All in all a good showing for Ron Paul. He won 1 couny, placed second in 4 and 3rd in 12. Here are two links that show county by county results: Link 1 Link 2
If I ever have to live in Iowa, I know where to go; Libertyville,IA Jefferson county.
Thompson came in third and McCain came in fourth. Which is huge for Thompson for as little time as he’s been a candidate compared to McCain – who has basically been running for the last 12 years.
The last time a self-proclaimed evangelical Christian was elected President of this country was 2000.
You folks who think this country will trust another one after the “do as I say, not as I do” example set by the Bush Administration are, truly, smoking dope, whether literally or figuratively.
I’ve not seen any internals, but it does seem that if anyone turned out some ‘new’ people, it was Huckabee, just based on the fact that there were 40,000 to 50,000 more gop caucus voters than projected, and that he won convincingly.
Ron Paul was basically a flop, given all the claims of support. But he *did* go from being a 1,000 vote candidate to a 10,000 vote candidate, and that was interesting. I assume half of these are people who are not ‘regulars’. Kudos.
But the GOP intensity is not there based on the overall numbers. Huckabee is the candidate of “default” right now — the one who is not Rudy or Romney, yet who seems to want the job. Could have been, should have been, my guy Thompson.
Whether you agree with these proposals or not, this could have been Fred’s marketing niche:
1. Openly campaigning on the Fair Tax as his #1 proposal and plan (which Huck supports but doesn’t talk much about);
2. Fred could campaign as a 100% “secure our borders” guy (the other ‘real’ candidates really aren’t);
3. Consistently pointing out that the other major candidates are “fakes”, and using the word to SAY so. Frankly, conservatives pretty much thinks that already. But no major candidate says so.
The famous Jack Kemp line, when Kemp came to Atlanta to the GOP ’88 debate, was “if you nominate George Bush, the Reagan Revolution is dead” (meaning Bush #1,). Kemp was right, and it was his only real applause of the whole debate. Too bad for him he didn’t say to earlier in that race.
If you thank about it, the results was expected as for the GOP. Even though Iowa is a GOP state, it is also the subsidy capital of all the states. In NH the fiscal minded conservatives out number the evangelical conservative and will be a better test for the McCain, Thompson and Paul. We’ll also see if the Party leadership and insders stick with Romney or jump ship. And if they jump, where do they land.
The reason nobody campaigns on the Fair Tax is because everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message. You can bet that every campaign has considered it.
Thompson is a lousy candidate even if he has the right conservative message on immigration, abortion and taxes. He’s been trending downward in NH since August. McCain and Romney are likely to finish 1 or 2 in NH. Huckabee gets a modest bounce and holds third. To finish 4th, Thmpson still has to overcome Rudi and Paul who are both polling ahead of him. He is in danger of beating only Duncan Hunter! After a showing of somewhere between 4th and 6th in NH, Thompson will not survive past SC.
Brian, the difference between Romney’s repuditation and Iowa and the others is the simple fact Romney spent more time and money in Iowa than probably the others combines. Rudy didn’t even contest Iowa. People generally don’t vote for people who don’t ask for their vote, but Iowa wasn’t Rudy’s strategy.
Most people ARE saying that 60% of Democrats in Iowa voted against the Clinton machine…not that it was a conscience decision like, “Hey, I want to vote against the Clinton Machine…now who do I pick?”
It was just the machine did not attract them.
Romney threw millions of his own dollars into the race and became the early frontrunner.
Most Republicans, check that, most Americans, don’t like the idea of someone trying to buy their way into the White House. George W. Bush probably was just as wealthy as Forbes and Kerry in 2004, but Forbes and Kerry were seen as the ones with silver spoons in their mouth.
Most Americans want a President who is like their co-worker, not their boss.
People say Huck reminds them of them, and Romney reminds them of their boss. Think about Roy Barnes in 2002. You can throw all the money you want into a race, but if you’re not likeable, you won’t win.
Like Barnes, Romney overloaded the airwaves. He went negative, hard, and ticked people off. He looked more like mean Mr. Potter going after George Bailey than the next President of the United States (wonder if Romney aired any of those negative ads during “It’s a Wonderful Life” in Iowa).
