Huge win by Obama. Huckabee had to win this one. Romney is still in great shape moving forward and McCain still has life. Thompson and Edwards need to go home. Rudy…Rudy…Rudy….anybody seen Rudy???
I agree with Shepherd… if Romney doesn’t pull out a DOMINATING victory in New Hampshire, he’s done.
I still don’t see Huckabee building off this too much… he doesn’t have the money/organization to turn the tide in upcoming states that are less evangelical.
Thompson is a waste of space… he’s doing JUST good enough to not drop out, yet not good enough to accomplish anything by staying in.
McCain is looking more and more like the future nominee with each passing moment. To have not even visited Iowa until the last minute, and to tell subsidized corn farmers to go stuff themselves when he is there, and yet still come within a hundred votes of 3rd place… WOW.
Great to see Paul break double-digits. You may or may not like the guy, but he’s come from fringe to at least moderately respectable… and brought thousands of us independent-minded small government types to the table who otherwise probably wouldn’t have given the GOP a look this cycle. If the Party is smart, the laughter will stop and they’ll put some effort toward encouraging us into the fold.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Rudy’s “big state” strategy will be a dud. I know he didn’t really campaign in Iowa, but for the nationwide “front runner” to get his ass kicked by Ron Paul almost three-to-one (with another ass kicking on its way in New Hampshire), I don’t see how his poll numbers stand up between now and Super Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, I’m not shocked to see Obama win (Iowa is a strange beast, and he seemed to be everybody’s 2nd-choice). I AM a little surprised to see Hillary come in third. Edwards is done… all the anti-Hillary vote will start to coalesce around Obama now. If Clinton doesn’t make a stand in New Hampshire next week, this WILL get interesting.
1st place is very good for Mr. Obama and Mr. Hucakbee. If Obama follows this up with a win in NH he’s in like Flynn. The challenge for Huckabee is to raise money and get organized in the other states….like tomorrow.
I just spoke to a friend who spent the weekend in New Hampshire helping with the Hickabee phone bamks. She is a veteran campaigner here in Cobb and is very confident that Huckabee will “warm the hearts of the cold folks in New Hanpshire”
HUCKABEE will win in New Hampshire. Huckabee has MO! Momentum -
waterboy, I’m not asserting that he is the second coming, but he did prove he is a strong competitor and know how to GOTV.
From what I hear Romney spent $250 a vote and still got whipped by 9 points. That’s substantial. When you have an individual who can generate that type of commitment, you’ve got a good horse. That’s all.
Best outcome I could think of. Both guys are the positive kind of politics this country is starving for, and honestly–with no respect for blabbering talk-radio pipsqueaks implied–it’s long overdue.
Many great storylines:
- The Three Stooges get upstaged
- Voters ignore Rush’s lack of support for Huckabee
- The conventional wisdom is entirely overturned, at least in one contest
Maurice - I agree that he had an outstanding GOTV strategy. The church crowd came out with a strong showing for him. You gotta find the votes where you can and he managed that in Iowa. Campaign finances are important to every election and Romney certainly has the resources coupled with great results in public service and private industry. It will be up to the voters to help finance Huckabee, so we’ll see how strong that committment really is. Good luck to you and your horse.
Democratic turnout was record high. Over 220,000 versus four years ago 120,000! Obama atracks a lot of new voters and still maintains base. He spells trouble for whoever GOP picks.
That’s huge for McCain. He barely contested Iowa and Thompson spent the past 15 days in the state.
Props to the Thompson folks for the effort that they mounted in Iowa, they are to be commended for their showing and their determination and loyalty to FDT.
Whatever happens tomorrow and through the weekend, we are all a better country for the spirited competitive races and the candidates who put themselves out there.
I think Huckabee winning the GOP nomination is a real possibility. First, I think McCain beats Romney in NH, essentially eliminating Romney from consideration. Thompson will place 5th in NH and probably 3rd or so in South Carolina. Thus, I think Romney and Thompson are either out by Feb 3 or not realisitically in contention. That would leave Huckabee, Rudy, and McCain. I think Huckabee wins social conservatives outright. Then Rudy and McCain probably split national security conseratives. That leaves economic-focused voters in the balance. I think Huckabee, with his fair tax proposal, has the possibility of winning some of those voters. That put Huckabee in a good position to win the nomination. Not inevitable, but certainly possible!
Romney may lose New Hampshire, but he will not officially drop out until at least Feb 5th, Utah primary. He may even stick around till May-June for Idaho, Montana, New Mexico.
Even having a 100 delegates in Minneapolis could be a strong hand.
Bill Bennett made a good point on CNN tonight,
‘Riots and murder in Kenya, bombs and assassination in Pakistan. Thank God we live in America
I’m not sure if anyone really thinks this way, but people have to begin to contemplate what happens when people are able to act anonymously. The caucuses are a social beast, and it doesn’t take much shame or neighborly influence etc. to turn someone when their vote is on public display. I am impressed by Obama’s passionate support, but I do wonder if he still gains the same support behind the curtain in a primary. It is a whole lot easier for democrats to publicly support Obama than it is for them to do so privately, and yes I am playing the race card here. If you disagree I do not blame you, but we all think very differently in our own minds than we do in our conversations.
Huckabee will not be the nominee. He won Iowa, but the rest of the country is different.
I think that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination.
I am sure Romney will notch it up quite a bit with the negative ads against the Huckster and so will the talk shows and conservative columnists.
I am glad Thompson did well enough to stay in. He is looking at South Carolina now.
If Thompson does not have a good showing in South Carolina, then he will probalby drop out. He will endorse McCain but most of Thompson’s supporters will not switch to McCain. They will go with either Mitt or Rudy.
As long as Huckabee is not the nominee, I will be happy…
Maurice, Huckabee has not proven he can tap across a broad section of voters. 6 in 10 that participated in the Iowa caucus were evangelicals. 8 in 10 of Huckabee supporters are evangelicals.
Reagan, Bush 41, and Clinton all lost Iowa when they ran for President. Iowa does not seem to be the anointing that the press has made it into. Romney is still alive and has millions in the warchest.
Is Rush on the outs?
January 4th, 2008 by JohnKonop
Rush was slamming Huckabee and McCain and they were the two biggest surprises in Iowa! In fact a poll showed the g0t the most last minute undecided votes according to Fox. What does this say about Rush?
Rush: No to Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani
Rush implicitly endorsed Romney and Thompson on his show this afternoon (who happen to also be my top two legitimate choices in this race) by saying this about the other three front-runners:
Limbaugh seemed to swipe at McCain, Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, respectively, in responding to a caller about which candidate had true conservative bona fides.
Debbie, it is undeniable that there are a lot of evangelicals in Iowa. However, the man to 34% of the vote. Under your logic, all the deacons must have shown up to support their boy. That’s ridiculous.
Iowa continues to give us Charles Grassley, the Senator who is on a hunt for Religious renagades. Under your logic, you could possibly stretch that to say, “all the deacons showed up to vote to send a clear message to Grassley, stay out of our offering plates.” That probably wasn’t the case either.
I disagree with the NH assessment. Romney will not go quietly. He’s got some of the sharpest ads, however, they’re either fluff or negative.
Romney has the most limited public service experience of any candidate in either party. His public service experience was not remarkable. So, he will have to rely on his executive experience… That will be problematic for the whole ticket.
NH won’t be the same as Iowa, but you will STILL see strong support there as well. I was surprised to see the enthusiasm in CT. I totally expected them to be supporting Romney or Thompson. Everyone I spoke with didn’t trust Romney, his arrogance was a huge turnoff.
We saw two impressive candidates last night. Huckabee kicked butt and took names. People are really warming to him, big time. He’s no flash in the pan.
Obama was even more impressive. Did yall see Hillary’s robotic, passionless speech. My God! She is on her way to be yesterday’s potatoes.
