Broun has big lead

The Tarrance Group conducted a poll that shows Paul Broun with a commanding lead:

“Of course, I am very pleased with the results of the poll,” Broun declared, “It really confirms what we have been confident of internally for some time. The people are happy with the job that I have been doing to represent them. They know that I have kept my promises, that I am working hard for positive change in Washington, and that I am providing leadership on issues like illegal immigration and cutting government spending.”

Congressman Broun received the support of 71% of likely Republican voters. His announced opponents, Barry Fleming and Nancy Schaefer, each garnered only 11%. Just 7% of the respondents were undecided.

Cullen Gossett, Finance Director of Congressman Broun’s re-election campaign, said that the poll results “are very positive indicators that will certainly encourage those who have contributed to Congressman Broun’s re-election, as well as potential contributors.”

The poll conducted March 11-12, 2008, surveyed 400 likely Republican voters in the 10th District.

52 comments

  1. Donkey Kong says:

    Heck yeah!! Way to go Congressman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. Um, there is no way that this is a pre-description head to head. Maybe after they say a bunch of nice things about Broun (and potentially bad things about the opponents) he garners 71%, but c’mon this is Shirley Franklin running unopposed territory.

    Buzz, before reporting on a poll you should dig a little deeper and see what exactly question was asked to get that result. Presumably, Barry Fleming (and his donors) don’t think this race is currently at 71-11.

  3. Bill Simon says:

    The Tarrance Group…hmmmm….trying to remember their reliability on races…anyone got a better memory (who does NOT work with the Broun campaign) on the Tarrance Group?

  4. rabuncountyman says:

    The Tarrance Group was used by Congressman Charlie Norwood as a polling firm. I believe they are a reliable polling firm. Republicans should like Congressman Brouns 4 way test for voting.

  5. I have to agree with Chris on this one.

    We’ve not polled the 10th on the race, but that is a pretty low ‘undecided’ factor, given that he’s not won an actual Republican primary in the district before.

    Tarrance is a good firm, very reputable, one of the largest GOP polling firms in the country. They had done some work for Max Burns as well.

    http://www.tarrance.com

  6. Bill,

    I didn’t post a link because I didn’t have one. I received this information in the form of a press release.

    I think if you’ll look back over my posts you’ll find I post a link when I have one to post which is the overwhelming majority of the time.

  7. wmo says:

    My two cents from Athens:

    Our local democratic primary is shaping up to be a snoozefest this summer. So far, the only contested democratic race on our ballots will be the senate race.

    For those of you who are of the “Broun is doomed without the Athens democrats crossing over to vote for him like last year” school of thought, you might consider the possibility of it happening again.

  8. drjay says:

    i’ve thought about the possibility–but 1. i did not know if their would be a dem primay for the 10th they might prefer to vote in–or 2. if they would do it in large enough numbers to offset what i would assume will be a much higher turnout for a proper primary than there was for a special election runoff in an off year.

  9. ChuckEaton says:

    Since there was no primary in Broun’s last election, there was nothing to “cross over” when voting for him. You simply walked into a booth and voted for the candidate of your choice – once in the special and once in the follow-up special runoff.

  10. As a Democrat, one thing that upset me about Whitehead was that the guy is clearly not Congressional material and yet the GOP establishment lined up behind him. It was as if the establishment was saying (about a seat in Congress no less) this belongs to us and this is who we are awarding it to. I think that fueled Broun’s support among Democrats, Independents and Republicans who were fed up with the establishment.

    That said, this is a primary and a lot of those Democrats will vote in their own primary, even if the Senate race is the only big draw. Simply put, Broun will need to carry a majority of Republicans to win that primary because the numbers of D’s and I’s won’t be nearly as big of a factor as in his previous non-primary win (good point Chuck).

    A lot of people told me last year that if Fleming had run, it wouldn’t have even been a race. I thought at the time it was boneheaded of the guy to give up what appeared to be his only shot at a Congressional seat for some time, but clearly things seemed to have somewhat worked out for him, unless you believe this poll.