I will also agree with Mark in that Huck has the mantel that should have gone to Fred. I still think Fred is the best candidate on paper, but his campaign has all of the energy of a dead battery and the organization of D.C. traffic circle.
He is making the mistakes folks like Rudy, Mitt, McCain, etc made months ago and have had time to correct.
The trouble for Fred is this is not the dress rehearsal, this is opening night and missed stage directions or lines can mean an early curtain for the Fred Thompson show.
Once these votes are over, their over. He can’t exactly say, “Hey, I think I can do Iowa a little better. How about a 2nd take?”
Six in 10 GOP voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and by far the largest share _almost half _supported Huckabee. Romney led among non-evangelical voters, getting a third of their support.
More than a third of Republicans said having the same religious beliefs as their candidate was very important, and of that group just over half favored Huckabee.
Yeah, that upcoming Fox debate is pretty shameful. It’s one thing to exclude candidates who do not meet some defined threshold. It’s another thing to cherry pick and exclude candidates based on ideology. Paul is polling 3 to 4 times Fred’s numbers in New Hampshire, and has dramatically outdone him in fundraising, but Thompson DOES meet the “criteria”. What a joke.
I hate doing this, but I have to admit that I was wrong about Thompson. I thought his campaign was DOA. It isn’t exactly full of life, but at least he still has something on which to build.
Ron Paul was very impressive. He’ll do even better in NH. Early predictions for NH:
Republicans:
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Rudy Giuliani
Democrats:
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
I think Rudy will do better in NH because it is a primary, and a less percentage of the voters will be from “abortion is the only issue of importance” crowd. However, he will not do well, and I have him in the lower half.
McCain will win it this time, as he seems to resonate in NH, and it is why I think he is the most likely to carry the general election, because of this appeal to “moderates”. Sadly, he is just so wrong on the issues most important to me, like immigration reform and free speach (McCain-Feingold).
Like I said before, Huckabee will play well in caucuses from more religious states like Iowa, and in primaries in some southern states, but will fall flat in places where there is more seperation between religion and politics. Publicity from Iowa, however, will carry him to win at least a bronze medal in NH, but probably a silver, the other one on the podium will be Romney.
Beyond that, everyone else is a crap shoot, and will place in random order.
Paul is a special case, as I think he attracts a different type of voter, so it is impossible to know where he will finish from state to state. I think he will do better in caucuses because of the lower turnout, and devotion that is required of voters to participate. I do not think Paul attracts a lot of voters from the “mainstream” so his voters will number the same whether caucus or primary, but will be watered down by the unwashed casual voters in an easy to vote primary.
On the Dem side, I think Obama takes it, but it will still be a close three way race. I think that there are enough Democrats who think that the country will not elect a minority to the Presidency to keep Edwards alive in the race a lot longer than he should ever be, so it will remian a three way for a while.
I was referring to the political advantages of the Fair Tax in the Republican primary. It’s clearly a political winner in a Republican primary, especially when seeking to differentiate. The general election would be tougher, yes, because it’s an easy issue to demagogue.
You wrote, “everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message”.
Does this count Dr. Dale Jorgen, chairman of the Harvard Economics Department?
And as for a campaign message, does your calculation include the 60 US Congressman who are co-sponsors of it? Might have missed that…
Did it include the tens of thousands of “Fair Tax” bumper stickers on people’s cars? Or the fact that the book became #1 on the NY Times list?
Boomers are damn fools to support the so-called Fair Tax – we were taxed when we earned our money, now Lindner and Boortz and the amalgamated morons of the GOP want to tax us when we spend it, too.
Of course, we are all damn fools to pay into Social Security, especially gen Xers and millenials – the system was bled dry by the misnamed Greatest Generation, who robbed their children’s futures to pay for their cushy retirements out of some weird sense of entitlement to other peoples’ money…
I still think Romney places 2nd in NH. Huck placing 2nd would almost be as good, if not better, than an outright win.
The biggest concern I have is the slash-and-burn Romney machine doing so much damage to McCain and Huck that they will be unelectable.
HRC has to win NH. Bill can say all he wants that he didn’t win until he came to GA, but Bill was a little known former governor from Arkansas, not the former First Lady and NY Senator who has been the Dem. frontrunner since Jan. 20, 2001.