Obama’s speech was full of inspiration and passion. Damn!! We republicans better get our act together. This guy is the real deal.
The numbers don’t lie Maurice. Huckabee took 34% of the voter. 6 in 10 that participated in the caucus were evangelicals. 8 in 10 Huckster supporters were evangelicals. Evangelical support is not enough to win in November…
I would much rather see Romney as the nominee than Huckabee. Huckabee is the candidate that will be problematic for the ticket in November…
The anti illegal immigration groups are not going to give up on defeating Huckabee and neither are the fiscal conservative groups… I expect they will all notch it up quite a bit…
Huckabee was named by Judicial Watch as one of the top ten most corrupt politicians in 2007… Another group attacking the Huckster..
As I said before the Iowa caucus the hate people like you and Rush spew are helping Obama, Huckabee, McCain and Paul! People like you on both sides killed Romney, Hillary, Rudy, Thompson
I think it’s a bit premature to be calling things in favor of Huckabee. Outside of the evangelical ranks, a lot of Republican voters are really, really tired of the theocrats hijacking the party. This sentiment is pretty strong in New Hampshire, from what I’ve been told, and could take all the wind out of Huckbee’s sails. I think that, given this strong showing in Iowa, he’ll stay in the primary race until the end, but what will really tell the tale is whether the evangelicals have a strong enough presence and motivation to get out the vote and send in the donations in favor of their candidate, or if the backlash over Huckabee and other’s theocratic ways will cause the other side to redouble their efforts to get a more secular candidate elected in the primaries. It remains to be seen.
While Huckabee’s win is a big story, I think Obama’s win and Clinton’s 3rd place finish is a bigger one. If Clinton doesn’t pull out win in New Hampshire, she’s probably finished.
The Democrats had over 225,000 voters turn out to caucus. This is much higher than in past years.
Republicans had around 120,000. While somewhat higher than in past years, it’s not good when compared to the Dems.
What the results portray is that the Republicans are fielding candidates who, so far, are not catching fire with regular folks — just mainly with political folks.
Other than Huckabee coming out for the Fair Tax (but not really campaigning on it), our GOP candidates do not have the “Big Idea” that captivates voters in the way that Reagan’s 1980 Tax Cuts did.
Howard Dean is as crazy a nut as there is. But he had a good point about turnout — the Dem team dramatically grew their turnout, while our team is simply excited about getting a bigger piece of a half-sized pie.
The reason Obama is doing so well with Independents and Republicans is all the nasty stuff being thrown out. I am on Wall Street with conservative business people. And when people like Rush pushed people like Debbie to make racist remarks about Obama it was a real turn off. In fact win or loose any rational person would want a guy named Obama helping negotiate in the Middle East.
NH will be the real test how strong Obama is with crossover voters. I disagree with many issues with Obama but for a black guy to win a state that is 97% white is amazing. I do hope Obama style black politicians become successful and drown out the Jessie Jackson message!
John Konop supports Huckabee….that’s good enough for me to scratch the Huckster from my list. Who else you supportin Johnny? This makes politics really easy!
Paul Shuford, what theocrats are in leadership? I would hardly call Huckabee a theocrat. Are you asserting that anyone who has a ‘religious” belief system a theocrat?
All in all a good showing for Ron Paul. He won 1 couny, placed second in 4 and 3rd in 12. Here are two links that show county by county results: Link 1 Link 2
If I ever have to live in Iowa, I know where to go; Libertyville,IA Jefferson county.
Thompson came in third and McCain came in fourth. Which is huge for Thompson for as little time as he’s been a candidate compared to McCain - who has basically been running for the last 12 years.
The last time a self-proclaimed evangelical Christian was elected President of this country was 2000.
You folks who think this country will trust another one after the “do as I say, not as I do” example set by the Bush Administration are, truly, smoking dope, whether literally or figuratively.
I’ve not seen any internals, but it does seem that if anyone turned out some ‘new’ people, it was Huckabee, just based on the fact that there were 40,000 to 50,000 more gop caucus voters than projected, and that he won convincingly.
Ron Paul was basically a flop, given all the claims of support. But he *did* go from being a 1,000 vote candidate to a 10,000 vote candidate, and that was interesting. I assume half of these are people who are not ‘regulars’. Kudos.
But the GOP intensity is not there based on the overall numbers. Huckabee is the candidate of “default” right now — the one who is not Rudy or Romney, yet who seems to want the job. Could have been, should have been, my guy Thompson.
Whether you agree with these proposals or not, this could have been Fred’s marketing niche:
1. Openly campaigning on the Fair Tax as his #1 proposal and plan (which Huck supports but doesn’t talk much about);
2. Fred could campaign as a 100% “secure our borders” guy (the other ‘real’ candidates really aren’t);
3. Consistently pointing out that the other major candidates are “fakes”, and using the word to SAY so. Frankly, conservatives pretty much thinks that already. But no major candidate says so.
The famous Jack Kemp line, when Kemp came to Atlanta to the GOP ‘88 debate, was “if you nominate George Bush, the Reagan Revolution is dead” (meaning Bush #1,). Kemp was right, and it was his only real applause of the whole debate. Too bad for him he didn’t say to earlier in that race.
If you thank about it, the results was expected as for the GOP. Even though Iowa is a GOP state, it is also the subsidy capital of all the states. In NH the fiscal minded conservatives out number the evangelical conservative and will be a better test for the McCain, Thompson and Paul. We’ll also see if the Party leadership and insders stick with Romney or jump ship. And if they jump, where do they land.
The reason nobody campaigns on the Fair Tax is because everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message. You can bet that every campaign has considered it.
Thompson is a lousy candidate even if he has the right conservative message on immigration, abortion and taxes. He’s been trending downward in NH since August. McCain and Romney are likely to finish 1 or 2 in NH. Huckabee gets a modest bounce and holds third. To finish 4th, Thmpson still has to overcome Rudi and Paul who are both polling ahead of him. He is in danger of beating only Duncan Hunter! After a showing of somewhere between 4th and 6th in NH, Thompson will not survive past SC.
Brian, the difference between Romney’s repuditation and Iowa and the others is the simple fact Romney spent more time and money in Iowa than probably the others combines. Rudy didn’t even contest Iowa. People generally don’t vote for people who don’t ask for their vote, but Iowa wasn’t Rudy’s strategy.
Most people ARE saying that 60% of Democrats in Iowa voted against the Clinton machine…not that it was a conscience decision like, “Hey, I want to vote against the Clinton Machine…now who do I pick?”
It was just the machine did not attract them.
Romney threw millions of his own dollars into the race and became the early frontrunner.
Most Republicans, check that, most Americans, don’t like the idea of someone trying to buy their way into the White House. George W. Bush probably was just as wealthy as Forbes and Kerry in 2004, but Forbes and Kerry were seen as the ones with silver spoons in their mouth.
Most Americans want a President who is like their co-worker, not their boss.
People say Huck reminds them of them, and Romney reminds them of their boss. Think about Roy Barnes in 2002. You can throw all the money you want into a race, but if you’re not likeable, you won’t win.
Like Barnes, Romney overloaded the airwaves. He went negative, hard, and ticked people off. He looked more like mean Mr. Potter going after George Bailey than the next President of the United States (wonder if Romney aired any of those negative ads during “It’s a Wonderful Life” in Iowa).
I will also agree with Mark in that Huck has the mantel that should have gone to Fred. I still think Fred is the best candidate on paper, but his campaign has all of the energy of a dead battery and the organization of D.C. traffic circle.
He is making the mistakes folks like Rudy, Mitt, McCain, etc made months ago and have had time to correct.
The trouble for Fred is this is not the dress rehearsal, this is opening night and missed stage directions or lines can mean an early curtain for the Fred Thompson show.
Once these votes are over, their over. He can’t exactly say, “Hey, I think I can do Iowa a little better. How about a 2nd take?”
