Why Obama fled Georgia.

McCain now leads Obama by 18 points in Georgia:

McCain is getting 73 percent of the white vote in Georgia, while only 19 percent say they prefer Obama. McCain is also supported by 61 percent of those who describe themselves as independent.

But the big difference is among party stalwarts. Ninety-four percent of Republicans polled said they would choose McCain. But only 76 percent of Democrats said the same about Obama.

This is a rather dramatic change from previous IA polling which showed Obama in reach.

42 comments

  1. albert says:

    Obama on Letterman: Gov. Palin is the lipstick, McCain is the pig.

    So utilizing Omama’s rationale, he’s a ghetto gang banger!

  2. slyram says:

    Hopefully, they are “playing possum” as we say down here in Sowega.

    May I say that I broke that uppity thing down; click my name to check it out.

  3. onthefence says:

    that makes sense to me. i would think (no factual evidence) that there are more republican voters in our state than democrats, anyway. i thought georgia was a red state regardless. so it seems obvious that mccain was going to take our state.

    just thinking…

  4. ChuckEaton says:

    I don’t think the Obama campaign is playing possum. I’m guessing they wish they could have back every penny that they spent in the state of Georgia. There have been a lot of interesting articles, by Democratic strategists, stating that Obama should have been concentrating on swing states and not organizing in all 50.

    There are some GA Democrats who are unhappy he’s pulling out of GA, if I were a Democrat I’d be praying for him to stay out of GA (unless of course your Jim Martin) and spend the money where it’s needed. As a McCain supporter, I hope McCain doesn’t spend one dime in Georgia.

    But I agree with the Governor and hope Obama spends millions of dollars here.

  5. Chuck,

    The state totals and projections are impressive, but they start with such a low percentage of the vote that it becomes tough to win the whole state. As for praying that he stays out of GA, that is definitely not true in Cobb, Douglas, Gwinnett, Henry, Rockdale, Newton etc.

  6. ChuckEaton says:

    I do think the problem with any Georgia poll is deciding what weight to assign the black demographic. Is Obama going to bring that demographic out more than (and by how much) the previous election percentages. I don’t know the answer, but it appears as if Obama, and his pollseters, have a new theory.

    Over the next few years I expect we’ll lose a few House and Senate seats, but for the most part for every new voter that pops up in Rockdale or Newton another one appears in Cherokee or Forsyth.

  7. Bill Simon says:

    RACIST!!! Chris is a RACIST!!! He dared to utter the “black vote” phrase that clearly points him out to be a person who divides and classifies “black people” as their own separate voting bloc.

    Chris, for YOUR information, “black voters” are just like you and me. They are human beings with their own lives and their own individual identity.

    How INSULTING it is to “black voters” for YOU to dare identify tham as anything but simply “voters.”

    You need to go take some sensitivity training, and soon! Next thing we’ll be hearing from you is comments about the “Jewish vote” for Obama.

  8. midtown_maven says:

    It’s not just IA polling, other polling data has it out of reach.

    Hillary would have kept it in play.

  9. Chuck,

    The GOP’s biggest problem (as far as I see it) is not that the state won’t remain Republican leaning for reapportionment purposes, it is that the current Republican legislature will have to approve the future map.

    Shifting the population to the Atlanta area would have allowed the Democrats to draw a map that while still creative would have been constitutional and could have maintained a slim but solid Democratic majority. Think like 95-85 in the House. The problem was that we had too many rural Democrats (almost all of whom have either switched, retired or been beaten) who wanted to draw a map for the 2000’s that maintained THEIR power. As far as they were concerned the only map worth passing was one that would continue to elect Tom Murphy speaker.

    The Republicans have a similar problem. Let’s just say for example that North Georgia gets 6 or 7 new seats in the House that would be mostly Republican. Well, the problem is that everybody “comfortably South of Atlanta” and lower is going to be fighting for territory. Someone like Steve Davis, if he’s still around at that point (I have my doubts, see for example Bob Mumford) is going to want to draw his district so far South into Henry (or even further) if he wants to hang on. The guy who represents the area below Davis in Henry is also going to want to go South.

