Is Nancy Schaefer Getting In?

I hear that Nancy Schaefer is going to jump into the race for the 10th Congressional District. She’ll be joining incumbent Paul Broun and Barry Fleming. I predict that Schaefer, should she choose to get in, will hurt Broun and help Fleming.

It’d be one of those typical actions where she thinks she can win and, in fact, she hurts the guy most aligned to her on issues.

54 comments

  1. ocga78 says:

    If she runs for Congress, there is a strong liklihood that someone will run for her Senate seat. There is an equally strong liklihood that someone will win.

  2. Principles before Politics says:

    According to the State Ethics Commission website, Terry Rogers of Clarkesville filed his DOI on 1/14/08 for the 50th Senate District. So, she will have opposition either way she goes.

  3. Bill Simon says:

    I suspect Schaefer will be praying for another hurricane (OR, some disaster to strike somewhere) so she can claim it was due to gays and homosexuality and SHE should be elected to Congress to stop those disasters from happening.

  4. drjay says:

    hasn’t she had pretty close races for the senate seat–would it be considered “safe” or is it a swing district? i would think in a 3 way primary she would have a s good a shot as th other 2–i mean look at what paul broun was able to do last year…

  5. Goldwater Conservative says:

    Rugby-fan…he was sworn in. Read the congressional record.

    I can only hope that Nancy gets in. Sounds weird coming from me, but I have alterior motives. Barry Fleming. Nancy might (if she can raise enough money) be able to tear away some of those lunatics that want their congressperson to be someone like Paul Broun. It will absolutely result in a Run-off between Broun and Fleming (Fleming being the leading contender)…perhaps even hand the entire thing off to Fleming with no run off.

    It is not as if there will be a democrat in the race. The only announced democratic candidate does not have the money to qualify, not to mention will not be able to compete,…and nobody has shown much of an interest in running.

    There are enough Republicans in the 10th to ensure that a 3-way primary can be decided…especially if the only congressional primary in the 10th is a republican primary. Hopefully the dems will show up and vote their interests. Which, in the long run, is to vote for Broun…not Fleming. Broun is older and can not hold that seat as easily as Fleming.

  6. Romegaguy says:

    But if she were to get elected to Congress or someone were to get elected to her State Senate seat, is there a guarantee that they would be sworn in?

  7. bowersville says:

    Nancy Schaefer just released an email press release that she will not seek re-election in the 50th Senate of Georgia but will qualify and seek election to the 10th Congressional seat.

  8. bowersville says:

    Tommy, if you haven’t got an answer to your email, it is up at thenortheastgeorgian.com

  9. juliobarrios says:

    Since there are runoffs, I’m not sure how Shaefer getting in affects the race. The congressional race will be the most high-profile race in that area. You could argue that they’ll be some drop-off between general and runoff and the runoff voters might be more hardcore. I just don’t know how much drop-off there will be due to the high-profile nature of the race.

    Maybe the runoff benefits the candidate who has the better organization, with more actual identified supporters, who can be called upon for a guaranteed vote in the runoff.

  10. Goldwater Conservative says:

    That is a distinct possibility julio. This benefits Barry Fleming. With an establishment at his back he will be able to raise money much quicker and in larger quantities in those last days before the primary and before the runoff (if one occurs). Broun will be stuck calling the same old, financially worn out ideologues and family friends…which are not as numerous. Put simply…Fleming is the candidate that can afford the organization and media. Obviously this quarter will be slow, he is not allowed to raise (i do not think he can at least) while in session. That day that the session is over though…watch out.

  11. profg says:

    If there’s no good primary on the Dem side, look for the Dems around Athens to come out and vote for Broun again in the GOP primary. They can’t stand Fleming (just another Augusta guy – Whitehead Jr. to them), and they despise Nancy (which is funny, since she holds most of the same positions as Broun). As the “establishment candidate” in the north, Nancy will take a lot of “southern establishment candidate” Barry’s steam out in the northern counties, where he was just starting to make inroads (I personally know several of the Fleming campaign’s recently announced “county chairs” who almost worship Nancy, and will either jump ship now or do nothing for the next five months).

    At this stage, it looks like a runoff for sure, between Fleming and Broun or Schaefer. And like last time, the Augusta boy will probably win a plurality in the primary, and lose in the runoff.

    Maybe Joel Mac can come work his magic again, like last time?

  12. ProfG says:

    drjay -Do you mean the state senate primary? Schaefer’s senate district does not include Athens. The dems there recognize they’re stuck with Hudgens.

    If you mean the US senate primary – seriously?

  13. juliobarrios says:

    Along with Dr Jay’s thinking, I don’t think near the amount of Democrats will cross over and vote for Broun in the upcoming election. It’s a lot easier to vote for Broun in an open election (with no primary ballots), than it is to actually ask for a Republican ballot on Primary day. Imagine what your Athens latte drinking buddies would think if they saw you pulling a Republican ballot.