Iowa voters are not always bad decision makers and they don’t always pick the most conservative (or most liberal).
Winners have been…
1972: “Uncommitted” beat Muskie causing him to cry and push 3rd place finisher, McGovern, to the nomination.
1976: Carter (eventual winner); Reagan challenged Ford (eventual nominee and only challenge to an incumbent Pres.) and lost.
1980: George H. W. Bush (eventual VP and moderate to RWR’s eventual conservative revolution).
1984: Mondale (eventual nominee)
1988: Dole and Pat Robertson beat GHW Bush; Dick Gephart and Paul Simon (not the singer for you younger bloggers) beat Dukakis.
1992: Home boy Tom Harkin with Uncommitted, Tsongas and Clinton following.
1996: Dole (eventual nominee)
2000: Bush and Gore (eventual nominees)
2004: Kerry (eventual nominee) followed Edwards (eventual VP nominee) followed by Dean (eventual scream)
If you look at modern history, Iowa has been a good predictor. Overall, Iowa has not been that bad. Taking a look at the caucus (and removing the years when an incumbent was unchallenged), it has predicted the winner of the nomination 57% (4 of 7) of the time for Dems and 60% (3 of 5) of the time for the GOP.
New Hampshire has had the same results as a percentage of winners going to get the nomination, but has not predicted the GOP nominee since 1988′s win by Bush (though on the Dem side Gore and Kerry were winners in 2000 and 2004).
As for taking a pass like Rudy did, he should have taken note of Joe Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark, at one time considered the leading candidates for the Democrats. They both took passes on Iowa and never recovered.
Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain’s people are generally positive as are Rudy’s.
Remember, you get more flies with honey than vinegar. Republicans especially should be looking to explain why their candidate is the best, not tear down the other GOP candidates until our own people won’t even vote for them.
Tell me why your candidate is better, not why mine sucks! You want me to circle the wagons faster, attack my guy. Nothing helps me think more of mine and less of yours than that.
Record does matter especially when a candidate tries to disort it as Huckabee does. I can see why Huckabee’s supporters would like to ignore his record though. The record is coming out sooner or later, might as well come out now before it is too late.
Huckabee supporters that claim that true Christians support Huckabee and that Huckabee is the only true Christian in the race drive people away.
The high turnout was primarily composed of younger voters…Fantastic!!!
America is showing the World that we are capable of choosing our next President from a pool of candidates including a woman and an African American. This is HUGE!
Fred does have a plan to reform the tax code. He need to start touting it.
From Fred08:
Expand Taxpayer Choice. The Thompson plan would give Americans greater choice about how to pay their federal taxes. This plan is based on a proposal developed by the House of Representatives Republican Study Committee that would provide taxpayers the option of remaining under the current, complex tax code or opting for a simplified, flat tax code. The simplified tax code would contain two tax rates: 10% for joint filers on income of up to $100,000 ($50,000 for singles) and 25% on income above these amounts. The standard deduction would be more than doubled to $25,000 for joint filers and $12,500 for singles. The personal exemption amount would be increased to $3,500. Therefore, a family of 4 would be exempt from income tax on the first $39,000 of income. The simplified tax code would contain no other tax credits or deductions. It would also retain the 15% tax rate on capital gains and dividends. This approach would dramatically simplify taxes for tens of millions of Americans. In addition, the larger standard deduction and personal exemption amounts will still provide significant tax relief to families with children. This proposal would serve as a stepping-stone to fundamental tax reform.
That’s too much to read and comprehend for the people who only know to tell you to “go read Boortz’s book” in answer to any challenge of the Fair???? Tax bill.
Debbie, you know why no one is attacking Fred? Because no one sees Fred as a threat. Same reason no one is bothering with Duncan Hunter. (We bother with Ron Paul just because it’s so much fun to see his supporters get into a frenzy).
No, Reed’s vitriol was enough. I didn’t need his supporters, who were rarely positive.
By the way Bill, I would expect a better analysis of logic from a Tech grad…of course, Tech grads are not as logical as their hero, Mr. Spock, regardless of how many of them own Vulcan ears and can d the “live long and prosper” thing with their hand. If you don’t believe me, simply listen to their rhetoric around the last weekend in November. Absolutely no logic to be found!
