Robert Mumford

Someone on the tip line suggests Rep. Mumford will not be running for election again. I have put in a call to Rep. Mumford to see what’s up. Let’s not bank this till we get confirmation one way or the other.

Not being named Schaefer, I suspect Rep. Mumford will give a firm yes or a firm no.

8 comments

  1. I would not be surprised if he did not run again. There’s been talk of it for a while. His district is trending Democrat, and the precincts he has in Gwinnett are heavily Democratic.

  2. Buzz, “Trending Democrat” is an understatement. You are too kind.

    Over the past four years Mumford’s House district has become a minority district. There are 40,000 registered voters: 19,000 voters are white (48%), 18,000 voters are black, 3,000 voters are hispanic/asian/other.

    Based on current trends, by Election Day the district will actually be majority black. This is clearly a Dem district.

    The amazing thing is that Bob Mumford won two years ago.

    This is the demographic trend that I’ve been talking about for the last few years: many of metro Atlanta’s suburbs are quickly changing, particularly on the south side.

    The changes are happening on the Northside of metro Atlanta in Cobb and Gwinnett as well, and will eventually become quite visible in those countywide elections in about 2012 and 2014.

  3. Mumford won two years ago because the caucus didn’t target the race (it can be hard to pick up exactly on a fast trending district in polling and research, and at the time was only about 40% African American compared to about 46% now).

    Mumford has a lot of friends on the Democratic side of the aisle, who took the polling that said this district wasn’t quite ready and combined that with their positive feelings for Mumford (many hoped he would one day switch back to being a Democrat) and just stepped back to see what happened.

    Here’s what happened: Democratic performance was approximately 38% in 2000, 44% in 2004, 49% in 2006 and since the trend is continuing I expect it to be about 55% for 2008 – maybe higher. George Wilson (our 2006 candidate) is a solid guy and will make a great addition to the Democratic caucus.

    And Mark, this is like the second time in a row we’ve agreed on something.

  4. Old Vet says:

    Dang, Robbie is one of the most fair, non-partisan members in the House. He is respected and trusted by members of both parties. Heck, I wish he’d run and win as a Democrat. There really aren’t many of his calibre in the General Assembly.

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