    I know folks did it for Cynthia McKinney, but Cynthia was the kind of politician that inspired exceptions.

  14. drjay says:

    yes i “seriously” meant the u.s. senate primary-many dems in athen may actually have a preference there-also –will there be more than one dem on the ballot for the 10th nomination?–athenians may also have an opinion about that –in the special last year there was only 1 show in town, that won’t be the case in july…

  15. ProfG says:

    drjay, I’m not saying it will definitely happen. I’m saying it’s likely that Athens dems will choose to keep Fleming out, rather than go down in flames on Jones, Cardwell, Knight, Lanier, or Martinez.

    And juliobarrios, they said the same thing during the Special, and those dems poured into the booths to keep Whitehead out. They’re pretty much ticked off at Augusta there.

  16. Goldwater Conservative says:

    Lets just hope that the democratic vote does not think about their decision and just vote in their own primary. We are much better off with Fleming than with Broun. With Fleming, the tenth will get some federal funds and not have a congressman embarassing the district. We will also have a congressman that can be around long enough to get some seniority and respect from the party…hopefully some favorable committee assignments will come along with it. Point is, while the Dems will hold onto the majority for another few sessions (most likely), if and when the GOP gets it back Fleming will be really able to help out Georgia.
    The Dems in the tenth really do not have anything to look forward to, unless someone jumps in in the next several weeks. That dead beat bobby saxon will not be able to compete…he has no money. The tenth can not be won by a Democrat, so the liklihood of a local or state elected official resigning to run is quite low.
    There was a time when the Democrats put out good candidates…what happened? All the Senate candidates are losers and the 10CD candidate is a loser. For the past few election cycles the dems have put out lackluster candidates for the 10th.

  17. juliobarrios says:

    I’ll try to be more specific as to why I think comparing Democrat crossover in the Special versus the upcoming General is an exercise in futility.

    I don’t know what “they” said, but the circumstances are very different. In the Special the voters did not have to declare Party affiliation. There was no primary so everybody was on the same ballot. Since two Republicans were in the runoff it made perfect sense for Democrats to vote for the lesser of two evils in the runoff. The Democrats had a free-ticket to vote in the runoff since there was no Primary.

    In this upcoming GOP Primary, voters will have to declare Party affiliation. They will have to ask for the Dem or the GOP ballot (or a non-partisan ballot which basically gives them the opportunity to vote for judges and referendums).

    If a Democrat wants to vote for Broun, he/she will have to ask for a GOP ballot and go on record as voting in that election. Some may crossover, but it’s not nearly as easy as the previous Special election.

    If there is a Primary runoff, the only people who will be allowed to vote in it will be those who voted on the Republican ballot in the General Primary. So other then the few Democrats who made a premeditated decision to originally vote in the GOP Primary, the runoff will be pure Republican – no Dems will be allowed to crossover and vote for the “lesser of two evils”.

  18. ProfG says:

    juliobarrios – good points, and I can see the disincentive to pulling a GOP ballot. However, I can also see strong incentive for Athens dems to pull one in order to make sure the Augusta crowd doesn’t retake control. Seriously, there is NO love lost there.

  19. ProfG says:

    Ah, yes:

    “With Fleming, the tenth will get some federal funds and not have a congressman embarassing the district. We will also have a congressman that can be around long enough to get some seniority and respect from the party…hopefully some favorable committee assignments will come along with it. Point is, while the Dems will hold onto the majority for another few sessions (most likely), if and when the GOP gets it back Fleming will be really able to help out Georgia.”

    Spoken like a true Nixon Conservative. As if the point of electing a congressman was to “bring home the pork” and the power of committee assignments to “help out Georgia”. Where does that appear in the enumerated powers of the Constitution?

    Barry is rolling over in his grave right about now.

  20. ProfG says:

    And don’t forget, with the next reapportionment, Augusta will more than likely be separated from north Georgia. Bye-bye to the “seniority” of the Augusta boy.

  21. Holly says:

    And don’t forget, with the next reapportionment, Augusta will more than likely be separated from north Georgia. Bye-bye to the “seniority” of the Augusta boy.

    This comment confuses me, Bill. Redistricting doesn’t cost an incumbent of any variety their seniority or incumbent status.

  22. bowersville says:

    I wouldn’t pay Goldwater Conservative much attention. His/her moniker is a misnomer. He/she is a Democrat if I’ve ever seen one.

  23. ProfG says:

    Sorry, Holly, I meant that seniority would escape the folks of north Georgia, since they would no longer have the Augusta boy as their Congressman. So “seniority” isn’t really an incentive for north Georgia folks to vote for him.

  24. Holly says:

    Oh, I see.

    I don’t know what the folks in north Georgia will choose to do election-wise, but I do know that Broun won those counties in the run-off. If they switch from Broun to Schaefer to avoid having an Augustan represent them in Congress, then I’m pretty sure that helps Barry Fleming because I think Broun will still win Athens.