Ralph Reed is the king of negative campaigning. The reason he lost is it caught up with him bottom line. Rational people did not like the racist attacks on John McCain that Ralph did and you supported. I have been outspoken about McCain and immigration, but to attack people they way you guys went after McCain and other via Reed tactics is wrong!
Iowa demonstrated the mood of the country is feed up with the hate people like you spew. It did not work for Romney or Hillary!
My hubby is a UGA graduate so I do cheer for Georgia when they are not playing Alabama to keep peace in the family. I do like Georgia Tech as well. If memory serves me correctly, GT was the last Georgia team to win a national championship..
Jason, you went over the top when you made fun of Mr. Spock Some GT graduate will come up behind you and suprise you with the old Vulcan nerve pinch if you don’t watch out.
I bet you didn’t like Lord of the Rings or The Matrix either…
I’m with you on negative campaigning. Voters are sick of it. The Iowa voters were bombarded with political ads. Those that went negative like Romney were punished. Huckabee’s news conference announcing he was pulling negative ads was rewarded.
HRC will be tempted to go negative against Obama. When she does, it will cost her. She’ll appear to be from the old school and it will revive the Clinton fatique.
This is an election about competancy, change and uniting the country. Wedge issues and negative campaigns used so effectively in the past by Rove, Reed and Atwater won’t work.
Man oh man, wait ’til the Clinton machine gets to SC to wage war on Obama there. Yikes. Even poor Lee Atwater’s ghost should be shakin’ by now.
And Erick, hon. Seems Matt’s pollin’ was right all along. First to call Huckabee… Last minute IA poll showed Obama ahead. Time to refresh the ‘tude, eh?
I have been a GOP activist since 1976. Every election cycle I hear, “Voters are sick of negative campaigning and it will backfire this time.”
You know what you still have negative campaigning because it works. It will continue as long as it works..
It did not work in Iowa because the voters cast their vote for Huckabee because Huckabee touted his religion. 6 in 10 were evangelicals. They were mostly one issue voters. They could care less about Hucksters record or the fact he is a fiscal liberal. They just like what they heard from Huckabee.
Other states are not like Iowa. It will be interesting to see how the Huckster holds up under negative campaigning in other states.
The way Huckster conducted his campaign in Iowa will hurt him in other states.
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All in all a good showing for Ron Paul. He won 1 couny, placed second in 4 and 3rd in 12. Here are two links that show county by county results:
Link 1
Link 2
If I ever have to live in Iowa, I know where to go; Libertyville,IA Jefferson county.
…quit drinking and say it with me ,
Mark Roundtree, the same dynamic that nuked us in
Thompson came in third and McCain came in fourth. Which is huge for Thompson for as little time as he’s been a candidate compared to McCain – who has basically been running for the last 12 years.
The last time a self-proclaimed evangelical Christian was elected President of this country was 2000.
You folks who think this country will trust another one after the “do as I say, not as I do” example set by the Bush Administration are, truly, smoking dope, whether literally or figuratively.
I’ve not seen any internals, but it does seem that if anyone turned out some ‘new’ people, it was Huckabee, just based on the fact that there were 40,000 to 50,000 more gop caucus voters than projected, and that he won convincingly.
Ron Paul was basically a flop, given all the claims of support. But he *did* go from being a 1,000 vote candidate to a 10,000 vote candidate, and that was interesting. I assume half of these are people who are not ‘regulars’. Kudos.
But the GOP intensity is not there based on the overall numbers. Huckabee is the candidate of “default” right now — the one who is not Rudy or Romney, yet who seems to want the job. Could have been, should have been, my guy Thompson.
Whether you agree with these proposals or not, this could have been Fred’s marketing niche:
1. Openly campaigning on the Fair Tax as his #1 proposal and plan (which Huck supports but doesn’t talk much about);
2. Fred could campaign as a 100% “secure our borders” guy (the other ‘real’ candidates really aren’t);
3. Consistently pointing out that the other major candidates are “fakes”, and using the word to SAY so. Frankly, conservatives pretty much thinks that already. But no major candidate says so.
