Marshall v. Goddard

I’ve said for two years that the only man who could beat Jim Marshall was Rick Goddard, the retired General who ran the local air force base. I went to hear Goddard speak tonight at an event. He’s got a bit of the lack of polish of a new candidate, but then it was just a small get together and he wasn’t being very formal.

I think this district leans Marshall, but I see a clear path to victory for Rick Goddard, especially considering the present number of Democrats nationally who are no longer looking at helping a Marshall because they think they can keep the House without him and he votes against things like SCHIP.

Marshall only won by 1700 votes last year against Mac Collins, who didn’t run a well oiled campaign in my opinion, both running in a relatively new district that leans Republican. If Hillary is the nominee, I think you’ll see districts like the 8th in Georgia turn out a huge white male demographic to try to shut her down, and they’ll vote for the General over Marshall. In fact, looking at turn out models, I think you’ll see substantial additional people turn out in a Presidential year in this district and most of these people will be Republican, given the district demographics.

GA-08 leans Marshall, but I’m starting to see a clear path for Goddard.

12 comments

  1. Adrian Doyle says:

    Erick, I agree. I would say it leans Marshall, but not without giving him a race.

    One problem I see is that with all these new freshmen to protect and the DCCC’s plan to target a lot more, Georgia may not get as many resources. Certainly the DCCC is flush with money, but I think that they’re going to be more judicious down here and if they have to pick between Marshall and Barrow, they are going to go with the one that votes with them more often (Barrow, albeit only slightly).

  2. Bull Moose says:

    The cash advantage that the DCCC has vs. the NRCC is significant and shouldn’t be counted out.

    The DCCC will be able to throw money to both Barrow and Marshall, as well as a host of other seats that they might be able to make competitive.

    For the NRCC, they are going to be first looking to hold onto what they have and then looking at what open seats they can secure and then finally looking at strong challenger races.

    Goddard meets the criteria to be one of those strong challenger candidates and I think he’ll be fine with or without the financial heft of the NRCC.

  3. CHelf says:

    If he does not come with a fat wallet odds are he’s doing it without DC cash assistance. The Dems are severely beating the GOP on cash on hand. Seeing the retirements and the seats on the line, most money will go to shore up seats opened up by retirees. Goddard will be down the totem pole as far as money requests.

    And yes Marshall barely beat Collins but Collins was a former Congressman with an established name and record. Goddard is coming out of the blue and since we’re ‘winning’ in Iraq, that issue is sliding in the minds of many voters in GA.

  4. ugavi says:

    Goddard is a great guy, and would be a great Congressman. As with any other political race, money will be a factor. He got off to a good start, now needs to build out it and raise some cash. Mac should sit this one out.

  5. ToddH says:

    If it becomes a bruising primary b/w Goddard and Collins then Marshalls wins easier than expected. Even with Democratic dissatifaction at Marshall I still see the DCCC pouring some serious cash into this race and with the NRCC, at a serious cash disadvantage, scrambling to retain seats caused by Republican retirements I think Marshall wins one of his easier elections, not to mention that looking at campaigning abilities I think Marshall, an experienced campaigner outclasses a campaign inexperienced Goddard. It’s too bad b/c I’d like to see the hypocrite Marshall go away.

  6. drjay says:

    couldn’t sonny find a nice spot for collins to enjoy his retirement like on the dot or state board or education to keep him busy and out of this congressional race…from what i’ve heard the general is a little underwhelming on the campaign trail but that he has potential…of the 2 i find marshall more palatable than barrow and wish barrow gone from congress so he can go back to athens…

  7. drjay says:

    does collins know that? he never even conceded the last race and i thought the last i had heard, collins had not ruled 08 out–i hope you are right but sometimes politicians do not do what appears on the surface to be the rational course of action…

  8. Jmac says:

    That’s still Marshall’s seat to lose. The name recognition and connection he’s got with the folks in that area is too strong to overcome.

  9. rural independent says:

    Even if Hillary Clinton is the nominee in 2008, voters in the 8th district can still vote against her & at the same time vote for Jim Marshall because his views & positions are in connection with voters in the district, especially in the southern portion of the district. And if Goddard were to beat marshall in 2008, I think Marshall would run for governor in 2010, which will give him a two year head start of campaigning in the state. That will give him an advantage over other potential candidates.

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