    Also, I believe that all politics is local, but any serious candidate must compete district-wide. While I’d understand coming out and saying that what matters in the election are local issues (NBAF, UGA, medical college expansion, SRS, the three lakes, Fort Gordon, etc.), I’m not sure the best way to start off a campaign is telling the folks from one of the large population centers that you want the seat to be a “north Georgia seat.” Does that mean you don’t want to represent Augusta at all? What about Athens, or are they part of “north Georgia?” Pitting part of the district against the other hasn’t worked well in the past.

  25. bowersville says:

    For those that may not have read the article, Nancy Schaefer was quoted at the AJC Political Insider, “We feel it’s a good opportunity for me to represent North Georgia. Most Georgians want change right now. They’d like it to be a North Georgia seat—-not a seat from Augusta.”

  26. bowersville says:

    Also, if you consider how quick two residents from Haberasham County announced for the 50th Senate, one has to wonder how many people outside of Habersham County were aware that a Senate seat was being vacated in the 50th.

  27. drjay says:

    that does seem to imply an animosity for augusta that i do not think Dr. Norwood ever had for other parts of his district–and its not a seat from augusta right now anyway–is she unaware of the current member’s residence?? it is odd how this race is shaping up…its too bad whitehead did not stay in the senate and flemming did not run last year…

  28. ProfG says:

    I think Schaefer said that because she lacks faith in Broun holding onto the seat (the assumption being, therefore, that Fleming would win it). :/

    But to be clear, there really is “animosity for augusta” in north Georgia. Broun was able to tap into it, which helped him to win (along with thousands of Athens dems coming out for him).

  29. drjay says:

    i know the district changed a few times between 94 and 06, it has been both the 10th and the 9th at various times but he carried habersham 3to1 in both 06 and 04

  30. bowersville says:

    The resentment began to build in the Special Election and especially in the runoff. Broun was everywhere and Whitehead was believed to be MIA, with the exception of the Augusta area.

    So it was percieved by the voters, rightly or wrongly, that Whitehead was totally dependent on the Augusta area to be elected to Congress. They resented it.

    Broun capitalized on the resentment and never let up on his campaigning.

    The resentment had nothing to do with Dr. Norwood.

  31. Goldwater Conservative says:

    If Fleming gets elected, Mr. Greene, Augusta will remain in his district. Stop calling me Nixon, and I can not say that I am necessarily proud of being a democrat in this cycle, but the GOP leaves me no choice. If you actually knew Barry before he was senile you would not say such things.

  32. ProfG says:

    Nixon Conservative – everyone who knows anything knows that the 10th district will be split at the next redistricting. Which I guess is why you didn’t know. And all I have to do is contrast Barry’s words with yours, and compare Nixon’s words to yours, and – presto – there you are. :)>-

  33. bowersville says:

    “…the 10th district will be split at the next redistricting.”

    Now we are getting somewhere and that brings on the question. Did Schaefer jump the starting line too soon or did she mis-read the tea leaves?

  34. ProfG says:

    Schaefer almost jumped in during the Special. In fact, after she went to DC and met with all the usual suspects up there, we all assumed she would. Sort of surprised when she didn’t.

    And GC – sorry about the slam there. 🙂

  35. rabuncountyman says:

    I believe Nancy is 70 years old. She is a poor campaigner and fund raiser. I heard she still has debt from her past Senate campaign. She has a high school diploma from Toccoa high school. To top it all off she has her husband as a political adviser. I understand from friends that everyone should spend time with Bruce. To top it off, Nancy almost lost a secure GOP seat to Carol Jackson in a strong GOP district. She is not a strong campaigner. Her only chance is to go to Columbia county and start door to door work. Take the fight to the trial lawyer.

    I don’t think she hurts Dr. Broun. Those who appreciate the Constitution and understand the fact that we live in a Republic are with him.

  36. Goldwater Conservative says:

    That is ok, Mr. Greene. I too believe that the district will be split, but in a different way. The state GOP got too greedy when they last redistricted. They went after both Barrow and Marshall. If they had focused on one or the other, they would have been successful.

    What to do with the 10th is difficult because the population outside of Augusta and Athens is very dispersed. If I had the opportunity to consult our legislators…well, I would probably try to make every district a swing district. The GOP’s best move would probably be forcing Athens to be split into two different districts. Considering we will most likely be picking up a new district after the census, this should not be too difficult.

    If all of Savannah were in Kingston’s district, and the remaining parts of Richmond were taken out of Barrow’s…Barrow would probably not win when challenged by a financed Republican.

    Either Augusta or Athens will be taken out of the district though…which city is decided upon is dependant on who (Broun or Fleming) is elected. I do believe that my preferences have been stated, and they happen to coincide with my prognostications.

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