The famous Jack Kemp line, when Kemp came to Atlanta to the GOP ’88 debate, was “if you nominate George Bush, the Reagan Revolution is dead” (meaning Bush #1,). Kemp was right, and it was his only real applause of the whole debate. Too bad for him he didn’t say to earlier in that race.
It’s not too late.
Maurice, you mentioned political corruption. Huckabee was named by Judicial Watch as one the top ten most corrupt politicians in Washington in 2007.
And then there are the gifts:
http://www.swtimes.com/articles/2006/11/13/week_in_review/news/saturday/news09.txt&reason=0
Monday, November 13, 2006 12:13 PM CST
Huckabees Registered For Gifts
By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau
If you thank about it, the results was expected as for the GOP. Even though Iowa is a GOP state, it is also the subsidy capital of all the states. In NH the fiscal minded conservatives out number the evangelical conservative and will be a better test for the McCain, Thompson and Paul. We’ll also see if the Party leadership and insders stick with Romney or jump ship. And if they jump, where do they land.
Mark, See my 12.03 AM post regarding turnout.
The reason nobody campaigns on the Fair Tax is because everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message. You can bet that every campaign has considered it.
Thompson is a lousy candidate even if he has the right conservative message on immigration, abortion and taxes. He’s been trending downward in NH since August. McCain and Romney are likely to finish 1 or 2 in NH. Huckabee gets a modest bounce and holds third. To finish 4th, Thmpson still has to overcome Rudi and Paul who are both polling ahead of him. He is in danger of beating only Duncan Hunter! After a showing of somewhere between 4th and 6th in NH, Thompson will not survive past SC.
Brian, the difference between Romney’s repuditation and Iowa and the others is the simple fact Romney spent more time and money in Iowa than probably the others combines. Rudy didn’t even contest Iowa. People generally don’t vote for people who don’t ask for their vote, but Iowa wasn’t Rudy’s strategy.
Most people ARE saying that 60% of Democrats in Iowa voted against the Clinton machine…not that it was a conscience decision like, “Hey, I want to vote against the Clinton Machine…now who do I pick?”
It was just the machine did not attract them.
Romney threw millions of his own dollars into the race and became the early frontrunner.
Most Republicans, check that, most Americans, don’t like the idea of someone trying to buy their way into the White House. George W. Bush probably was just as wealthy as Forbes and Kerry in 2004, but Forbes and Kerry were seen as the ones with silver spoons in their mouth.
Most Americans want a President who is like their co-worker, not their boss.
People say Huck reminds them of them, and Romney reminds them of their boss. Think about Roy Barnes in 2002. You can throw all the money you want into a race, but if you’re not likeable, you won’t win.
Like Barnes, Romney overloaded the airwaves. He went negative, hard, and ticked people off. He looked more like mean Mr. Potter going after George Bailey than the next President of the United States (wonder if Romney aired any of those negative ads during “It’s a Wonderful Life” in Iowa).
I will also agree with Mark in that Huck has the mantel that should have gone to Fred. I still think Fred is the best candidate on paper, but his campaign has all of the energy of a dead battery and the organization of D.C. traffic circle.
He is making the mistakes folks like Rudy, Mitt, McCain, etc made months ago and have had time to correct.
The trouble for Fred is this is not the dress rehearsal, this is opening night and missed stage directions or lines can mean an early curtain for the Fred Thompson show.
Once these votes are over, their over. He can’t exactly say, “Hey, I think I can do Iowa a little better. How about a 2nd take?”
“Iowa Caucus starring Fred Thompson, take 2!”
Politics doesn’t work like that.
FOX News is holding a debate on Sunday, but they have excluded Ron Paul from appearing. What happened to “We report. You decide.”???
The states that have yet to hold primaries are not like Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/caucus_poll_glance
Six in 10 GOP voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and by far the largest share _almost half _supported Huckabee. Romney led among non-evangelical voters, getting a third of their support.
More than a third of Republicans said having the same religious beliefs as their candidate was very important, and of that group just over half favored Huckabee.