  11. Bill Simon says:

    Chris,

    Beer (or, a Long Island Ice Tea, if you prefer) is the universal language of breaking down barriers. Share one with Mark, and I’m certain you will find lots to agree on. 🙂

  12. drjay says:

    whitehead–a former county commissioner, business owner and state senator–was “clearly not congressional material” but a bankrupt doctor practicing w/out his license–whose father was a state senator was just the thing???

  13. Jane says:

    1. If he was truly bankrupt he could not have put over 200Kk into his race.

    2. He had his licensed dinged because the renewal check had not been processed before the money was due for the license renewal. As far as I know he never was sued for Malpractice and there is not allegation that he is a bad Doctor.

    Dr, Broun won because he out worked Whitehead nothing more and nothing less.

  14. Drjay, my argument is not Whitehead vs Broun, I was merely pointing out that on his own, Whitehead does not measure up. If he does, why isn’t he challenging Broun to a rematch in a real election? There are 236 legislators and 13 members of Congress in this state. Being in category A does not automatically qualify you for Category B.

  15. drjay says:

    it’s a matter of public record hat broun has in fact filed for bankruptcy in the past, and i am aware of the situation surrounding his licensure–whitehead would have beena perfectly adequate congressman–i would have preferred fleming last year and would be supporting him this year if i still lived in martinez…

  16. drjay says:

    i think that would be oversimplifying but in most circumstances i would probably trust someone who has not to someone who has to be responsible for deciding what to do w/ our tax money–in the particular case of rep. broun it is part of the mosiac of a person i prefer not be in congress.

  17. juliobarrios says:

    As others have already stated, there was no crossover vote in Broun’s previous election.

    In order for there to have been crossover voters, there would need to have been a Primary where voters sacrificed the right to vote in the own Primary to vote in another Primary for the overall good of the district – a la Cynthia McKinney.

    In Broun’s race voters sacrificed nothing. Assumedly , the majority of Democrat voters voted for Democrats in the first round of voting and then voted for the best choice of Whitehead versus Broun in the runoff. I guess Broun was a more appealing choice to Democrats.

    Chris is right. Broun shouldn’t expect many hardcore Democrats to crossover and actually pull a Republican ballot. Yes, the Dem Primary in that area appears as if it will be boring, but your still asking a lot of somebody to ask for the different ballot of an enemy party.

  18. Bill Simon says:

    DrJay,

    So, you’re not much into the theory that once someone has gone through a very trying time in their personal lives that they wouldn’t actually have come though that time period much better educated and experienced?

    It’s not like “bankruptcy” is an illegal or an immoral act.

    How much would you be in favor of repealing ALL bankruptcy laws, including the ones where a corporation (say, like Delta Airlines) can just tell one group of creditors to shove the debt they owe them up their rear-ends because Delta will take the bankruptcy route and have that debt wiped-off the books?

  19. bowersville says:

    Say what you will about the poll but it should make donors or potential donors take notice.

    Fleming’s campaign thought the poll results significant enough to attack it, it’s method, purpose and Broun.

  20. bowersville says:

    Side note: The Fleming campaign is in a full attack mode on Paul Broun.

    I don’t get the impression that Fleming is giving opening statements as to what the evidence will show, as Flemings attorney training would dictate.

    Is it only me, or is Fleming protesting Broun’s positions too much?

    I’m beginning to wonder out loud what Fleming’s internal polling is showing.

  21. Icarus says:

    “I’m beginning to wonder out loud what Fleming’s internal polling is showing.”

    Oh come on, you can still barely read “Whitehead” under the white-out on Flemming’s poll.

  22. Icarus says:

    Actually, I’ve seen the generic ballot question:

    Would you prefer the candidate for Georgia’s 10th Congressional Candidate

    A) Who is a loyal lieutenant of Laffer Curve/Laughing stock House Speaker.