    Meanwhile, everyone in South Georgia is going to need to collectively draw their districts North or eliminate and be paired with a Democrat. Some of your legislators really do have balls of steel and would gladly pair with a D for the good of the party, particularly if they were assured it was a Republican leaning district. Most of these guys do not fall in that category.

    So it becomes tough to draw a map. They risk trying to bail out a bunch of districts that are just going to go Democratic after 2 or 4 years and not draw the appropriate number of new districts elsewhere that wouldn’t.

    If we have a Democratic governor and the legislature/governor deadlock and a court draws the map that’s probably the best thing for the party. But the Steve Davis’s and Bill Hembree’s of the world won’t have a home anymore, much like the Democratic rural guys of the past.

  10. Holly says:

    Georgia has over 1 million registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats. It only has 800,000 who identify themselves as Republican. However, yes, we are a red state. For whatever reason, the declared Democrats don’t vote as often as the declared Republicans.

  11. Holly says:

    I didn’t say they registered with a party. These are people who have either answered surveys or have voted in two or more primaries (within the last four) with a consistent party. But, you know, feel free to nitpick.

  12. griftdrift says:

    Some people vote a particular way in primaries because it only makes sense. For example, I’m pretty sure Elaine Boyer (the only Republican I could vote for in the last primary) can take care of herself.

    Although I’m tempted to pull the R primary just so I can diversify the mailers I receive.

  13. Doug Deal says:

    Holly,

    Looking at primaries is a horrible way to identify party affiliation. Look at Monroe, and Lamar counties. Both go overwelmingly Republican in general elections, but in the primaries they often go up to 80% democratic, due to a “popular” or “unpopular” sheriff.

  14. atlantaman says:

    Holly-

    I have no idea where you’re getting the numbers and would like to know the survey, who did the survey, etc..

    As far as blending past primary election results here are the numbers:

    2008 Sen
    R 392,298
    D 493,243

    2006 Gov
    R 419,254
    D 482,117

    2005 Senate
    R 651,282
    D 625,154

    2002 Gov
    R 511,463
    D 434,892

    Obviously, 2008 is the most recent, but it was the most boring Primary in the history of the GA GOP and a fairly exciting Dem Primary. The 2006 results are not good numbers since Perdue was essentially an unopposed incumbent.

    I think 2002 are going to be your best numbers, as far as party participation, since it was an open Senate seat without any other major statewide races to influence it. Although, one could argue that Isakson was so popular that the Democrats gave up on it.

    The 2002 numbers favor the GOP, but are not as reliable since you had Barnes as an unopposed incumbent. You’re also getting away from the current trend going this far back.

  15. RuralDem says:

    “Georgia has over 1 million registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats. It only has 800,000 who identify themselves as Republican. However, yes, we are a red state. For whatever reason, the declared Democrats don’t vote as often as the declared Republicans.”

    You do realize there are a ton of Democrats in rural areas that will split the ticket? Many rural areas are still heavily Democratic locally, but the higher up the ballot the more they vote GOP.

    So, no, Georgia is not a “red state” in the definition that it’s a staunchly Republican state. Georgia IS a conservative state, there’s a major difference there.

    On a local level there’s still a healthy amount of conservative Democrats.

  16. Doug Deal says:

    Rural,

    That is why I wish the national parties would break from the state and local parties. National interests do not necessarily match up with local interest.

    For example, you might want your local people to spend more on education and focus more on crime issues, but you might want the feds to focus on national defense.

  17. atlantaman says:

    If you can’t consider GA a “red” state then the standard for deciding a “red” state or a “blue” state is so high there are only a few states in the union that could be defined by color.

    Our Governor, both Senators, both legislative houses, and every open statewide election have gone Republican.