Huckabee’s message to Georgians:
http://www.peachpundit.com/2008/01/04/huckabee-sends-a-message-to-georgians/
Yeah, that upcoming Fox debate is pretty shameful. It’s one thing to exclude candidates who do not meet some defined threshold. It’s another thing to cherry pick and exclude candidates based on ideology. Paul is polling 3 to 4 times Fred’s numbers in New Hampshire, and has dramatically outdone him in fundraising, but Thompson DOES meet the “criteria”. What a joke.
You’re right Steve. It is shameful. I learned long ago that “Fair and Balanced” is just a catchy slogan.
I hate doing this, but I have to admit that I was wrong about Thompson. I thought his campaign was DOA. It isn’t exactly full of life, but at least he still has something on which to build.
Ron Paul was very impressive. He’ll do even better in NH. Early predictions for NH:
Republicans:
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Rudy Giuliani
Democrats:
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Jace,
I think Rudy will do better in NH because it is a primary, and a less percentage of the voters will be from “abortion is the only issue of importance” crowd. However, he will not do well, and I have him in the lower half.
McCain will win it this time, as he seems to resonate in NH, and it is why I think he is the most likely to carry the general election, because of this appeal to “moderates”. Sadly, he is just so wrong on the issues most important to me, like immigration reform and free speach (McCain-Feingold).
Like I said before, Huckabee will play well in caucuses from more religious states like Iowa, and in primaries in some southern states, but will fall flat in places where there is more seperation between religion and politics. Publicity from Iowa, however, will carry him to win at least a bronze medal in NH, but probably a silver, the other one on the podium will be Romney.
Beyond that, everyone else is a crap shoot, and will place in random order.
Paul is a special case, as I think he attracts a different type of voter, so it is impossible to know where he will finish from state to state. I think he will do better in caucuses because of the lower turnout, and devotion that is required of voters to participate. I do not think Paul attracts a lot of voters from the “mainstream” so his voters will number the same whether caucus or primary, but will be watered down by the unwashed casual voters in an easy to vote primary.
On the Dem side, I think Obama takes it, but it will still be a close three way race. I think that there are enough Democrats who think that the country will not elect a minority to the Presidency to keep Edwards alive in the race a lot longer than he should ever be, so it will remian a three way for a while.
The stupid and superstitious have spoken – they said “Give us the televangelist. GIVE US THE HUCKLEBERRY!”
Yeehaw!
It will get fun when they make evolution an issue.
Still Looking,
I was referring to the political advantages of the Fair Tax in the Republican primary. It’s clearly a political winner in a Republican primary, especially when seeking to differentiate. The general election would be tougher, yes, because it’s an easy issue to demagogue.
You wrote, “everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message”.
Does this count Dr. Dale Jorgen, chairman of the Harvard Economics Department?
And as for a campaign message, does your calculation include the 60 US Congressman who are co-sponsors of it? Might have missed that…
Did it include the tens of thousands of “Fair Tax” bumper stickers on people’s cars? Or the fact that the book became #1 on the NY Times list?
hmmm…you might be missing something here…
Huckabee Win May Be a Fluke
http://www.newsmax.com/kessler/Huckabee_fluke/2008/01/04/61744.html
Correction: actually, 66 congressional co-sponsors and 4 US Senators.
Waterboy
I never said I supported Huckabee. But people like you and Debbie are helping him with your nasty comments!
I will repeat Ron Paul, Huckabee and Obama should thank people like you for all the voters you guys drove to them!
You guys are better than paid staff!
Proof is in the pudding: No presidential candidate is running on it.
Boomers are damn fools to support the so-called Fair Tax – we were taxed when we earned our money, now Lindner and Boortz and the amalgamated morons of the GOP want to tax us when we spend it, too.
Of course, we are all damn fools to pay into Social Security, especially gen Xers and millenials – the system was bled dry by the misnamed Greatest Generation, who robbed their children’s futures to pay for their cushy retirements out of some weird sense of entitlement to other peoples’ money…
I still think Romney places 2nd in NH. Huck placing 2nd would almost be as good, if not better, than an outright win.
The biggest concern I have is the slash-and-burn Romney machine doing so much damage to McCain and Huck that they will be unelectable.
HRC has to win NH. Bill can say all he wants that he didn’t win until he came to GA, but Bill was a little known former governor from Arkansas, not the former First Lady and NY Senator who has been the Dem. frontrunner since Jan. 20, 2001.
