45 comments

  1. Harry says:

    How paranoid? Even putting aside the paranoia, Republicans look like big losers in November. Read the latest Peggy Noonan column.

  2. Doug Deal says:

    The Republicans may lose big, but people are reading way too much into polls this early into the election cycle. General campaigns have not even started yet, and the election is 6 months off.

    There was no conventional wisdom saying the Republicans would win a majority in 1994 six months out.

    I am not sure you can really even trust traditional polling these days with 20% of Americans without a landline phone, and a significant fraction of the others not answering calls they do not recognize.

    Pollsters can tinker with the numbers all they want to “normalize” the samples, but it is all based on assumptions that are getting more and more divergent from reality.

  3. Progressive Dem says:

    There sure is a lot of hand wringing going on. Tom Davis (R-Va released this memo to the Rpublican caucus. Here are some “highlights”.

    “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006 when we lost thirty seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another fifteen seats,”

    Here is another tasty quote:
    “Members instinctively understand that the Republican brand is in the trash can. I’ve often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf. But just how bad is it?”

    Here are the dollars:
    Cash On Hand (March 31, 2008)

    RNC $31.0 M
    DNC $ 5.3 M

    NRCC $ 7.2 M
    DCCC $44.0 M

    RSCC $17.3 M
    DSCC $37.8 M

    Obama $51.1 M
    McCain $11.6 M

    Charley Cook put it best: “The GOP playbook is obsolete. Spouting an undiluted conservative message doesn’t consistently work anymore, even in some of the nation’s reddest districts.”

    This is all from one of your own.
    http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/05/15/rep-davis-paints-bleak-picture-for-gop/#more-1303

  4. IndyInjun says:

    Doug D?

    How’s that boy?

    You wrote “The Republicans may lose big, but people are reading way too much into polls this early into the election cycle.”

    The trouble is that it is not the opinion polls at which the GOP is being hammered it is the real thing.

    As I have been explaining, the GOP has a greater foe than the Democrats. It is we conservatives who wish to see that party decimated and voted completely out of existence.

    Suffering a term or two with the moderate-to-conservative Blue Dog Dems running things will be like a return to the Clinton era. This is not too small a price for us to pay to seize control of the GOP from the impostors like Chambliss and Isakson.

    Neither is safe. We want them GONE.

  5. Chris says:

    voting the GOP out of existence does no good if there is nothing to replace it. I’ll take the corruption and incompetence of bush/hastert/frist over the joys of one party rule: ussr, china etc

    There is nothing on tap to replace the GOP. Certianly not the lp where the kooks drove out the executive director for being against child porn.

  6. John Konop says:

    How many seats will the Dems gain?

    GOP cancer: Party could lose 20 more seats

    Politico-For the past 18 months, ever since the 2006 elections, congressional Republicans have been like a hospital patient trying to convince visitors that he is not really all that sick: a bit under the weather; actually feel better than I sound; should be up and about any day; thanks for asking.

    Suddenly — belatedly — all pretense is gone.

    The Republican defeat in Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi, in a deeply conservative district where, in an average year, Democrats cannot even compete, was a clear sign that the GOP has the political equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily lose up to 20 seats this fall.

  7. IndyInjun says:

    Shoot, JK

    If they have 20 seats left, that is too many.

    Farris – If the Blue Dogs we must trust for a while so be it.

    The assault on the USA by the Republican Party will take decades to fix.

    I enabled them and supported them entirely too long.

  8. John Konop says:

    The latest from Congress!

    Massive Pork for ag

    Following a veto proof vote in the House, the Senate today passed the so-called Farm, Nutrition and Bio-Energy Act with plenty of votes to override a veto. $307 Billion (equivalent to funds needed for two years to fight terrorists)!!

    So all you food stamp moochers get in line, more moolah being redistributed (taken) from the ‘evil rich’ to feed your illegitimate families.

    Without seeing the roll call vote, my bet is Georgia’s own Saxby Chambliss (up for re-election this year) was a key supporter of the bloated legislation. Too bad a real conservative did not challenge the big spending senator who never opposes more money for agriculture.

    Farm bill sails through senate

    POLITICO — A $307 billion Farm Bill cleared Congress Thursday by a lopsided 5-to-1 margin in the Senate, more than enough to overcome a threatened veto by President Bush.

    Thirty-five Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) broke with Bush on the 81-15 roll call vote, which followed Wednesday’s House vote approving the same five-year bill 318-106.