    B) Who’s most famous role was that of “Dark Helmut” from the 1987 movie “SpaceBalls”.

    C) Who is some nutjob who believes neither the constitution nor God forbids the use of medical marijuana.

    Who would have guessed that 71% of CD10 residents were stoners, while only 11% were Mel Brooks fans?

  23. Icarus says:

    O.K., made you laugh.

    Now get your butt over to yahoo sports and sign up for Peach Pundit March Madness.

  24. drjay says:

    bill simon asked:

    DrJay,

    So, you’re not much into the theory that once someone has gone through a very trying time in their personal lives that they wouldn’t actually have come though that time period much better educated and experienced?

    i am neutral on that theory bill simon, some people learn, some people never learn–but i do not feel the only person qualified to stop me from jumping off the golden gate bridge is a survivor of a previous jump–there is something to be said for knowing not to jump to begin w/–about bankruptcy laws in general–i do think they are generally crappy-i esp. do not like the ones that completely wipe away debt–i have had folks who owe me money go the bankruptcy route and it seems my creditors don’t care if i’m not getting paid by someone or not when my bills come due, but that’s a very personal, specific point–not to turn this into a macro or micro discussion but to keep it on broun–i lived in the augusta area about 10 years (mostly in evans and martinez) went to school in both athens and augusta, worked w/ dr. norwood in my role as a legislative liaison for the student dental association, was fairly active in the richmond and columbia county gop and still have an affinity for the area so i am probably biased–but even before the special most of what i knew of broun was from his senate race in 96 when he said something along the lines that “cleland played up his injuries for sympathy” he may be an adequate congressman–his alignment w/ ron paul gives me pause–but still–he just strikes me as shady–its hard to be more specific than that–but thats just the vibe i get

  25. wmo says:

    Just to step back in and defend my modest “crossover” proposal a bit…

    It’s true that there was technically no “crossing-over” last time around, but if you think democrats in Clarke County stayed home during the runoff just because there was no democrat in the race… well, the numbers attest to that not being the case.

    I don’t think that “hard-core” democrats will come out for broun this summer, either. But there are a lot of moderate democrats who mght be inclined to switch over to keep a local boy in congress.

  26. abi04 says:

    What most people don’t know is that Paul Broun made restitution to the banks as soon as he was able, even though he was not legally bound to do so. Plus, this all happened in 1982 for crying out loud. The lapse in his medical license was simply an oversight. He paid his late fee and that was the end of that. Just like I forgot to renew my driver’s license on my birthday so technically I was driving without a valid license for a while. I got a warning, paid my fee and that was the end of that!

  27. Holly says:

    Abi, lots of people let their drivers licenses expire by accident, yes. Is it good? No. However, you are not (I’m guessing) a commercial truck driver. If you were, and driving was your livelihood, it would be a big deal to forget to renew your license for six months. And it pretty much goes without saying that doctors need to be held to a higher standard in the responsibility department. They deal with people’s lives, so no, it’s not just an “oops, silly me!” situation if a medical doctor practices without a license. At best, it shows a sloppiness in one’s work – not a trait I’d want in my doctor.

  28. abi04 says:

    If he weren’t in politics, it would never even havecome up. Just rivals looking for trouble where there is none. Practicing without a license?? Such an incendiary comment! He had an expired license. It’s not as though he didn’t have a license at all or that it had been revoked for some infraction. It was just expired because of some arbitrary government fee structure. And don’t you just love those government fees. Maybe you pay one yourself. Good thing there’s not a blog fee or you’d be WAY overdue! Reminds me of the Beatles song “Taxman.” I don’t know if you have children, but would you be so incensed if your child’s beloved teacher accidently forgot to renew her license and taught without a license until she realized her oversight?Another reason good people often won’t run…because rivals scrutinize your every move. As much as you follow politics, perhaps you’ll run for office at some point. Just make sure you don’t forget to get your movie back by midnight!You could be branded a thief! Good grief!