Iowa voters are not always bad decision makers and they don’t always pick the most conservative (or most liberal).
Winners have been…
1972: “Uncommitted” beat Muskie causing him to cry and push 3rd place finisher, McGovern, to the nomination.
1976: Carter (eventual winner); Reagan challenged Ford (eventual nominee and only challenge to an incumbent Pres.) and lost.
1980: George H. W. Bush (eventual VP and moderate to RWR’s eventual conservative revolution).
1984: Mondale (eventual nominee)
1988: Dole and Pat Robertson beat GHW Bush; Dick Gephart and Paul Simon (not the singer for you younger bloggers) beat Dukakis.
1992: Home boy Tom Harkin with Uncommitted, Tsongas and Clinton following.
1996: Dole (eventual nominee)
2000: Bush and Gore (eventual nominees)
2004: Kerry (eventual nominee) followed Edwards (eventual VP nominee) followed by Dean (eventual scream)
If you look at modern history, Iowa has been a good predictor. Overall, Iowa has not been that bad. Taking a look at the caucus (and removing the years when an incumbent was unchallenged), it has predicted the winner of the nomination 57% (4 of 7) of the time for Dems and 60% (3 of 5) of the time for the GOP.
New Hampshire has had the same results as a percentage of winners going to get the nomination, but has not predicted the GOP nominee since 1988′s win by Bush (though on the Dem side Gore and Kerry were winners in 2000 and 2004).
As for taking a pass like Rudy did, he should have taken note of Joe Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark, at one time considered the leading candidates for the Democrats. They both took passes on Iowa and never recovered.
Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain’s people are generally positive as are Rudy’s.
Remember, you get more flies with honey than vinegar. Republicans especially should be looking to explain why their candidate is the best, not tear down the other GOP candidates until our own people won’t even vote for them.
Tell me why your candidate is better, not why mine sucks! You want me to circle the wagons faster, attack my guy. Nothing helps me think more of mine and less of yours than that.
I’ll give the same advice to the Dems.
Record does matter especially when a candidate tries to disort it as Huckabee does. I can see why Huckabee’s supporters would like to ignore his record though. The record is coming out sooner or later, might as well come out now before it is too late.
Huckabee supporters that claim that true Christians support Huckabee and that Huckabee is the only true Christian in the race drive people away.
The Lt. governor’s race in 2006 proved that negative campaigning does work…
What is truly amazing:
The high turnout was primarily composed of younger voters…Fantastic!!!
America is showing the World that we are capable of choosing our next President from a pool of candidates including a woman and an African American. This is HUGE!
2008 is gonna be great!
Fred does have a plan to reform the tax code. He need to start touting it.
From Fred08:
Expand Taxpayer Choice. The Thompson plan would give Americans greater choice about how to pay their federal taxes. This plan is based on a proposal developed by the House of Representatives Republican Study Committee that would provide taxpayers the option of remaining under the current, complex tax code or opting for a simplified, flat tax code. The simplified tax code would contain two tax rates: 10% for joint filers on income of up to $100,000 ($50,000 for singles) and 25% on income above these amounts. The standard deduction would be more than doubled to $25,000 for joint filers and $12,500 for singles. The personal exemption amount would be increased to $3,500. Therefore, a family of 4 would be exempt from income tax on the first $39,000 of income. The simplified tax code would contain no other tax credits or deductions. It would also retain the 15% tax rate on capital gains and dividends. This approach would dramatically simplify taxes for tens of millions of Americans. In addition, the larger standard deduction and personal exemption amounts will still provide significant tax relief to families with children. This proposal would serve as a stepping-stone to fundamental tax reform.
Debbie,
That’s too much to read and comprehend for the people who only know to tell you to “go read Boortz’s book” in answer to any challenge of the Fair???? Tax bill.
Shep,
You said this: “Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain
Debbie, you know why no one is attacking Fred? Because no one sees Fred as a threat. Same reason no one is bothering with Duncan Hunter. (We bother with Ron Paul just because it’s so much fun to see his supporters get into a frenzy).
No, Reed’s vitriol was enough. I didn’t need his supporters, who were rarely positive.