    The wide margins contrast with the months of often tortured negotiations over a massive bill which promises record funding for nutrition programs but has faced a steady drumbeat of criticism for its failure to impose tougher reforms on the current subsidy system.

  9. IndyInjun says:

    Progressive Dem…

    WHAT “undiluted conservative message” did they spout. For heavens sakes they doubled the debt, enlarged the Department of Education, passed the biggest social spending program since LBJ.

    Launching a misdirected war that blew $trillions and spent the force of our army and marines, while Osama has remained safe under the protection of the Pakistanis, to whom we have given $12 billion, is not CONSERVATIVE either.

    It is lunacy.

  10. Holly says:

    Indy apparently is advocating for communism or some other form of authoritarian rule. The rest of us will remain happy with the two party system that has been in place for 200 +years, even when mad at our respective parties.

    I agree with everything Tom Davis has in his memo. I’ve decided if that makes me “establishment,” then I’m proud to be so, because it’s the exact opposite of what the party’s been doing since 2004. . . and the reason we’ve lost credibility and respectability and elections.

  11. Doug Deal says:

    John,

    It could very well be, but it is 6 months away, and who really knows by that point. MS was a special election, and I have spent most of my free time over the last month analyzing data from elections in Presidential primaries as opposed to regular primaries, local elections and special elections.

    Special elections have about 0 correlation to the general because instead of a handful of voters, you get the vote every four years crowd.

    Take for example Bibb County (who are the only numbers I have with me at the moment). In the GE of 04, 57,788 people cast ballots for president. In the Primary of ’06, 24,012 cast a ballot for Senator. In the ’08 Presidential Primary, 35,413 ballots were cast.

    What this means is, that a huge number of people come out for the General that might be too dispirited to come out for a special election runoff.

    In MS-01, only 100,000 votes were cast. In a non presidential general election 150,000 will normally be cast, and in a presidential general election, 200,000+ will be cast.

    That means in a special election, there are a higher percentage of “motivated” voters determining the outcome, as opposed to a general Presidential where there is a lot of inertia from people’s voting habits, and people who might be unhappy go to the polls anyway.

    Another thing going for the Republicans is that they already took a hit in 2006 and the Democrats took a number of the low hanging fruit. Those districts then also have to be defended by the Dems, and the most vulnerable of all Congressmen are freshmen. If you only have 45% of the seats, you only have to win 45% of the seats to stay even, while the Dems have to win more than 55% to increase their lead.

    I am not saying that the Republicans will not be clobbered, but I am saying that the barometer’s being used for these predictions on an election that is 6 months away are invalid. Take another look after the conventions.

  12. John Konop says:

    I will give Tom Price credit he spoke out against the latest pork farm bill. I do not understand how lawmakers on both sides can keep selling out the future for our children with the wasteful pock bills.

    I do think both parties would like us to debate about gut issues like gay marriage and Rev Wright instead the fact they have sold out our kids future.

  13. Doug Deal says:

    Indy,

    He is doing great, thanks for asking. I do not think it would be so bad if the GOP is slammed in the general. All of Bush’s apologists need to go, in my opinion. My only concern for the short term is the Presidency.

    However, I think people have found it popular to talk down the GOP’s chances this year, so they pile on, and there is no basis to really know this early what will end up happening. Certainly people are angry, but they are angry at pretty much everyone in government. I do not think anyone is looking to the Dems (who are currently in control) for more answers.

  14. IndyInjun says:

    Holly, A democratic party with Blue Dogs and Black Panthers is like herding cats who are fighting like what they really are. They were in power for 40 years without even dreaming of passing anything as monstrous as Medicare D.

    The GOP of the last few years approaches Stalinism in many of its attributes. As for me, I was supporting the GOP before you were born and in a county where it would get your a$$ kicked.

    And Farris, what the lp has done is scarcely any nuttier than Isakson’s proposal of last month to make $15,000 gifts to buyers of foreclosed homes.

    Finally the GOP has succeeded in doing another thing that the Dems never attempted. It turned 100% of the country into welfare receipients by sending $170 billion in cash generated from nothing.

  15. Progressive Dem says:

    Some shining light in the GOP decided it would be advantagous to send Dick Cheney to campaign for the Mississippi congressional candidate. They also tried to tie Obama around the Democrat’s neck. Keep in mind this has been a safe GOP district.

  16. IndyInjun says:

    JK,

    I am too incendiary!

