that they feel the need for an Act of Congress, when the simple solution would be to fire the Treasury Secretary or challenge him to suspend sarbane oxley or get fired.
    Maybe people need to burn up the phone lines of the White House.
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

  18. Rick Day says:

    I understand through a 3rd party that Marshall was on NPR blowing on about how he was voting to ‘save American’s 401k’s..and how it may cost him his job, yadda…when the NPR honey cooed that indeed, the bill failed.

    Jim muttered a weak “Oh my god…” a few times and the interview ended.

    Good Times.

  19. Tinkerhell says:

    I made it clear to his office when I was calling around to find out how he voted that I would be pushing the screen for Goddard. I’m not saying this is the only reason I plan to do that or that I wasn’t planning to do that before the bailout vote, but it was certainly another straw on the back.

    It will still be tough to beat the incumbent.

  20. slyram says:

    What are you’ll doing talking about Marshall with me. It is the political perfect storm: three elements hitting at one time:

    1. Republicans mad because he is not a Republican and Democrats are mad because he is not a Democrat.
    2. “Real People” (see Palin base) are mad because Wall Street got bailed out before real people. Half of the Congressional Black Caucus voted “no” yesterday, and I think Marshall and Bishop voted yes because Columbus and Macon have thousands of banking and insurance jobs. Synovus in Columbus and Geico in Macon.
    3. Obama Blacklash: forget party, forget what Obama says himself, if you tell a Black Obama voters that Marshall never helped Obama, most would not vote for him. Call it what you want, but the benefit of a Black (or half Black) President is like the Cosby Show on steroids. Don’t laugh, people tell Dr. Cosby that his show was a role model family everyday…and that was just a T.V. show. Remember, many Whites never thought about Blacks living like that before that show. If Sec. Condi Rice was the GOP nominee today, she would have my vote for the same reason. Marshall miscalculated the power of the blacklash.

    Finally, Marshall’s ads run all day from Covington to north Florida. WCTV in Tallahassee constantly has his ads and that station covers most of the panhandle. My point is that if Marshall supported the Dem ticket it would be hugh because his zillion dollars in ad buys covers most the center of Georgia, north Florida and east Alabama. Jim Marshall could have won Florida and Georgia for the Dem Team. Don’t think those Black candidates who ran for mayor in Macon are not thinking about running for congress if Goddard wins. Humm

  21. Chris says:

    This won’t hurt Marshall because the GOP is responsible _for_allowing_ this to happen. They didn’t cause the problems, they just sat on their fat white asses and let it happen.

    If the Bill fails again on Thursday, and the Democrat controlled government doesn’t pull an FDR next year then the economy will recover fairly quickly.

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