A theory: Barack v. Hillary

I suspect, like the Democrats, that Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help the Democrats make some gains in the State House and State Senate — not enough to take back control, but enough to make gains.

At the end of the day, I think it could be balanced out a bit by Republican gains in some of the remaining North Georgia seats that are held by Democrats. But, I believe that urban Republicans in the metro Atlanta area will have a more difficult time getting re-elected with Obama at the top. I think an Obama candidacy will turn out a large contingent of urban white upper income voters who tend to be liberal, black voters, and gay voters. That will hurt the last remaining GOP legislators in the urban areas around the Perimeter.

At the same time, I think you’ll see increased white middle class voters come out in some North Georgia areas, along with military voters, who will help finally push the last few Democrat seats in the area to the GOP. While the GOP has been fairly fractured with John McCain at the top, by November I’d expect them to be energized.

If Hillary were the nominee, I think the 2006 playing field would be the rule for 2008 in the state house and senate races. At the same time, I think we could see some offset in South Georgia with the rural white male anti-Hillary vote and a suppressed black vote shift the few white Democrat holdouts to the GOP. A Hillary candidacy would also help Rick Goddard in Georgia 8 against Jim Marshall.

All in all, I expect it to be close to a wash this year with little turn over, but I think an Obama candidacy could see the turn over be more substantially in favor of the Democrats. Still, I have this nagging suspicion that Hillary will be the nominee.*

——
*As Chris notes in the comments I posit that Hillary will be the nominee. Objectively, actually, based on current trends Obama is going to be the nominee. But I just have this nagging suspicion that Hillary is going to do something to take the nomination. I have no rational basis for this suspicion, other than the fact that her last name is Clinton.

5 comments

  1. Doug Deal says:

    I think a Hillary candidacy is about 40%, but there is nearly a 100% chance that if she is not the nominee, she will sabotage Obama in November. 2012, she is still viable and she can “I told you so” her way to the nomination. In 2016, she would turn 69, which is pushing the age envelope a little, and risks some wildcard coming in, like an Obama VP or someone like Sen. Bob Casey.

    With WV, KY and PR on the horizon, and the likelyhood of the “I’m ahead in the pop vote with MI and FL” argument turning into a “I am ahead in the pop vote with just Florida”, don’t be surprised if the convention ends with a deadlock and perhaps a third candidate.

    At that point the Dems might think “It would be a disaster to chose one over the other, so lets go a third way”.

    Anyway, Republicans would be better served to focus on their own house and try to beat whomever the Democrats select instead of hoping for the supposed weaker candidate.

  2. Tea Party says:

    My prediction is that the Dems will pick Hils for POTUS. The reason is based on that nebulous vector: Electability.

    The Dem powers will look at the numbers and their decison will be based on the ‘unspeakable component’ in the vector

    I think that will happen, the reasons will be specious, but Rev. Wrong is not helping.

    Barack has such an amazingly calm, reasonable and resonant tone in his delivery. He has the persona of a new way of doing business, of hope.
    As well, he lacks any substantive experience.

    Hils has all the wrong experience, she is two steps backward for this Country.

    John McCain will have one heck of a job against either candidate, but we have not seen what the GOP machine is going to churn out yet either. I think it will make Willie Horton and Swiftboat look like baby formula ads…

  3. Doug Deal says:

    Tea,

    Although I opposed him in the primaries, I always thought he was the candidate with the highest possibility of success in November.

    I think the Democrats would probably be unstoppable with someone like Richardson or Lieberman, but fortunately they seem to base their selection solely on who will disturb the Republicans the most. They disturb a whole lot of independents along the way too.

Comments are closed.