Six in 10 GOP voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and by far the largest share _almost half _supported Huckabee. Romney led among non-evangelical voters, getting a third of their support.
More than a third of Republicans said having the same religious beliefs as their candidate was very important, and of that group just over half favored Huckabee.
Yeah, that upcoming Fox debate is pretty shameful. It’s one thing to exclude candidates who do not meet some defined threshold. It’s another thing to cherry pick and exclude candidates based on ideology. Paul is polling 3 to 4 times Fred’s numbers in New Hampshire, and has dramatically outdone him in fundraising, but Thompson DOES meet the “criteria”. What a joke.
I hate doing this, but I have to admit that I was wrong about Thompson. I thought his campaign was DOA. It isn’t exactly full of life, but at least he still has something on which to build.
Ron Paul was very impressive. He’ll do even better in NH. Early predictions for NH:
Republicans:
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Rudy Giuliani
Democrats:
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
I think Rudy will do better in NH because it is a primary, and a less percentage of the voters will be from “abortion is the only issue of importance” crowd. However, he will not do well, and I have him in the lower half.
McCain will win it this time, as he seems to resonate in NH, and it is why I think he is the most likely to carry the general election, because of this appeal to “moderates”. Sadly, he is just so wrong on the issues most important to me, like immigration reform and free speach (McCain-Feingold).
Like I said before, Huckabee will play well in caucuses from more religious states like Iowa, and in primaries in some southern states, but will fall flat in places where there is more seperation between religion and politics. Publicity from Iowa, however, will carry him to win at least a bronze medal in NH, but probably a silver, the other one on the podium will be Romney.
Beyond that, everyone else is a crap shoot, and will place in random order.
Paul is a special case, as I think he attracts a different type of voter, so it is impossible to know where he will finish from state to state. I think he will do better in caucuses because of the lower turnout, and devotion that is required of voters to participate. I do not think Paul attracts a lot of voters from the “mainstream” so his voters will number the same whether caucus or primary, but will be watered down by the unwashed casual voters in an easy to vote primary.
On the Dem side, I think Obama takes it, but it will still be a close three way race. I think that there are enough Democrats who think that the country will not elect a minority to the Presidency to keep Edwards alive in the race a lot longer than he should ever be, so it will remian a three way for a while.
I was referring to the political advantages of the Fair Tax in the Republican primary. It’s clearly a political winner in a Republican primary, especially when seeking to differentiate. The general election would be tougher, yes, because it’s an easy issue to demagogue.
You wrote, “everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message”.
Does this count Dr. Dale Jorgen, chairman of the Harvard Economics Department?
And as for a campaign message, does your calculation include the 60 US Congressman who are co-sponsors of it? Might have missed that…
Did it include the tens of thousands of “Fair Tax” bumper stickers on people’s cars? Or the fact that the book became #1 on the NY Times list?
Boomers are damn fools to support the so-called Fair Tax - we were taxed when we earned our money, now Lindner and Boortz and the amalgamated morons of the GOP want to tax us when we spend it, too.
Of course, we are all damn fools to pay into Social Security, especially gen Xers and millenials - the system was bled dry by the misnamed Greatest Generation, who robbed their children’s futures to pay for their cushy retirements out of some weird sense of entitlement to other peoples’ money…
I still think Romney places 2nd in NH. Huck placing 2nd would almost be as good, if not better, than an outright win.
The biggest concern I have is the slash-and-burn Romney machine doing so much damage to McCain and Huck that they will be unelectable.
HRC has to win NH. Bill can say all he wants that he didn’t win until he came to GA, but Bill was a little known former governor from Arkansas, not the former First Lady and NY Senator who has been the Dem. frontrunner since Jan. 20, 2001.
Iowa voters are not always bad decision makers and they don’t always pick the most conservative (or most liberal).
Winners have been…
1972: “Uncommitted” beat Muskie causing him to cry and push 3rd place finisher, McGovern, to the nomination.
1976: Carter (eventual winner); Reagan challenged Ford (eventual nominee and only challenge to an incumbent Pres.) and lost.
1980: George H. W. Bush (eventual VP and moderate to RWR’s eventual conservative revolution).
1984: Mondale (eventual nominee)
1988: Dole and Pat Robertson beat GHW Bush; Dick Gephart and Paul Simon (not the singer for you younger bloggers) beat Dukakis.
1992: Home boy Tom Harkin with Uncommitted, Tsongas and Clinton following.
1996: Dole (eventual nominee)
2000: Bush and Gore (eventual nominees)
2004: Kerry (eventual nominee) followed Edwards (eventual VP nominee) followed by Dean (eventual scream)
If you look at modern history, Iowa has been a good predictor. Overall, Iowa has not been that bad. Taking a look at the caucus (and removing the years when an incumbent was unchallenged), it has predicted the winner of the nomination 57% (4 of 7) of the time for Dems and 60% (3 of 5) of the time for the GOP.
New Hampshire has had the same results as a percentage of winners going to get the nomination, but has not predicted the GOP nominee since 1988’s win by Bush (though on the Dem side Gore and Kerry were winners in 2000 and 2004).
As for taking a pass like Rudy did, he should have taken note of Joe Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark, at one time considered the leading candidates for the Democrats. They both took passes on Iowa and never recovered.
Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain’s people are generally positive as are Rudy’s.
Remember, you get more flies with honey than vinegar. Republicans especially should be looking to explain why their candidate is the best, not tear down the other GOP candidates until our own people won’t even vote for them.
Tell me why your candidate is better, not why mine sucks! You want me to circle the wagons faster, attack my guy. Nothing helps me think more of mine and less of yours than that.
Record does matter especially when a candidate tries to disort it as Huckabee does. I can see why Huckabee’s supporters would like to ignore his record though. The record is coming out sooner or later, might as well come out now before it is too late.
Huckabee supporters that claim that true Christians support Huckabee and that Huckabee is the only true Christian in the race drive people away.
The high turnout was primarily composed of younger voters…Fantastic!!!
America is showing the World that we are capable of choosing our next President from a pool of candidates including a woman and an African American. This is HUGE!
Fred does have a plan to reform the tax code. He need to start touting it.
From Fred08:
Expand Taxpayer Choice. The Thompson plan would give Americans greater choice about how to pay their federal taxes. This plan is based on a proposal developed by the House of Representatives Republican Study Committee that would provide taxpayers the option of remaining under the current, complex tax code or opting for a simplified, flat tax code. The simplified tax code would contain two tax rates: 10% for joint filers on income of up to $100,000 ($50,000 for singles) and 25% on income above these amounts. The standard deduction would be more than doubled to $25,000 for joint filers and $12,500 for singles. The personal exemption amount would be increased to $3,500. Therefore, a family of 4 would be exempt from income tax on the first $39,000 of income. The simplified tax code would contain no other tax credits or deductions. It would also retain the 15% tax rate on capital gains and dividends. This approach would dramatically simplify taxes for tens of millions of Americans. In addition, the larger standard deduction and personal exemption amounts will still provide significant tax relief to families with children. This proposal would serve as a stepping-stone to fundamental tax reform.
That’s too much to read and comprehend for the people who only know to tell you to “go read Boortz’s book” in answer to any challenge of the Fair???? Tax bill.
Debbie, you know why no one is attacking Fred? Because no one sees Fred as a threat. Same reason no one is bothering with Duncan Hunter. (We bother with Ron Paul just because it’s so much fun to see his supporters get into a frenzy).
No, Reed’s vitriol was enough. I didn’t need his supporters, who were rarely positive.
By the way Bill, I would expect a better analysis of logic from a Tech grad…of course, Tech grads are not as logical as their hero, Mr. Spock, regardless of how many of them own Vulcan ears and can d the “live long and prosper” thing with their hand. If you don’t believe me, simply listen to their rhetoric around the last weekend in November. Absolutely no logic to be found!
