Dale Cardwell Climbs to Defeat

So, who is going to win the runoff? I suspect Martin because I think, historically in Georgia, the black community does not turn out in significant numbers in runoffs. The general rule is that if the 2nd place person can keep it under 7% going into the runoff, the odds are in his favor. Between 7 and 10 percent it’s about 50-50. Over 10% the first place finisher is virtually assured of winning.

Bank on Martin for now. I don’t see Cardwell, Knight, or Lanier endorsing him.

8 comments

  1. RuralDem says:

    Erick,

    I’ll agree with you on this as far as turnout. However, I do know that in my area, older blacks will turn out to vote. Even if it’s a run off, they’ll be there. The younger the less likely they’ll turn out though.

    Cardwell is angry about Martin jumping in the race.

    An endorsement by the ultra-liberal Knight would be a negative endorsement. I could see him endorsing Martin though.

    Lanier would probably endorse Martin before he’d endorse Jones.

    A lot of the liberal wing still thinks Jones is a Republican because he hasn’t voted Democrat 100% of the time. I’m pretty sure a majority of Georgians have voted for candidates in both parties at some point, but whatever.

  2. JamesStratfield says:

    I don’t think a Knight or a Lanier endorsement would carry any weight in the runoff. Their voters were ones completely disillusioned with the process as is and likely will stay home rather than vote for an establishment candidate.

    Cardwell on the other hand could sway a good 10% of the voters who will turn out and could be an important endorsement. However, I doubt Cardwell will endorse as he probably personally does not like either men.

    The netroots again have shown their irrelevance (at least the Dem. netroots) in backing Rand Knight who nearly finished last and hating on Jones who finished an expected first but with an unexpected 40% of the vote.

  3. atlantaman says:

    With the benefit of hindsight, it’s obvious Cardwell came down off the tower too quickly.

  4. SpaceyG says:

    Lanier will endorse the winner. Maybe even if it’s Jones! Cardwell? Never. (Jones or Martin.) Dude’s just a pit bull underneath it all. Knight? He’s a sweet boy. He’ll do what his momma tells him is the right thing to do. And defeating Chambliss IS the right thing to do in November. Even if the winner IS Jones. (Did I just write THAT sentence?! Let’s hope I never succumb to the lure of believing my own copy. Whew.)

  5. SpaceyG says:

    Afraid you’re right about the netroots thing, ATLDude. I put some faith in it, but it let me down. Like that’s never happened before… oh well, we netrooters just pick ourselves up off the bottom (not too far to fall, eh?!), brush ourselves off, and get right back up to where we were to begin with.

  6. Terran1212 says:

    “An endorsement by the ultra-liberal Knight would be a negative endorsement. ”

    The “ultra-liberal” (thank you, Bill O’Reilly from somewhere in illiterateville, Georgia) Rand Knight recieved thousands of votes that would be very useful to Jones or Martin in the runoff.

    I’d comment further but you’re probably off tippin’ cows or somethin’. Gosh, gee, golly!

  7. Terran1212 says:

    “The netroots again have shown their irrelevance (at least the Dem. netroots) in backing Rand Knight who nearly finished last and hating on Jones who finished an expected first but with an unexpected 40% of the vote.”

    There are no netroots in Georgia. There’s like five blogs that no one reads. You really have got to stretch yourself there, bud.

  8. Icarus says:

    Terran,

    That’s a might sharp tone coming from someone who’s candidate, will all of Georgia’s union might behind him, got what, 5% of the vote?

Comments are closed.