    Besides, at this point it doesn’t seem that many of them can accept, or even recognize conservatism, despite clutching it to their bosoms.

    Using Holly’s analogy, you must remember that Lenin could not stand the existence of true Communist, Trotsky, and that Hitler did the same to the real Nazi, Roehm. Maybe I should hide instead.

  17. IndyInjun says:

    Doug D,

    This looks to be one of those years like the one that saw Oxendine and Schrenko win like bolts out of the blue.

    Agreed here that the anger will take out some old Dems. Alas, it is too much to hope that Teddy Kennedy would be booted.

  18. Progressive Dem says:

    Dems a likely to pick up Senate seats in Va, NM, and Co. Good shot at Mn, NC, Alaska and Or. Longshots in NH and Maine. Gop may pick up La. Rest of the Senate is not competitive.

  19. IndyInjun says:

    Bill,

    You know, even after Larry Craig, Mark Foley, Jeff Gannon, and Ted Haggard, this bunch might still have the utter audacity to try it!!!

    Even sadder, it might work.

  20. IndyInjun says:

    Progressive,

    You overlook the cases where there are primary opponents for GOP hard cases and in some states, libertarians and Independents will have a shot.

    This is if gas is not $5 by election day. If that happens chaos will rule, with incumbents being cast in a shredder.

    It doesn’t help that, after a couple of $trillion, five years, thousands of lives, tens of thousands of officers quitting, and a spent ground force, Osama bin Laden is right where he was in December 2001, making threats from a sanctuary terrorist state – one that has gotten $12 billion in US aid.

    Someone needs to explain what is “conservative” about that madness.

    One political pundit from Mississippi said today that, despite the military support there, people are fed up with this travesty and the partisan hacks who wrap themselves in the flag to perpetuate it.

  21. Icarus says:

    “…this bunch might still have the utter audacity to try it!!!

    Even sadder, it might work.”

    As the old saying goes, if the only tool you have in your tool box is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail.

  22. Progressive Dem says:

    Indy

    Ron Paul showed how many orthodox conservatives there are. They are passionate and loud, but there aren’t enough of them to change the direction of the Republican party, let alone the nation. Furthermore the party elders belittled and insulted his foreign policy views. From my perspective he was the only GOP candidate that made any sense regarding Iraq.

    In which states are their serious primary opponents to “GOP hard cases”?

  23. IndyInjun says:

    The Paulite, Sabrin, is running in New Jersey.

    The rEVOLution is having a greater impact than imagined here. Ron Paul still has $4 million left. It says up above that McCain has only $11 million and HE is the nominee. Since he is out-of-the running Paul is being much more judicious with the money, after ill-conceived deployment by an amateurish staff.

    For another thing, the exploding costs of everything are making a lot of people remember his campaigning on the inflationary costs fiscal irresponsibility, the lure that brought Perot nearly 20 million votes. It is also behind the 80% ‘wrong-track’ outlook.

    What Nixon used to call the silent majority knows how badly the GOP has hurt this country and they want it stopped.

  24. IndyInjun says:

    Icarus,

    When the only tool is the shaft and you have given it too long, too hard, and to too many, the next use might be your last……….

  25. Donkey Kong says:

    Bill — that’s what she said.

    Indy, I share your frustration with the party, though I’m not quite as much of purist as you are — not for ideological reasons, but just trying to be a realist. Anyway, there’s a reason why I’m shuttling off to NYC instead of DC: I won’t waste my time working for any group, especially a political party, that has no idea where its going or what it wants. Many members of the GOP are in politics for politics sake, and I find that very sad (literally. it makes me sad.). So until I have the skills, contacts, and financing to concretely impact the direction of the party, or, until the party finds a leader who can actually LEAD the party in the right direction, my efforts will be elsewhere.

    I’ll admit, its people like myself that are partially to blame. I only know of two really talented kids from my generation who are in GA politics: Nick Ayers and Justin Tomczak. Most choose to go to law school, start their own business, work for or create a non-profit, work on wall street, etc etc — they redirect their energy to challenges elsewhere. But I think that’s symbolic of the problems of our political party that I wish those at the top would acknowledge and attempt to remedy.

  26. IndyInjun says:

    DK –

    No realist would have gotten in that wooden boat to cross the Delaware with George Washington either.

    Neither would a realist among the founders have figured that the Constitution of the United States would have carried us this far.

    When we give up on it and them, we are sunk – REALLY.