Ralph Reed is the king of negative campaigning. The reason he lost is it caught up with him bottom line. Rational people did not like the racist attacks on John McCain that Ralph did and you supported. I have been outspoken about McCain and immigration, but to attack people they way you guys went after McCain and other via Reed tactics is wrong!
Iowa demonstrated the mood of the country is feed up with the hate people like you spew. It did not work for Romney or Hillary!
My hubby is a UGA graduate so I do cheer for Georgia when they are not playing Alabama to keep peace in the family. I do like Georgia Tech as well. If memory serves me correctly, GT was the last Georgia team to win a national championship..
Jason, you went over the top when you made fun of Mr. Spock Some GT graduate will come up behind you and suprise you with the old Vulcan nerve pinch if you don’t watch out.
I bet you didn’t like Lord of the Rings or The Matrix either…
I’m with you on negative campaigning. Voters are sick of it. The Iowa voters were bombarded with political ads. Those that went negative like Romney were punished. Huckabee’s news conference announcing he was pulling negative ads was rewarded.
HRC will be tempted to go negative against Obama. When she does, it will cost her. She’ll appear to be from the old school and it will revive the Clinton fatique.
This is an election about competancy, change and uniting the country. Wedge issues and negative campaigns used so effectively in the past by Rove, Reed and Atwater won’t work.
Man oh man, wait ’til the Clinton machine gets to SC to wage war on Obama there. Yikes. Even poor Lee Atwater’s ghost should be shakin’ by now.
And Erick, hon. Seems Matt’s pollin’ was right all along. First to call Huckabee… Last minute IA poll showed Obama ahead. Time to refresh the ‘tude, eh?
I have been a GOP activist since 1976. Every election cycle I hear, “Voters are sick of negative campaigning and it will backfire this time.”
You know what you still have negative campaigning because it works. It will continue as long as it works..
It did not work in Iowa because the voters cast their vote for Huckabee because Huckabee touted his religion. 6 in 10 were evangelicals. They were mostly one issue voters. They could care less about Hucksters record or the fact he is a fiscal liberal. They just like what they heard from Huckabee.
Other states are not like Iowa. It will be interesting to see how the Huckster holds up under negative campaigning in other states.
The way Huckster conducted his campaign in Iowa will hurt him in other states.
{ 1 trackback }
{ 154 comments }
shep1975 01.03.08 at 9:55 pm
With a tip of the hat to Bull, it was also a good night for McCain.
After $10 million, to have 75% of people vote against you, Romney is gone if he loses in NH.
Huck shows a little likeability goes a long way.
Hank Reardan 01.03.08 at 10:03 pm
Rudy at 4% ha ha ha ha ha h
Jmac 01.03.08 at 10:10 pm
Obama wins. Awesome.
YourFutureLeader 01.03.08 at 10:20 pm
Biggest Story: Clinton finishes 3rd in Iowa
waterboy 01.03.08 at 10:32 pm
Huge win by Obama. Huckabee had to win this one. Romney is still in great shape moving forward and McCain still has life. Thompson and Edwards need to go home. Rudy…Rudy…Rudy….anybody seen Rudy???
GOPeach 01.03.08 at 10:32 pm
WOOOOO HOOOOO!!!!
YEAH!!! That’s what I’m talking about!!!
HUCKABEE!!!!
I told you folks that HUCKABEE is IN IT to WIN IT!!!!!
StevePerkins 01.03.08 at 10:33 pm
I agree with Shepherd… if Romney doesn’t pull out a DOMINATING victory in New Hampshire, he’s done.
I still don’t see Huckabee building off this too much… he doesn’t have the money/organization to turn the tide in upcoming states that are less evangelical.
Thompson is a waste of space… he’s doing JUST good enough to not drop out, yet not good enough to accomplish anything by staying in.
McCain is looking more and more like the future nominee with each passing moment. To have not even visited Iowa until the last minute, and to tell subsidized corn farmers to go stuff themselves when he is there, and yet still come within a hundred votes of 3rd place… WOW.
Great to see Paul break double-digits. You may or may not like the guy, but he’s come from fringe to at least moderately respectable… and brought thousands of us independent-minded small government types to the table who otherwise probably wouldn’t have given the GOP a look this cycle. If the Party is smart, the laughter will stop and they’ll put some effort toward encouraging us into the fold.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Rudy’s “big state” strategy will be a dud. I know he didn’t really campaign in Iowa, but for the nationwide “front runner” to get his ass kicked by Ron Paul almost three-to-one (with another ass kicking on its way in New Hampshire), I don’t see how his poll numbers stand up between now and Super Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, I’m not shocked to see Obama win (Iowa is a strange beast, and he seemed to be everybody’s 2nd-choice). I AM a little surprised to see Hillary come in third. Edwards is done… all the anti-Hillary vote will start to coalesce around Obama now. If Clinton doesn’t make a stand in New Hampshire next week, this WILL get interesting.
Buzz Brockway 01.03.08 at 10:35 pm
My thoughts…
3rd place is very bad for Mrs. Clinton.
3rd place is pretty good for Mr. Thompson.
1st place is very good for Mr. Obama and Mr. Hucakbee. If Obama follows this up with a win in NH he’s in like Flynn. The challenge for Huckabee is to raise money and get organized in the other states….like tomorrow.
GOPeach 01.03.08 at 10:36 pm
I just spoke to a friend who spent the weekend in New Hampshire helping with the Hickabee phone bamks. She is a veteran campaigner here in Cobb and is very confident that Huckabee will “warm the hearts of the cold folks in New Hanpshire”
HUCKABEE will win in New Hampshire. Huckabee has MO! Momentum -
GOPeach 01.03.08 at 10:38 pm
Buzz …
You would be wise to back Huckabee now. The same for everyone else!!!
I am serious!!!!!!
Maurice Atkinson 01.03.08 at 11:05 pm
Never trust those polls…..
The Kool-Aid must be real good in Iowa.
This only the start, but Huckabee has proven he is able to tap a broad cross section of voters. That’s the big fear of the insiders.
Consider this, people are tired of smut politicking and are interested in ideas and leadership.
I recall an election a couple of years ago…..
Buzz Brockway 01.03.08 at 11:05 pm
Chris Dodd drops out…..anyone care?
StevePerkins 01.03.08 at 11:09 pm
If I’m reading the results correctly, Chris Dodd LITERALLY lost to “None of the Above”. Ouch.
waterboy 01.03.08 at 11:11 pm
Is Chris Dodd the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton?
Maurice - save the Huckabee glory. He isn’t the second coming.
ConservativeCaucus 01.03.08 at 11:17 pm
Good night for Huckabee. Good night for McCain. Good for Paul. Bad for Edwards. Bad for Giuliani.
Buzz Brockway 01.03.08 at 11:19 pm
Joe Biden drops out….anyone care?
MountainThinker 01.03.08 at 11:25 pm
Biden drops as well…
MountainThinker 01.03.08 at 11:26 pm
I think Dodd & Biden Out could help Edwards, though he needs Richardson out as well…
Icarus 01.03.08 at 11:28 pm
70% of the dems don’t want to return to the Clintons?
Maurice Atkinson 01.03.08 at 11:29 pm
waterboy, I’m not asserting that he is the second coming, but he did prove he is a strong competitor and know how to GOTV.
From what I hear Romney spent $250 a vote and still got whipped by 9 points. That’s substantial. When you have an individual who can generate that type of commitment, you’ve got a good horse. That’s all.
souldrift 01.03.08 at 11:41 pm
Best outcome I could think of. Both guys are the positive kind of politics this country is starving for, and honestly–with no respect for blabbering talk-radio pipsqueaks implied–it’s long overdue.