    In the statehouse, one of the better indicators of the local political pulse, the only traditional conservative democrats left are old relics of a bygone era. My guess is the politicians on a more local level, that serve in partisan positions, like Sheriff, that are Democrats in conservative, non-urban areas, are long-serving incumbents.

    The democrat that is elected in an open-seat, from a conservative area of Georgia is a true exception and does nothing to threaten our “red” state status.

    When a Democrat wins an open statewide race, beats a statewide GOP incumbent, becomes the Speaker or Senate President, or carries the state in a Presidential election; then we can discuss the “purple” status of our state.

  18. SkylerA says:

    Buzz,

    This is why it is unwise for a Republican to assume they know the inter workings of the Democratic campaign.

    They didn’t flee Georgia. We have one of the best field plans in the country, and most counties in GA are self substaining. We’ve registered close to 250,000 people in GEORGIA ALONE! 70,000 alone over labor day, setting history for the largest voter registration drive in history.

    They still have a huge amount of staff here, they simply re allocated some of the field organizers, and expanded the areas of some of the organizers.

    You all are terribly misinformed, and uneducated on this issue. I can’t wait to see your faces when we win Georgia, or come close, because those polls aren’t polling the hundreds of thousands of college students we’ve registered, or the thousands we’ve registered in the past few weeks.

  19. CHelf says:

    Until those thousands you’ve registered buck the trend and show up to vote, your thought is only a pipe dream. It’s one thing to go to them and get them to fill out a paper. It’s another to have them energized, leave the dorm, and show up to actually vote.

  20. RuralDem says:

    Skyler does have a good point though that our friends on the other side of the aisle such as Buzz seem to know the inner workings of the party, when they have no clue.

    Which, considering it’s Buzz, he’d probably vote for and praise Obama if Obama kept his same positions but joined the GOP tomorrow.

  21. albert says:

    R= Realist
    D= delusional

    For the life of me, I cannot understand the draw to Obama. After watching his obvious pandering answers and rhetorical drivel of things he will never accomplish, I’m astonished.

    The words for the day were Community Organizer. The leftist media was on a mission today to legitimize and elevate shot stirring. As much as Obama and his handlers want to minimize Gov. Palin’s accomplishments, they inflate Sen. Obama’s.

    They really do think we’re stupid. Well, maybe some are….

  22. Bill Simon says:

    “We have one of the best field plans in the country, and most counties in GA are self substaining.”

    Yeah…you know what their “plan” is? It is to park themselves in front of Wal-Marts and hand-out voter registration forms while casually asking people who they like for president. AND, then they offer to “turn the form over to the Secretary of State.” (which is ILLEGAL).

    Then…they take the ones from the folks who indicated they wanted to vote for Obama and put them in one pile and the ones who want to vote for McCain, they put into another pile…and throw-away later.

    Yeah, Skyler, don’t worry…you and your pals keep on doing that…we have “special” plans for you and your fellow lawbreakers.

  23. atlantaman says:

    The Obama campaign doesn’t want all these volunteers to think their hard work is for nothing. So they have a vested in interest in keeping the appearance that the statewide network is meaningful. They don’t want all those people who got sunburned registering folks outside of MARTA stations to be irate.

    But when evaluating whether a candidate is taking a state for granted or has written as state off, it’s a simple rule of follow the money – which applies to so much in politics.

    Lately, when I turn on my Atlanta TV stations, I haven’t seen Obama’s energetic smile as he thoughtfully looks into the eyes adoring, white seniors, white farmers and white factory workers.

  24. SkylerA & RuralDem,

    I never claimed to know the inner workings of the Democratic Party. However, there have been numerous reports of Obama pulling TV ads in Georgia and sending field staff from Georgia to other states. Then a poll comes out showing a rather dramatic shift to McCain in Georgia and it all makes sense.

    Furthermore, I don’t really care how many people you register to vote, what wins elections is getting people to actually go vote. Register 10 million more people for all I care. How many are you going to get to the polls to vote for your candidates?