  27. joe says:

    Indy,

    435 + 100 + 9 + 1

    I bet that not more than 20 have even read the Federalist Papers.

  28. Donkey Kong says:

    Joe,

    While my friends were at the beach, I spent my spring break in Lawrence, Kansas with a few other students, a prof from Hillsdale, and a Harvard Law prof discussing the federalist papers, the concept of federalism, the steady erosion of federalism in our political process, and whether a stronger degree of federalism would have helped us avoid certain calamities in American history or hurt our ability to handle them. It was incredibly interesting and stimulating, especially for me as a business student. The other guys and gals were philosophy or poli sci majors, so I really learned a lot from their input, and relished the opportunity to read and discuss this stuff.

    Indy,

    Touche. Where have the heroes gone??? A great article to read when you get the time:
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/men/article3226371.ece
    A bit nostalgic, but I think the writer makes some astute observations and echoes my sentiments.

    Anyway, I love all you guys (even you, Bill), and unfortunately this will likely serve as my sign-off for most of the summer. I’ll be working pretty much nonstop, and though I may drop by occasionally to keep track on what’s going on, I doubt I’ll be able to comment much until I return home at the end of July.

  29. IndyInjun says:

    Ah, DK, that article was right in so many ways….and wrong.

    Yes, heroes seem scarce, but the hard times seem to harden the steely determination that always has been present in Americans.

    Heroism is not gone, it is just gone underground. When the times demand it, it will burst forth.

    The people know not sacrifice, nor are there any LEADERS to expect it of them capable of explaining why it must be embraced. This will change. America will survive and thrive again.

    Good luck, young sir. Keep your compass. That place has a lot of magnetic fields.

  30. dorian says:

    Indy, since when can you fix something that is broken by breaking it more? By that logic if my car has a dead battery I should dismantle it. Maybe, a ferrarri will rise from its disassembled parts.

    I agree, in-so-far as we are witnessing the end of the republican party. Didn’t someone once say “the way to crush the bourgeoise is to grind them between the wheels of taxation and inflation”? Who’d of every thought the republicans are the party of Lenin.

  31. IndyInjun says:

    Dorian,

    When one has crabgrass he eradicates it because it occupies space that is needed for good grass.

    Fertilizing crabgrass is not productive.

    Sometimes centipede does not take hold right away so we have to pull out the Roundup again.

    Sadly in wiping out the party of inflation, we may be making temporary room for the party of taxation.

    If things get bad enough the people will Roundup everything in sight. Bad grass, good grass – makes no difference – their ass is grass.

  32. Doug Deal says:

    Donky Kong,

    You said:

    I’ll be working pretty much nonstop, and though I may drop by occasionally to keep track on what’s going on.

    Still committed to dropping barrels on the head of that little Italian stlaker?

  33. dorian says:

    Yea Indy. Maybe, so. Let’s hope we’re not left with a barren wasteland where nothing will grow. Sometimes, the cure can be worse than the disease.

  34. IndyInjun says:

    Dorian,

    Frankly, the people are going to alternate ‘throwing the bums’ out between the 2 parties in 2008 and 2010 as the host of financial and geopolitical forces crash down on them.

    We can just about count on the wrong choices being made, because it is the human condition to make uninformed political decisions, be fickle, and want everything while conceding nothing.

    Only when the damage is raging in full force will the people possibly turn to LEADERSHIP to get this country back on track.

    I have not the wisdom to know if my choices are good ones, but right now I support Broun for 10th, Barrow for 11th, and Buckley for Senate a pretty good Indy ticket.

    My desire for a GOP wipe-out is accompanied by desire for continued Blue Dog ascendancy and growing third party success.

    Blind partisanship behind the GOP must go and that is Job#1.

  35. dorian says:

    Believe me Indy, I have far less faith in the human condition than you. I don’t see the pendulum ever swinging back the other way.

    I know how people on this board love it when I generalize, so I am going to do it again. Most people who post on this board, conservative or liberal, are elitists. Spend some time in a public school, or a juvenile court. There is a tidal wave coming. I don’t know statistics for crap, but I know what I’ve seen.

    There is an unskilled, uneducated class that is going to grow exponentially. In the meantime we export all our production and shift to a specialized services economy. To be honest, I may be more of a nihilist than you. I don’t think the solution is going to come when the republics all come, but when the whole system collapses.

  36. dorian says:

    err. . .should be “when the republicans are all gone” not “republics all come”

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