Many great storylines:
- The Three Stooges get upstaged
- Voters ignore Rush’s lack of support for Huckabee
- The conventional wisdom is entirely overturned, at least in one contest
I haven’t ever been this excited about a primary.
waterboy 01.03.08 at 11:45 pm
Maurice - I agree that he had an outstanding GOTV strategy. The church crowd came out with a strong showing for him. You gotta find the votes where you can and he managed that in Iowa. Campaign finances are important to every election and Romney certainly has the resources coupled with great results in public service and private industry. It will be up to the voters to help finance Huckabee, so we’ll see how strong that committment really is. Good luck to you and your horse.
Buzz Brockway 01.03.08 at 11:49 pm
Make Gravel drops out….who?
TrueConservative 01.04.08 at 12:00 am
God is good, oh Debbie, quit drinking and say it with me ,”PRESIDENT MIKE HUCKABEE”.
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 12:03 am
Democratic turnout was record high. Over 220,000 versus four years ago 120,000! Obama atracks a lot of new voters and still maintains base. He spells trouble for whoever GOP picks.
TrueConservative 01.04.08 at 12:05 am
No problem for Huckabee. He will knock the stew out of him….
juliobarrios 01.04.08 at 12:11 am
If only he climbed up a pole in Iowa and camped out on it until his message was heard, Dodd might not have had to drop out of the race.
Bull Moose 01.04.08 at 12:17 am
Thompson shares 3rd w/ McCain.
That’s huge for McCain. He barely contested Iowa and Thompson spent the past 15 days in the state.
Props to the Thompson folks for the effort that they mounted in Iowa, they are to be commended for their showing and their determination and loyalty to FDT.
Whatever happens tomorrow and through the weekend, we are all a better country for the spirited competitive races and the candidates who put themselves out there.
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 12:20 am
When a black man wins a state that is 94% white, you have to believe that people are hearing and responding to his message.
Edwards vote will colapse to Obama in NH and SC. Stick a fork in him.
Groseclose 01.04.08 at 12:21 am
I think Huckabee winning the GOP nomination is a real possibility. First, I think McCain beats Romney in NH, essentially eliminating Romney from consideration. Thompson will place 5th in NH and probably 3rd or so in South Carolina. Thus, I think Romney and Thompson are either out by Feb 3 or not realisitically in contention. That would leave Huckabee, Rudy, and McCain. I think Huckabee wins social conservatives outright. Then Rudy and McCain probably split national security conseratives. That leaves economic-focused voters in the balance. I think Huckabee, with his fair tax proposal, has the possibility of winning some of those voters. That put Huckabee in a good position to win the nomination. Not inevitable, but certainly possible!
GOPeach 01.04.08 at 12:42 am
Groseclose -
THAT is what I have been thinking ALL along ….
I COMPLETELY must agree with you!
HUCKABEE will be the next PRESIDENT!
Ms_midtown 01.04.08 at 12:47 am
Romney may lose New Hampshire, but he will not officially drop out until at least Feb 5th, Utah primary. He may even stick around till May-June for Idaho, Montana, New Mexico.
Even having a 100 delegates in Minneapolis could be a strong hand.
Bill Bennett made a good point on CNN tonight,
‘Riots and murder in Kenya, bombs and assassination in Pakistan. Thank God we live in America
Brian Laurens 01.04.08 at 2:48 am
Under Jasons logic,
65% of Iowans voted against Huckabee
87% of Iowans voted against McCain
87% of Iowans voted against his saviour Fred
and drumroll…
96% of Iowans voted against Rudy
rightbeforeleft 01.04.08 at 3:29 am
I’m not sure if anyone really thinks this way, but people have to begin to contemplate what happens when people are able to act anonymously. The caucuses are a social beast, and it doesn’t take much shame or neighborly influence etc. to turn someone when their vote is on public display. I am impressed by Obama’s passionate support, but I do wonder if he still gains the same support behind the curtain in a primary. It is a whole lot easier for democrats to publicly support Obama than it is for them to do so privately, and yes I am playing the race card here. If you disagree I do not blame you, but we all think very differently in our own minds than we do in our conversations.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 5:33 am
Huckabee will not be the nominee. He won Iowa, but the rest of the country is different.
I think that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination.
I am sure Romney will notch it up quite a bit with the negative ads against the Huckster and so will the talk shows and conservative columnists.
I am glad Thompson did well enough to stay in. He is looking at South Carolina now.
If Thompson does not have a good showing in South Carolina, then he will probalby drop out. He will endorse McCain but most of Thompson’s supporters will not switch to McCain. They will go with either Mitt or Rudy.
As long as Huckabee is not the nominee, I will be happy…
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 5:36 am
Romney could lose New Hampshire and do well in South Carolina.
Romney is a fighter and he has money. It is about to get very nasty.
In South Carolina, voters are not evangelicals easily duped by Huckabee like they were in Iowa.
I will even support McCain over the Huckster…
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 5:44 am
Maurice, Huckabee has not proven he can tap across a broad section of voters. 6 in 10 that participated in the Iowa caucus were evangelicals. 8 in 10 of Huckabee supporters are evangelicals.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/caucus_gop_analysis
Faith was a determining factor for many Republican caucus participants.
A significant chunk of Huckabee supporters
Brian Laurens 01.04.08 at 6:41 am
Reagan, Bush 41, and Clinton all lost Iowa when they ran for President. Iowa does not seem to be the anointing that the press has made it into. Romney is still alive and has millions in the warchest.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 6:50 am
Brian, you and I agree. The Democrats are all giddy because the Huckster won Iowa…
John Konop 01.04.08 at 7:41 am
Is Rush on the outs?
January 4th, 2008 by JohnKonop
Rush was slamming Huckabee and McCain and they were the two biggest surprises in Iowa! In fact a poll showed the g0t the most last minute undecided votes according to Fox. What does this say about Rush?
Rush: No to Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani
Rush implicitly endorsed Romney and Thompson on his show this afternoon (who happen to also be my top two legitimate choices in this race) by saying this about the other three front-runners:
Limbaugh seemed to swipe at McCain, Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, respectively, in responding to a caller about which candidate had true conservative bona fides.
Maurice Atkinson 01.04.08 at 7:44 am
Debbie, it is undeniable that there are a lot of evangelicals in Iowa. However, the man to 34% of the vote. Under your logic, all the deacons must have shown up to support their boy. That’s ridiculous.
Iowa continues to give us Charles Grassley, the Senator who is on a hunt for Religious renagades. Under your logic, you could possibly stretch that to say, “all the deacons showed up to vote to send a clear message to Grassley, stay out of our offering plates.” That probably wasn’t the case either.
I disagree with the NH assessment. Romney will not go quietly. He’s got some of the sharpest ads, however, they’re either fluff or negative.
Romney has the most limited public service experience of any candidate in either party. His public service experience was not remarkable. So, he will have to rely on his executive experience… That will be problematic for the whole ticket.
NH won’t be the same as Iowa, but you will STILL see strong support there as well. I was surprised to see the enthusiasm in CT. I totally expected them to be supporting Romney or Thompson. Everyone I spoke with didn’t trust Romney, his arrogance was a huge turnoff.
John Konop 01.04.08 at 7:54 am
Maurice Atkinson
The interesting part is Huckabee won in the big Cities in Iowa. I am guessing Huckabee also got a lot of support from fair tax people.
Dave 01.04.08 at 7:59 am
We saw two impressive candidates last night. Huckabee kicked butt and took names. People are really warming to him, big time. He’s no flash in the pan.
Obama was even more impressive. Did yall see Hillary’s robotic, passionless speech. My God! She is on her way to be yesterday’s potatoes.
