Some Iowa polling for your enjoyment.

Here’s some Presidential caucus polling of Iowa conducted by the University of Iowa between October 17-24. The sample size seems small (285 likely Republican caucus voters and 306 likely Democrat caucus-goers) however it’s for a caucus not a primary so I’ll assume it’s OK.

THE NUMBERS

9 comments

  1. Burdell says:

    Bigger question is what will happen to Obama if Obama wins Iowa?

    Since 1972, the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus has become President….once. And that was Bill Clinton, who ran unopposed there in 1996.

    So if Obama wins in Iowa, I expect he will be worried.

  2. Donkey Kong says:

    Burdell,

    Since 1972, we have only had two Democratic Presidents.

    So if Obama wins in Iowa, and a Democrat wins the Presidency, Obama has a 50% chance of being President.

  3. Chris says:

    Humm, perhaps blowing off that straw poll wasn’t such a good idea.

    I lose track, what are the first 3-4 states to vote?

    Iowa, NH, FL & SC?

  4. Burdell says:

    Donkey Kong,

    Shhh…don’t ruin my joke with pesky facts. I’m trying my best to imitate the lib’rals!

  5. John Konop says:

    In fairness to Ron Paul caucus polling is representative of Party insiders. As we all know the Party is shrinking while Insiders attack anyone who questions our failed foreign Policy in Iraq. Paul was even not invited to a debate in Iowa by insiders.

    The real test will be New Hampshire for Ron Paul is when all voters have a say. As I said in the past I do not 100% agree with Ron Paul but the constituent attacks on him for being against our Iraq war strategy will result in more lost seats in the House and Senate. The GOP insiders may win the battle but at the end they will pay a big price in 08.

    As far as the presidential race when you look past the spin Hillary basically supports Bush

  6. Brian Laurens says:

    Farris,

    Here is the list, along with who the lead candidate is in the polls:

    Iowa- Mitt Romney by 13.5pts

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

    Huckabee is slowing trending up in the polls, and with Fred faultering so much and Rudy ignoring the state- Mitt will win here. Huckabee is the only one who could upset him, but with 1.5 million on hand is unlikely. One poll this week showed Romney with 20+ pt lead also.

    New Hampshire-Mitt Romney by 8pts

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

    New Hampshire is going to be the battleground state. McCain won it in 2000, Rudy has very high name ID, yet Mitt is still leading. If Romneys strategy stays consistent, with time and money, I think he will win. This one could shift easily though.

    South Carolina- Mitt Romney by 7pts

    http://greenvilleonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071031/NEWS01/710310360

    Biggest shock of the day. I would have never of guessed that Mitt had moved up so much. The lastest two polls have showed a trend of Romney increasing, probably because he just went on TV in the past two or three weeks. South Carolina is oo close to even predict right now.

    Florida- Rudy by 10pts

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html

    Rudy has kept a persistent lead here. But having attended the Presidency 4 and the GOP debate last weekend, most Floridians have narrowed this down to a two person contest between Romeny and Rudy. Rudy should still take Florida, I mean comeon half of Floridians are really New Yorkers, or were at some point in their life.

    Nevada-Statistical tie between Rudy and Mitt

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_republican_caucus-235.html

    Nevada is very Mormon. Although this is a statistical tie, most LDS will vote for Mitt. Nevada should go to Romney.

    Michigan- Mitt by 5.2 pts

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

    Now clearly with Michigan being Romneys hometown this lead will widen. Michigan will go for Romney.

    Executive Summary:
    Mitt is on track to win 4 out of the first 6, while still coming in second in the other two. Can you envision a better strategy? Out of the first 6 primaries, he is currently in the lead in 5 of them.

    Can Rudy afford to wait until Florida to win one? Thompson I guess is banking on South Carolina, but what if he does not win there? But in all honesty, even if Rudy and Thompson take FL, and SC, can Romney be stopped if he wins the other 4? Thoughts to ponder.

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