By the way Bill, I would expect a better analysis of logic from a Tech grad…of course, Tech grads are not as logical as their hero, Mr. Spock, regardless of how many of them own Vulcan ears and can d the “live long and prosper” thing with their hand. If you don’t believe me, simply listen to their rhetoric around the last weekend in November. Absolutely no logic to be found!
Debbie
Ralph Reed is the king of negative campaigning. The reason he lost is it caught up with him bottom line. Rational people did not like the racist attacks on John McCain that Ralph did and you supported. I have been outspoken about McCain and immigration, but to attack people they way you guys went after McCain and other via Reed tactics is wrong!
Iowa demonstrated the mood of the country is feed up with the hate people like you spew. It did not work for Romney or Hillary!
At least Fred’s plan has a better chance at passing than Fair Tax… Fair Tax has too many problems…
My hubby is a UGA graduate so I do cheer for Georgia when they are not playing Alabama to keep peace in the family. I do like Georgia Tech as well. If memory serves me correctly, GT was the last Georgia team to win a national championship..
Jason, you went over the top when you made fun of Mr. Spock
Some GT graduate will come up behind you and suprise you with the old Vulcan nerve pinch if you don’t watch out.
I bet you didn’t like Lord of the Rings or The Matrix either…
Shep,
My logic is, as nearly always, flawless.
For the record, I didn’t like The Matrix at all.
So, mark that down, you record-keepers.
Funny parody from Scrappleface.com:
Huckabee, Obama End Divisiveness, Unite Campaigns
http://www.scrappleface.com/?p=2842
Huckabee, Obama End Divisiveness, Unite Campaigns
by Scott Ott for ScrappleFace
I can not believe why anyone would not like The Matrix. I did not like the final one but liked the first and second one.
We took an IT field trip from work to see LOTR 2 and 3 , Matrix 2 and 3 and Star Wars 2 and 3 opening day.
I don’t think it is geeky at all to like those movies..
Also, for the record, I didn’t like ‘Kill Bill” Part 1 or 2 either.
John Konop,
I’m with you on negative campaigning. Voters are sick of it. The Iowa voters were bombarded with political ads. Those that went negative like Romney were punished. Huckabee’s news conference announcing he was pulling negative ads was rewarded.
HRC will be tempted to go negative against Obama. When she does, it will cost her. She’ll appear to be from the old school and it will revive the Clinton fatique.
This is an election about competancy, change and uniting the country. Wedge issues and negative campaigns used so effectively in the past by Rove, Reed and Atwater won’t work.
Man oh man, wait ’til the Clinton machine gets to SC to wage war on Obama there. Yikes. Even poor Lee Atwater’s ghost should be shakin’ by now.
And Erick, hon. Seems Matt’s pollin’ was right all along. First to call Huckabee… Last minute IA poll showed Obama ahead. Time to refresh the ‘tude, eh?
I have been a GOP activist since 1976. Every election cycle I hear, “Voters are sick of negative campaigning and it will backfire this time.”
You know what you still have negative campaigning because it works. It will continue as long as it works..
It did not work in Iowa because the voters cast their vote for Huckabee because Huckabee touted his religion. 6 in 10 were evangelicals. They were mostly one issue voters. They could care less about Hucksters record or the fact he is a fiscal liberal. They just like what they heard from Huckabee.
Other states are not like Iowa. It will be interesting to see how the Huckster holds up under negative campaigning in other states.
The way Huckster conducted his campaign in Iowa will hurt him in other states.
What do yo think the Democrats will do to Huckabee if he is the nominee? The information below is just a tidbit of the negatives on the Huckster.
http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/33391ddb-ed1f-4bc3-9d19-cdca6181d5d4
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
An Open Letter From An Arkansas Evangelical
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 5:41 PM
In the in-box:
A Plea from Arkansas: Christian Conservatives Need to Take a Closer Look at Mike Huckabee
Monday, November 13, 2006 12:13 PM CST
Huckabees Registered For Gifts
By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau
http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/33391ddb-ed1f-4bc3-9d19-cdca6181d5d4
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
An Open Letter From An Arkansas Evangelical
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 5:41 PM
In the in-box:
A Plea from Arkansas: Christian Conservatives Need to Take a Closer Look at Mike Huckabee’s Record as Governor
by David Thompson
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