Obama’s speech was full of inspiration and passion. Damn!! We republicans better get our act together. This guy is the real deal.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 8:01 am
The numbers don’t lie Maurice. Huckabee took 34% of the voter. 6 in 10 that participated in the caucus were evangelicals. 8 in 10 Huckster supporters were evangelicals. Evangelical support is not enough to win in November…
I would much rather see Romney as the nominee than Huckabee. Huckabee is the candidate that will be problematic for the ticket in November…
The anti illegal immigration groups are not going to give up on defeating Huckabee and neither are the fiscal conservative groups… I expect they will all notch it up quite a bit…
Huckabee was named by Judicial Watch as one of the top ten most corrupt politicians in 2007… Another group attacking the Huckster..
John Konop 01.04.08 at 8:23 am
Debbie
As I said before the Iowa caucus the hate people like you and Rush spew are helping Obama, Huckabee, McCain and Paul! People like you on both sides killed Romney, Hillary, Rudy, Thompson
Paul Shuford 01.04.08 at 8:24 am
I think it’s a bit premature to be calling things in favor of Huckabee. Outside of the evangelical ranks, a lot of Republican voters are really, really tired of the theocrats hijacking the party. This sentiment is pretty strong in New Hampshire, from what I’ve been told, and could take all the wind out of Huckbee’s sails. I think that, given this strong showing in Iowa, he’ll stay in the primary race until the end, but what will really tell the tale is whether the evangelicals have a strong enough presence and motivation to get out the vote and send in the donations in favor of their candidate, or if the backlash over Huckabee and other’s theocratic ways will cause the other side to redouble their efforts to get a more secular candidate elected in the primaries. It remains to be seen.
While Huckabee’s win is a big story, I think Obama’s win and Clinton’s 3rd place finish is a bigger one. If Clinton doesn’t pull out win in New Hampshire, she’s probably finished.
Mark Rountree 01.04.08 at 8:26 am
A real story here is being missed.
The Democrats had over 225,000 voters turn out to caucus. This is much higher than in past years.
Republicans had around 120,000. While somewhat higher than in past years, it’s not good when compared to the Dems.
What the results portray is that the Republicans are fielding candidates who, so far, are not catching fire with regular folks — just mainly with political folks.
Other than Huckabee coming out for the Fair Tax (but not really campaigning on it), our GOP candidates do not have the “Big Idea” that captivates voters in the way that Reagan’s 1980 Tax Cuts did.
Howard Dean is as crazy a nut as there is. But he had a good point about turnout — the Dem team dramatically grew their turnout, while our team is simply excited about getting a bigger piece of a half-sized pie.
John Konop 01.04.08 at 8:33 am
Dave
The reason Obama is doing so well with Independents and Republicans is all the nasty stuff being thrown out. I am on Wall Street with conservative business people. And when people like Rush pushed people like Debbie to make racist remarks about Obama it was a real turn off. In fact win or loose any rational person would want a guy named Obama helping negotiate in the Middle East.
NH will be the real test how strong Obama is with crossover voters. I disagree with many issues with Obama but for a black guy to win a state that is 97% white is amazing. I do hope Obama style black politicians become successful and drown out the Jessie Jackson message!
waterboy 01.04.08 at 8:40 am
John Konop supports Huckabee….that’s good enough for me to scratch the Huckster from my list. Who else you supportin Johnny? This makes politics really easy!
Maurice Atkinson 01.04.08 at 8:48 am
Paul Shuford, what theocrats are in leadership? I would hardly call Huckabee a theocrat. Are you asserting that anyone who has a ‘religious” belief system a theocrat?
Carpe Forem 01.04.08 at 8:52 am
All in all a good showing for Ron Paul. He won 1 couny, placed second in 4 and 3rd in 12. Here are two links that show county by county results:
Link 1
Link 2
If I ever have to live in Iowa, I know where to go; Libertyville,IA Jefferson county.
jsm 01.04.08 at 8:55 am
…quit drinking and say it with me ,
Maurice Atkinson 01.04.08 at 9:03 am
Mark Roundtree, the same dynamic that nuked us in
juliobarrios 01.04.08 at 9:16 am
Thompson came in third and McCain came in fourth. Which is huge for Thompson for as little time as he’s been a candidate compared to McCain - who has basically been running for the last 12 years.
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 9:27 am
The last time a self-proclaimed evangelical Christian was elected President of this country was 2000.
You folks who think this country will trust another one after the “do as I say, not as I do” example set by the Bush Administration are, truly, smoking dope, whether literally or figuratively.
Mark Rountree 01.04.08 at 9:29 am
I’ve not seen any internals, but it does seem that if anyone turned out some ‘new’ people, it was Huckabee, just based on the fact that there were 40,000 to 50,000 more gop caucus voters than projected, and that he won convincingly.
Ron Paul was basically a flop, given all the claims of support. But he *did* go from being a 1,000 vote candidate to a 10,000 vote candidate, and that was interesting. I assume half of these are people who are not ‘regulars’. Kudos.
But the GOP intensity is not there based on the overall numbers. Huckabee is the candidate of “default” right now — the one who is not Rudy or Romney, yet who seems to want the job. Could have been, should have been, my guy Thompson.
Whether you agree with these proposals or not, this could have been Fred’s marketing niche:
1. Openly campaigning on the Fair Tax as his #1 proposal and plan (which Huck supports but doesn’t talk much about);
2. Fred could campaign as a 100% “secure our borders” guy (the other ‘real’ candidates really aren’t);
3. Consistently pointing out that the other major candidates are “fakes”, and using the word to SAY so. Frankly, conservatives pretty much thinks that already. But no major candidate says so.
The famous Jack Kemp line, when Kemp came to Atlanta to the GOP ‘88 debate, was “if you nominate George Bush, the Reagan Revolution is dead” (meaning Bush #1,). Kemp was right, and it was his only real applause of the whole debate. Too bad for him he didn’t say to earlier in that race.
It’s not too late.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 9:32 am
Maurice, you mentioned political corruption. Huckabee was named by Judicial Watch as one the top ten most corrupt politicians in Washington in 2007.
And then there are the gifts:
http://www.swtimes.com/articles/2006/11/13/week_in_review/news/saturday/news09.txt&reason=0
Monday, November 13, 2006 12:13 PM CST
Huckabees Registered For Gifts
By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau
Carpe Forem 01.04.08 at 9:57 am
If you thank about it, the results was expected as for the GOP. Even though Iowa is a GOP state, it is also the subsidy capital of all the states. In NH the fiscal minded conservatives out number the evangelical conservative and will be a better test for the McCain, Thompson and Paul. We’ll also see if the Party leadership and insders stick with Romney or jump ship. And if they jump, where do they land.
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 10:15 am
Mark, See my 12.03 AM post regarding turnout.
The reason nobody campaigns on the Fair Tax is because everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message. You can bet that every campaign has considered it.
Thompson is a lousy candidate even if he has the right conservative message on immigration, abortion and taxes. He’s been trending downward in NH since August. McCain and Romney are likely to finish 1 or 2 in NH. Huckabee gets a modest bounce and holds third. To finish 4th, Thmpson still has to overcome Rudi and Paul who are both polling ahead of him. He is in danger of beating only Duncan Hunter! After a showing of somewhere between 4th and 6th in NH, Thompson will not survive past SC.
shep1975 01.04.08 at 10:18 am
Brian, the difference between Romney’s repuditation and Iowa and the others is the simple fact Romney spent more time and money in Iowa than probably the others combines. Rudy didn’t even contest Iowa. People generally don’t vote for people who don’t ask for their vote, but Iowa wasn’t Rudy’s strategy.
Most people ARE saying that 60% of Democrats in Iowa voted against the Clinton machine…not that it was a conscience decision like, “Hey, I want to vote against the Clinton Machine…now who do I pick?”
It was just the machine did not attract them.
Romney threw millions of his own dollars into the race and became the early frontrunner.
Most Republicans, check that, most Americans, don’t like the idea of someone trying to buy their way into the White House. George W. Bush probably was just as wealthy as Forbes and Kerry in 2004, but Forbes and Kerry were seen as the ones with silver spoons in their mouth.