  29. Holly says:

    Abi, I was a teacher. My mother still is, and my grandfather was a principal. None of us had any issues renewing licenses when they were due. You might be interested to know that a school district has a right – in fact, an obligation – to excuse teachers who do not have current licensure.

    An expired license means you are practicing without a license. In order to have a license, it must be current.

    Yes, when you run for office – particularly when you run on a platform of moral values – your actions are scrutinized. That’s a given. I’ve never seen a race where the voters didn’t care about the candidates background, have you? Why do you think that is, Abi? It’s because they’re electing the person to represent them: their values, their characters, and their convictions. Any candidate who isn’t willing to accept that the scrutiny that goes with the responsibility for that constituency ought not run for any office.

  30. Goldwater Conservative says:

    I trust, which is the wrong word to use with anything political, Fleming on this one.

    It is important to know who was asked, what was asked, were the response options rotated, when was this done…what were the results, the margin of error, number of observations.

    It is all relevant. If you poll the congregation at Broun’s church,…the results will be very different. We do not know what was polled and how. Chances are…this was a fundraising ploy.

  31. abi04 says:

    Holly, I’ve never seen such nit picking! I can’t believe the bitterness. You really haven’t gotten over the fact that Paul Broun beat your guy fair and square and is doing a great job for the people of the district. As far as teachers go, and I also used to be one, I’ve never heard of a district “excusing” a teacher for forgetting to pay the license renewal fee. With the situation our schools are in now, to take such action against a good teacher would probably get the principal or superintendent fired!And rightfully so. Holly, you sound like a smart girl. You’re really not doing yourself any favors beating this dead horse.

  32. Holly says:

    Well, I taught and come from a line of teachers, so I am aware. If you don’t know what happens with teachers who don’t maintain their licensure, I doubt you were a public school teacher.

    Shall I assume whenever you have no good argument, you will bring up irrelevent issues and try to turn it into a personal issue? Duly noted.

  33. Goldwater Conservative says:

    How many people in the 10th can say that Paul Broun’s representation has left them better off than where they were last July?

    Only a handful…and they are all related to Paul Broun.

    He has done nothing of any consequence. Not even so much as proposing legislation that will benefit the people of our district.

    He is a Do Nothing Congressman.

  34. Bill Simon says:

    Holly,

    NOT that I’m trying to say that license lapses are “okay”…BUT, in a lot of license-lapsing cases (in many disciplines), the license exists purely as a revenue generator for the municipality, and has nothing to do with the competence of the license-holder that let that bookkeeping requirement (and check-writing requirement) slip from their mind.

  35. bowersville says:

    This license issue went around and around and around during the special.

    It has been hashed and hashed and rehashed to death.

    I doubt that any voter in the upcoming 10th primary hasn’t heard about it already, ten times. It ain’t gonna make any difference, everybody has made up their mind months ago.

  36. rabuncountyman says:

    “It is all relevant. If you poll the congregation at Broun’s church,…the results will be very different. We do not know what was polled and how. Chances are…this was a fundraising ploy.”

    Considering his bankroll, I am sure Barry has run at least 1 internal poll which was a random sample of the district. Why hasn’t he released his findings to refute the Broun campaign? I have a guess.

  37. bowersville says:

    “I am sure Barry has run at least 1 internal poll…..why hasn’t he released his findings to refute the Broun campaign?”

    “Chances are…this(the Broun poll) is a fundraising ploy”

    Too easy, the numbers don’t support Fleming and yes chances are it’s a fund raising ploy.

    Fleming has no choice but to attack the poll because he knows that if the ploy works, it will be a grass roots effort district wide that will support Broun. A grass root effort that he(Fleming) will not overcome.

  38. Jace Walden says:

    I wish there were more “do nothing” Congressmen.

    Government tries to do too damn much for the “people of the district”. How about the “people of the district” do for them damn selves for a while?

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