  25. odinseye2k says:

    “Yeah, Skyler, don’t worry…you and your pals keep on doing that…we have “special” plans for you and your fellow lawbreakers.”

    Oh, trust me, I’m quite sure these plans are known … I mean, we’ve seen Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and of course the horrendously immoral if not illegal caging operations against people that have had their houses *foreclosed* in Michigan for God’s sake. Ignoring judicial judgment and illegally disregarding petition signatures is small ball compared to all of that, but we’ll see where this particular SOS draws the line in a couple of months.

    We’ll register independents and Republicans in good faith if they come to us, although we do (in my org at least) provide fair warning that we are Democrats, and to use that information as you see fit.

    And yes, you register with the SecState and you get to register people to vote as a group. Otherwise there would be no such thing as organized voter drives.

    Obama’s work in the state may not ultimately win it for him, but getting free infrastructure is never bad. DPG will reap dividends in the future if they utilize the resources that the Obama campaign has developed wisely.

  26. bowersville says:

    I’m just glad the Obama camp isn’t going to close the offices in Georgia. Obama Hq for NE Georgia is open in Hartwell and Hartwell needs the rent money on the vacant building. Hartwell is a swing state that can make a difference, a difference in what I don’t know.

  27. SkylerA says:

    Bill Simon,

    I think that a team of Harvard Law Graduates and other Ivy league Graudates that are Obama’s Legal Team know the law concerning elections. They have an entire legal team in Georgia, just ask Karen Handel.

    Furthermore, We have a copy of the Georgia Laws on every clipboard that we use to register voters, so I’d suggest you head over to Karen Handel’s website and familiarize yourselves with the law before you make such ridiculous accusations. You may not want everyone to vote, but we certainly do. We Democrats believe everyone’s voice should be heard, and that includes the rural people of Georgia that shop at Wal-Mart, to the people that live in low income housing. Everyone’s vote counts the same, Mr. Simon.

    Additionally, I think that our Campaign is smart enough to track the people we register to get them to the polls. (I’ll let you figure out the rest.)

    You guys have a serious lack of judgment if you underestimate the energy, intelligence, and passion people on this campaign have. Its a campaign like no other.

  28. Bill Simon says:

    Ooooooh. “Harvard Law Graduates?” We got GSU and UGA law graduates that can tear so many new holes in those prissy, Pompadour-sporting weenies in every jurisdiction in Georgia that they’ll be lucky to be able pee straight afterwards.

    “It’s a campaign like no other.”

    Right..we are expecting liars, cheats, thugs and thieves all over this state.

    What else is there to expect from the political party whose basis for success in 2008 is a candidate that was bred out of the state known for breeding THE most crooked politicians, police departments, judges, etc.?

  29. debbie0040 says:

    Skyler, was that the same team of lawyers that helped Al Gore?

    “It’s a campaign like no other.”

    I can tell you that you are correct. I have not see this much excitement from Republican voters in
    decades. Make no mistake, a sleeping giant has been awakened.

    We have people flocking in the local GOP headquarters wanting yard signs and to volunteer. This includes Democrats and many young people. We also have African American volunteers. Usually you have to beg for volunteers, not so this time.

    We received 750 McCain-Palin yard signs in yesterday and between giving them out at the headquarters and the Fair, they were gone in a few hours!!! People were lined up to get yard signs!!

    As for voter registration, in our local GOP office, we have many people in their 40’s and 50’s coming in and picking up voter registration forms and wanting to register to voter for the first time.

    If you check with your local Election Board or the Secretary of State’s office, you will find that they have been getting huge numbers of voter registration forms. If you bother to inquire further, you will find that many of these applications are duplicates or the people are already registered to vote. Check it out for yourself…

  30. Bill Simon says:

    No doubt the Dems will scream “it’s unfair!” when they discover that 99% of the people they supposedly have “registered” were already registered via the law known as “Motor-Voter” but that THOSE voters had never bothered to show-up at the polls before…and likely won’t show-up now either.

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