Most Americans want a President who is like their co-worker, not their boss.
People say Huck reminds them of them, and Romney reminds them of their boss. Think about Roy Barnes in 2002. You can throw all the money you want into a race, but if you’re not likeable, you won’t win.
Like Barnes, Romney overloaded the airwaves. He went negative, hard, and ticked people off. He looked more like mean Mr. Potter going after George Bailey than the next President of the United States (wonder if Romney aired any of those negative ads during “It’s a Wonderful Life” in Iowa).
I will also agree with Mark in that Huck has the mantel that should have gone to Fred. I still think Fred is the best candidate on paper, but his campaign has all of the energy of a dead battery and the organization of D.C. traffic circle.
He is making the mistakes folks like Rudy, Mitt, McCain, etc made months ago and have had time to correct.
The trouble for Fred is this is not the dress rehearsal, this is opening night and missed stage directions or lines can mean an early curtain for the Fred Thompson show.
Once these votes are over, their over. He can’t exactly say, “Hey, I think I can do Iowa a little better. How about a 2nd take?”
“Iowa Caucus starring Fred Thompson, take 2!”
Politics doesn’t work like that.
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 10:19 am
FOX News is holding a debate on Sunday, but they have excluded Ron Paul from appearing. What happened to “We report. You decide.”???
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 10:31 am
The states that have yet to hold primaries are not like Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/caucus_poll_glance
Six in 10 GOP voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and by far the largest share _almost half _supported Huckabee. Romney led among non-evangelical voters, getting a third of their support.
More than a third of Republicans said having the same religious beliefs as their candidate was very important, and of that group just over half favored Huckabee.
ConservativeCaucus 01.04.08 at 10:33 am
Huckabee’s message to Georgians:
http://www.peachpundit.com/2008/01/04/huckabee-sends-a-message-to-georgians/
StevePerkins 01.04.08 at 10:33 am
Yeah, that upcoming Fox debate is pretty shameful. It’s one thing to exclude candidates who do not meet some defined threshold. It’s another thing to cherry pick and exclude candidates based on ideology. Paul is polling 3 to 4 times Fred’s numbers in New Hampshire, and has dramatically outdone him in fundraising, but Thompson DOES meet the “criteria”. What a joke.
ConservativeCaucus 01.04.08 at 10:42 am
You’re right Steve. It is shameful. I learned long ago that “Fair and Balanced” is just a catchy slogan.
Jace Walden 01.04.08 at 10:43 am
I hate doing this, but I have to admit that I was wrong about Thompson. I thought his campaign was DOA. It isn’t exactly full of life, but at least he still has something on which to build.
Ron Paul was very impressive. He’ll do even better in NH. Early predictions for NH:
Republicans:
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Fred Thompson
Rudy Giuliani
Democrats:
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Doug Deal 01.04.08 at 11:13 am
Jace,
I think Rudy will do better in NH because it is a primary, and a less percentage of the voters will be from “abortion is the only issue of importance” crowd. However, he will not do well, and I have him in the lower half.
McCain will win it this time, as he seems to resonate in NH, and it is why I think he is the most likely to carry the general election, because of this appeal to “moderates”. Sadly, he is just so wrong on the issues most important to me, like immigration reform and free speach (McCain-Feingold).
Like I said before, Huckabee will play well in caucuses from more religious states like Iowa, and in primaries in some southern states, but will fall flat in places where there is more seperation between religion and politics. Publicity from Iowa, however, will carry him to win at least a bronze medal in NH, but probably a silver, the other one on the podium will be Romney.
Beyond that, everyone else is a crap shoot, and will place in random order.
Paul is a special case, as I think he attracts a different type of voter, so it is impossible to know where he will finish from state to state. I think he will do better in caucuses because of the lower turnout, and devotion that is required of voters to participate. I do not think Paul attracts a lot of voters from the “mainstream” so his voters will number the same whether caucus or primary, but will be watered down by the unwashed casual voters in an easy to vote primary.
On the Dem side, I think Obama takes it, but it will still be a close three way race. I think that there are enough Democrats who think that the country will not elect a minority to the Presidency to keep Edwards alive in the race a lot longer than he should ever be, so it will remian a three way for a while.
GodHatesTrash 01.04.08 at 11:13 am
The stupid and superstitious have spoken - they said “Give us the televangelist. GIVE US THE HUCKLEBERRY!”
Yeehaw!
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 11:30 am
It will get fun when they make evolution an issue.
Mark Rountree 01.04.08 at 11:40 am
Still Looking,
I was referring to the political advantages of the Fair Tax in the Republican primary. It’s clearly a political winner in a Republican primary, especially when seeking to differentiate. The general election would be tougher, yes, because it’s an easy issue to demagogue.
You wrote, “everyone that has seriously examined it realizes it is a loser in terms of rational tax policy and a camaign message”.
Does this count Dr. Dale Jorgen, chairman of the Harvard Economics Department?
And as for a campaign message, does your calculation include the 60 US Congressman who are co-sponsors of it? Might have missed that…
Did it include the tens of thousands of “Fair Tax” bumper stickers on people’s cars? Or the fact that the book became #1 on the NY Times list?
hmmm…you might be missing something here…
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 11:41 am
Huckabee Win May Be a Fluke
http://www.newsmax.com/kessler/Huckabee_fluke/2008/01/04/61744.html
Mark Rountree 01.04.08 at 11:42 am
Correction: actually, 66 congressional co-sponsors and 4 US Senators.
John Konop 01.04.08 at 12:02 pm
Waterboy
I never said I supported Huckabee. But people like you and Debbie are helping him with your nasty comments!
I will repeat Ron Paul, Huckabee and Obama should thank people like you for all the voters you guys drove to them!
You guys are better than paid staff!
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 12:03 pm
Proof is in the pudding: No presidential candidate is running on it.
GodHatesTrash 01.04.08 at 12:19 pm
Boomers are damn fools to support the so-called Fair Tax - we were taxed when we earned our money, now Lindner and Boortz and the amalgamated morons of the GOP want to tax us when we spend it, too.
GodHatesTrash 01.04.08 at 12:21 pm
Of course, we are all damn fools to pay into Social Security, especially gen Xers and millenials - the system was bled dry by the misnamed Greatest Generation, who robbed their children’s futures to pay for their cushy retirements out of some weird sense of entitlement to other peoples’ money…
shep1975 01.04.08 at 12:26 pm
I still think Romney places 2nd in NH. Huck placing 2nd would almost be as good, if not better, than an outright win.
The biggest concern I have is the slash-and-burn Romney machine doing so much damage to McCain and Huck that they will be unelectable.
HRC has to win NH. Bill can say all he wants that he didn’t win until he came to GA, but Bill was a little known former governor from Arkansas, not the former First Lady and NY Senator who has been the Dem. frontrunner since Jan. 20, 2001.
Iowa voters are not always bad decision makers and they don’t always pick the most conservative (or most liberal).
Winners have been…
1972: “Uncommitted” beat Muskie causing him to cry and push 3rd place finisher, McGovern, to the nomination.
1976: Carter (eventual winner); Reagan challenged Ford (eventual nominee and only challenge to an incumbent Pres.) and lost.
1980: George H. W. Bush (eventual VP and moderate to RWR’s eventual conservative revolution).
1984: Mondale (eventual nominee)
1988: Dole and Pat Robertson beat GHW Bush; Dick Gephart and Paul Simon (not the singer for you younger bloggers) beat Dukakis.
1992: Home boy Tom Harkin with Uncommitted, Tsongas and Clinton following.
1996: Dole (eventual nominee)
2000: Bush and Gore (eventual nominees)
2004: Kerry (eventual nominee) followed Edwards (eventual VP nominee) followed by Dean (eventual scream)
If you look at modern history, Iowa has been a good predictor. Overall, Iowa has not been that bad. Taking a look at the caucus (and removing the years when an incumbent was unchallenged), it has predicted the winner of the nomination 57% (4 of 7) of the time for Dems and 60% (3 of 5) of the time for the GOP.
New Hampshire has had the same results as a percentage of winners going to get the nomination, but has not predicted the GOP nominee since 1988’s win by Bush (though on the Dem side Gore and Kerry were winners in 2000 and 2004).
As for taking a pass like Rudy did, he should have taken note of Joe Lieberman and retired General Wesley Clark, at one time considered the leading candidates for the Democrats. They both took passes on Iowa and never recovered.
shep1975 01.04.08 at 12:35 pm
Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain’s people are generally positive as are Rudy’s.
Remember, you get more flies with honey than vinegar. Republicans especially should be looking to explain why their candidate is the best, not tear down the other GOP candidates until our own people won’t even vote for them.
Tell me why your candidate is better, not why mine sucks! You want me to circle the wagons faster, attack my guy. Nothing helps me think more of mine and less of yours than that.
I’ll give the same advice to the Dems.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 1:00 pm
Record does matter especially when a candidate tries to disort it as Huckabee does. I can see why Huckabee’s supporters would like to ignore his record though. The record is coming out sooner or later, might as well come out now before it is too late.
Huckabee supporters that claim that true Christians support Huckabee and that Huckabee is the only true Christian in the race drive people away.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 1:04 pm
The Lt. governor’s race in 2006 proved that negative campaigning does work…
Tea Party 01.04.08 at 1:11 pm
What is truly amazing:
The high turnout was primarily composed of younger voters…Fantastic!!!
America is showing the World that we are capable of choosing our next President from a pool of candidates including a woman and an African American. This is HUGE!
2008 is gonna be great!
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 1:18 pm
Fred does have a plan to reform the tax code. He need to start touting it.
From Fred08:
Expand Taxpayer Choice. The Thompson plan would give Americans greater choice about how to pay their federal taxes. This plan is based on a proposal developed by the House of Representatives Republican Study Committee that would provide taxpayers the option of remaining under the current, complex tax code or opting for a simplified, flat tax code. The simplified tax code would contain two tax rates: 10% for joint filers on income of up to $100,000 ($50,000 for singles) and 25% on income above these amounts. The standard deduction would be more than doubled to $25,000 for joint filers and $12,500 for singles. The personal exemption amount would be increased to $3,500. Therefore, a family of 4 would be exempt from income tax on the first $39,000 of income. The simplified tax code would contain no other tax credits or deductions. It would also retain the 15% tax rate on capital gains and dividends. This approach would dramatically simplify taxes for tens of millions of Americans. In addition, the larger standard deduction and personal exemption amounts will still provide significant tax relief to families with children. This proposal would serve as a stepping-stone to fundamental tax reform.
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 1:44 pm
Debbie,
That’s too much to read and comprehend for the people who only know to tell you to “go read Boortz’s book” in answer to any challenge of the Fair???? Tax bill.
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 1:48 pm
Shep,
You said this: “Good point, John. Nothing is driving me faster from Romney and Thompson than the vitriol of their supporters. McCain
shep1975 01.04.08 at 1:49 pm
Debbie, you know why no one is attacking Fred? Because no one sees Fred as a threat. Same reason no one is bothering with Duncan Hunter. (We bother with Ron Paul just because it’s so much fun to see his supporters get into a frenzy).
shep1975 01.04.08 at 1:58 pm
No, Reed’s vitriol was enough. I didn’t need his supporters, who were rarely positive.
By the way Bill, I would expect a better analysis of logic from a Tech grad…of course, Tech grads are not as logical as their hero, Mr. Spock, regardless of how many of them own Vulcan ears and can d the “live long and prosper” thing with their hand. If you don’t believe me, simply listen to their rhetoric around the last weekend in November. Absolutely no logic to be found!
John Konop 01.04.08 at 2:06 pm
Debbie
Ralph Reed is the king of negative campaigning. The reason he lost is it caught up with him bottom line. Rational people did not like the racist attacks on John McCain that Ralph did and you supported. I have been outspoken about McCain and immigration, but to attack people they way you guys went after McCain and other via Reed tactics is wrong!
Iowa demonstrated the mood of the country is feed up with the hate people like you spew. It did not work for Romney or Hillary!
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 2:17 pm
At least Fred’s plan has a better chance at passing than Fair Tax… Fair Tax has too many problems…
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 2:24 pm
My hubby is a UGA graduate so I do cheer for Georgia when they are not playing Alabama to keep peace in the family. I do like Georgia Tech as well. If memory serves me correctly, GT was the last Georgia team to win a national championship..
Jason, you went over the top when you made fun of Mr. Spock
Some GT graduate will come up behind you and suprise you with the old Vulcan nerve pinch if you don’t watch out.
I bet you didn’t like Lord of the Rings or The Matrix either…
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 2:32 pm
Shep,
My logic is, as nearly always, flawless.
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 2:33 pm
For the record, I didn’t like The Matrix at all.
So, mark that down, you record-keepers.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 2:35 pm
Funny parody from Scrappleface.com:
Huckabee, Obama End Divisiveness, Unite Campaigns
http://www.scrappleface.com/?p=2842
Huckabee, Obama End Divisiveness, Unite Campaigns
by Scott Ott for ScrappleFace
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 2:37 pm
I can not believe why anyone would not like The Matrix. I did not like the final one but liked the first and second one.
We took an IT field trip from work to see LOTR 2 and 3 , Matrix 2 and 3 and Star Wars 2 and 3 opening day.
I don’t think it is geeky at all to like those movies..
Bill Simon 01.04.08 at 3:01 pm
Also, for the record, I didn’t like ‘Kill Bill” Part 1 or 2 either.
Still Looking 01.04.08 at 3:24 pm
John Konop,
I’m with you on negative campaigning. Voters are sick of it. The Iowa voters were bombarded with political ads. Those that went negative like Romney were punished. Huckabee’s news conference announcing he was pulling negative ads was rewarded.
HRC will be tempted to go negative against Obama. When she does, it will cost her. She’ll appear to be from the old school and it will revive the Clinton fatique.
This is an election about competancy, change and uniting the country. Wedge issues and negative campaigns used so effectively in the past by Rove, Reed and Atwater won’t work.
SpaceyG 01.04.08 at 4:21 pm
Man oh man, wait ’til the Clinton machine gets to SC to wage war on Obama there. Yikes. Even poor Lee Atwater’s ghost should be shakin’ by now.
And Erick, hon. Seems Matt’s pollin’ was right all along. First to call Huckabee… Last minute IA poll showed Obama ahead. Time to refresh the ‘tude, eh?
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 4:23 pm
I have been a GOP activist since 1976. Every election cycle I hear, “Voters are sick of negative campaigning and it will backfire this time.”
You know what you still have negative campaigning because it works. It will continue as long as it works..
It did not work in Iowa because the voters cast their vote for Huckabee because Huckabee touted his religion. 6 in 10 were evangelicals. They were mostly one issue voters. They could care less about Hucksters record or the fact he is a fiscal liberal. They just like what they heard from Huckabee.
Other states are not like Iowa. It will be interesting to see how the Huckster holds up under negative campaigning in other states.
The way Huckster conducted his campaign in Iowa will hurt him in other states.
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 4:31 pm
What do yo think the Democrats will do to Huckabee if he is the nominee? The information below is just a tidbit of the negatives on the Huckster.
http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/33391ddb-ed1f-4bc3-9d19-cdca6181d5d4
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
An Open Letter From An Arkansas Evangelical
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 5:41 PM
In the in-box:
A Plea from Arkansas: Christian Conservatives Need to Take a Closer Look at Mike Huckabee
debbie0040 01.04.08 at 4:32 pm
Monday, November 13, 2006 12:13 PM CST
Huckabees Registered For Gifts
By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau