53 comments

  1. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Bull, I love ya man but you’ve got on the koolaide, remember what happened to the last guy that was pushing the juice. At the end of the day you will get your heart right and join the team and we will again. The only difference is we will celebrate in DC instead of Atlanta. Can’t wait to call you teammate….

  2. Painterman says:

    I think the money issue will change once he makes a formal announcement. Which I hope is fairly soon.

    FYI – McCain’s Media staff resigned due to lack of pay.

  3. buzzbrockway says:

    I like Fred a lot but this report is cause for concern. He’s also had some staff problems and frankly I’m not excited about Spencer Abraham in such a prominent role in the pre-campaign.

    That being said, Fred is still the front runner for me.

  4. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    After reading this column it is evident the left dems are scared to death of a Thompson ticket. Remember the old war addage guys , …divide and conquer. This is a classic case of paranoia ,
    attacking a man’s wife is pretty weak and this early but ,what do you expect from the weak.

  5. I Am Jacks Post says:

    Every journalist under the sun is reporting that John McCain’s campaign has repeatedly failed to meet fundraising expectations and is sinking fast. The campaign has fallen tens of millions of dollars shy of what it had hoped to raise, and the campaign has blown through their budget at record pace.

    Additionally, all but one of McCain’s senior advisors has left the campaign staff and his entire media team resigned today. All this from a campaign which has for two years now tried to portray an air of inevitability.

    Presidential campaigns are marathons, not sprints, and McCain has pulled a hammy with 4 miles to go. There is a long way to go folks, but we should be down to 3 legitimate candidates within 30 days! Stay tuned.

  6. Bull Moose says:

    The only thing that you’re right about Southern Comfort is that we will soon be down to three serious candidates, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. Mitt Romney is like our John Edwards.

    I know you guys make fun of me for saying that it’s a marathon and not a sprint, but it’s a good analogy for how Presidential campaigns go.

    You have your ups and downs. Anyone remember these famous frontrunners: Elizabeth Dole, Wes Clark, Lamar Alexander, Howard Dean…

    All I’m saying is that it is still early and there will be more twists and turns.

    At the end of the day, I think America wants someone who is going to be honest with them and who has a consistent record on what they say and what they do. That person is John McCain. He is our best chance of beating Hillary Clinton in November 2008.

  7. Bull Moose says:

    OH, and let me say this, the last campaign that was full of old Bush folks has fallen apart and we’re trying hard to put it back together again (McCain). So, I’m glad that they are now all flocking to the Thompson effort. Shouldn’t take them too long to try and run that one into the ground too.

  8. Inside_Man says:

    jsm,

    Wouldn’t be nice if they were as good at running the government as running an election?

  9. CHelf says:

    Ahhh yes. When campaigns don’t make the mark they leak numbers ahead of time to downplay the negative effects. Blame it on not announcing but fundraising worked for others before they officially announced. Either the GOP donors are all tapped out (looking at party comparisons) or the lobbyist/trial lawyer groups have already tapped out for the other side. 😉

  10. AlanR says:

    Bull Moose — Randy Enright is from the other Bush campaign, and he is really good. He did a great job for Jeb and for the state party in Florida. Thompson is lucky to have him.

    Spence is like watching paint dry. I hope Enright is allowed to run things and do it right.

  11. Bill Simon says:

    Geez, I hate to be the one to bring logic and commonsense to the world of politics, but the month of July is NOTORIOUSLY a month when folks go out of town on family vacations, etc.

    Fred was able to get some ealry fundraisers in the first week in July, but it’s been flat ever since. So what? I can tell you it is due to the people who would normally be throwing money into Fred’s barrel are out spending time with the family and, when school start season begins, the Fall Rush will produce a stampede of funds rolling in.

    News reporters have absolutely no concept of “seasonality.” Thus the fact that they are grasping at straws on this “revelation” of a slow-down in FDT’s inflows.

  12. CHelf says:

    So Bill can we apply that logic to McCain’s drought? And are Dems avoiding vacations since they are raising many times the GOP now? You don’t have to be in town to write a check. Plus this overwhelming swellof support should in theory translate to large sums of money should they not? Where’s the non-conventional online fundraising? People are around to answer the pollster calls and support Fred. But where are the checks? Seasonality is a convenient excuse but not always reality in politics.

    You are attacking news reporters who are only passing on leaked info from the campaign. Don’t shoot the messenger. Fred’s campaign had a goal of $5 million during this period. Shouldn’t they have planned for this same seasonality the press is clueless on? If they missed their mark then there will be all sorts of implications and speculation.

  13. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Bill, not to mention most are on the left or left leaning and a Thompson ticket scares the hell out of them, just when they thought one of thier own may have a chance. Don’t fool yourself the Dems are looking past the primaries and the last thing they wanted was FT to get in and they will do whatever they can to discredit or under report the facts.

  14. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    CHelf, the campaign has not started, wake up and quit crying wolf you look weak doing so. You guys kill me, disquise your fear better or at least try to. The wolf will be at your door soon enough,for now just relax and enjoy the summer.( ha-ha it’s going to be fun!)

  15. CHelf says:

    Has not started? Officially it has not. YOU look weak acting as if the guy, who has not started as you say, is the man for next November. Sorry to break this to you but vetting a potential nominee is far different than fear as you say. You keep saying Fred is not official but yet you make him out to be official and unstoppable. Fred will be vetted. And counter to your own beliefs it will be by Republicans and dare I say staunch conservatives. As I said before, he has loads of potential. But putting all of your eggs in a basket that has yet to announce or state policy positions is a little premature don’t you think? No fear…just common sense. Just waiting to see if he first of all announces, can raise the money, sides with the positions I care about, and can hold up in a debate. I usually wait to test drive a car before it makes it off the assembly line. 😉

  16. Doug Deal says:

    I have apet theory as to why his fundraising did not meet expectations.

    Perhaps it’s because people do not want to give money to a Hollywood actor that has yet to participate in a debate, attend a town hall meeting or take policy questions from the press.

    Perhaps secluding himself in his stronghold perfecting his obviously intricately detailed, genius of a master plan is less effective than he thought. Dare I say it may have underwelmed a supporter or two?

    But what do I know?

  17. dorian says:

    You know what Fred’s biggest problem is? He’s not Ron Paul. Ron Paul, now there’s a candidate for true republicans. Have you heard? Jesus is gonna vote for Ron Paul. Ron Paul is as red blodded as baseball and apple pie. You don’t hear any of this nonsense coming outta Ron Pauls’s campaign. Ron Paul is sitting on a war chest. Ron Paul likes to beat drums and slow dance to the Beatle’s ‘White” album, too. Ron Paul is better than an astronaut who works part-time as a fireman and loves kids and dogs.

  18. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Like Landman said in another post measure twice ..cut once. He will announce, the coffers will fill and he will be on the ticket in November and I promise I will not come on here and say I told you so. As fas as the car and assembly line analogy goes personally I custom order so as to know what to expect when the delivery is made.

  19. CHelf says:

    Then explain how other campaigns raised money before they officially announced and Fred allegedly has not. How is Fred your custom order?

  20. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    When you are not spending money and your poll numbers are growing and the only naysayers are left wingers thats pretty custom for this Reagan republican. I bet Rudy, Mitt and John are not of your mindset. They are very aware of the battle to come once we’re engaged.

  21. jsm says:

    ” I usually wait to test drive a car [AFTER] it makes it off the assembly line.”

    Me, too. I also read reviews about it in the auto magazines. What I DON’T do is hit it with a baseball bat to test its durability before the test drive.

  22. rugby_fan says:

    Actually most of the criticisms against Fred seem to be coming from Republicans.

    It’s just a convenient excuse for Fredheads to label an opponent as a “liberal”, “Democrat”, or “liberal Democrat”.

  23. jackson says:

    I, for one, think its pretty silly and disingenous to say FDT “didn’t meet expections” when they were his own expectations. So he misjudged. Big deal.
    If he had “expectations” for $2M would you be saying that he “greatly exceeding expectations, raising 50% more then he even thought possible.”? Doubt it.

    The guy still has $3m or more and basically did nothing to get it. Even better, none of that money counts against the limits because it is for the exploratory effort. So he can use it all up, then go raise and spend some actual money for the campaign.

    The one thing ya’ll miss is that everyone is talking about FDT right now, not Rudy or Romney and definitely not McCain (unless its about his implosion – sorry, Bull). Either they think the guy is the real deal and are nervous/excited about him, or they are completely bored out of their mind. Could be either, but they’re talking about him. Bottom line is, he doing amazing in most polls, and hasnt really even spent the money, time or resources the other folks have. That should say something.

    Every candidate goes through the vetting process. The question is: Do they have the ability and team in place to move forward? Guiliani looks like he is pulling out of it now and is getting his legs under him. He took a pounding for a long time.

    If you think that raising $3m is BAD when you do almost nothing to get it, then ya’ll need to go back to campaign school.

  24. Doug Deal says:

    Southern,

    Measure once? He looks more like an apprentice tailor measuring as many times as he can to delay having to make his first suit as long as possible.

  25. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    DD, measure twice my friend, once to record second to confirm. I’m excited you guys are so eager for FT to announce officially,what then will you do? The ol pistol to mouth exercise.Again I say enjoy your summer for the Fall is coming.( no pund intended ha-ha).

  26. IndyInjun says:

    RON PAUL is going to shock the political world.

    It is still early.

    He is impossibly old, implausibly frail, and is not anyone’s model for the PRESENCE we yearn for in a POTUS.

    He is also impudently independent, intractibly for the CONSTITUTION, and insatiably refreshing.

    The GOP has an Iraq fiasco that is getting worse, a POTUS who is the worst of all time, even if he doesn’t attack Iran, and THE PEOPLE are getting a gut full of him to the point that he really could be impeached.

    What is worse for the GOP is that – beyond the corruption of the Abramoffs, the Reeds, the DeLays, the Cunninghams, the Vitters, and the Foleys – their patrons and puppetmasters on Wall Street have applied 20 FOLD LEVERAGE to brokered mortgages, which is unwinding as I type this.

    RON PAUL has been a financial lion in speaking out against these things.

    Lennin wrote that the way to destroy the middle class is to grind them between the millstones of inflation and taxation.

    The Dems are the party of TAXATION.

    The GOP is the party of INFLATION.

    The people are tired of them both.

    As the ruinous excesses perpetrated by Bush become manifest over the coming months, the oppressed people will turn to a man who can inspire them just by being honest. (It doesn’t hurt that he has it on film that he told ’em so…)

    RON PAUL 2008!

  27. jackson says:

    The bottom line on Ron Paul is that he may have good ideas, and I agree with him on some, but he’s not a leader. If he was, he’d be able to convince the folks he works with to support his ideas and pass them, or at least convince even a large number of Republicans to put their faith in him. To me, it doesnt matter what you speak out against or for, if you dont have the ability to convince others to follow you. That’s what you have to do to be an effective president.

  28. Bill Simon says:

    Ya know, Indy, up until today, I’d be in agreement with you that the current POTUS is the worst ever.

    In fact, before today, I was pretty much saying he sucked pretty bad.

    BUT, I got to thinking about it a little bit further (again, today, for some reason), and I have to contradict my earlier self.

    This Administration DOES suck, is corrupt and all that.;..BUT one key difference between it and the Clinton Administration’s corruption is that NO ONE has died under mysterious circumstances.

    No occurrence of someone like Vince Foster ending-up with a hole to the back of the head and having it ruled a suicide.

    No taking-down of an entire lfight to kill-off one Secretary of Commerce (e.g., Ron Brown).

    No history of sexual affairs with women whose innocent connections with bystanders cause those bystanders to meet with their Maker a little earlier than they were supposed to.

    No, Indy, I think that while Bush is bad, the Klintons were a much worse bunch of people to deal with. They got their enemies killed. All Bush does is just tell his enemies to go to Hell with their questions.

    If we have to always deal with some kind of corrupt administration (as it seems we’ve had to since January of 2003 through today) in these modern times, I’ll take the idiocy of the Bush Administration any day over the Klinton Death Squads.

  29. Bill Simon says:

    Whoops. Corrections:

    No taking-down of an entire flight to kill-off one Secretary of Commerce (e.g., Ron Brown).

    If we have to always deal with some kind of corrupt administration (as it seems we

  30. IndyInjun says:

    Jackson – When you have a party gone bad en masse, you would have the one man with principles go down in their orgy of corruption.

    It will take PRINCIPLES AND LEADERSHIP to set things right and the leadership cannot come from one of the sweaty orgy participants.

    End of story.

    Do I wish Paul was younger and more dynamic. You bet.

    At this point he is all we have.

    We Indies are poised to totally wipe out the GOP as a national party. In many ways we are more antiBush than even the Dems.

    It is either be reformed by returning to stated principles or an electoral wipe-out.

    I simply won’t vote for anyone with the GOP label other than Ron Paul.

    Bill Simon – At last count Bush was working on getting 4000 of our troops killed and tens of thousands more maimed for life.

    The Foster and Brown deals have no smoking guns, nor do they have Saddam’s pistol as a trophy, unlike the juvenile Bush.

    Clinton, for whom I did not vote, unlike Bush, had too many scandals, but they are insignificant by comparison to the corruption under Bush.

  31. Donkey Kong says:

    Indy,

    How is this administration one of inflation? You are contradicting every credible economic report, and I’m just curious what your credentials are and why we should believe you over the top economists in the world.

  32. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Indy, so who will you vote for Hillary that’s a classic case of cutting your nose off to spite your face.

  33. Inside_Man says:

    Donkey Kong,

    Inflation works gradually to erode purchasing power over time. The Federal Reserve manipulates the prime rate to bring inflation to what they call an “acceptable level”. This tends to be around 3% annually, with a margin of about a point either way. The reason for this is to maintain stability. Inflationary policies erode both the value of a debt burden and the value of interest earned besides the general purchasing power of a dollar. 3-4% a year doesn’t seem like much, and it isn’t supposed to. 3-4% a year, every year, for five years? Your dollar is worth $.80. See how it works?

  34. Donkey Kong says:

    Inside_Man,

    Haha, I know how inflation works. I work in the financial services industry. Thanks for the tutorial though!

    Comparatively speaking, we are in times of unprecedented low inflation. Compare it to any other country, at any time period, and our stable, low rate of inflation is a phenomenal achievement. You guys are saying that we are in a high period of inflation…compared to what?? Anyone who says 3-4% of inflation is high is either completely ignorant of economics or delusional. I don’t mean this personally, but please. The Fed has done very well to control inflation at such a stable, low rate and still allow for the economic boom of the last few decades.

    Yeah, ok, so one dollar five years from now will be worth less. So what do you do? You take your dollar and invest it, earning back the cost of inflation plus a lot more.

  35. Donkey Kong says:

    “Haha, I know how inflation works. I work in the financial services industry. Thanks for the tutorial though!”

    BTW, I didn’t mean to come across as an @ss. Just saying that I understand inflation.

  36. Icarus says:

    O.K., I’m going to dive in a little deeper, and probably over my head.

    We bought our way out of a potentially deep recession after 911 by cutting interest rates to the absolute bone. It worked, but I think history will tell us we left rates too low for too long. The current housing/mortgage slump is the best example of this. During this time, the dollar’s value has eroded on exchange markets, causing import prices to go up. Rising interest rates continue to depress the housing industry, and the feds need to cut rates to soften the blow, but can’t because of underlying inflation which is at 3-4% (about the same rate when Nixon tried wage and price controls.)

    This is combined with rising long term oil prices, will continue to push inflation as the costs of production increases. I am growing increasingly concerned that the fed will have to ignore the softening economy and again (similar to Volker) have to raise interest rates to counteract the inflation caused by rising commodity prices.

  37. Joy says:

    Was inflating credit to allow for interest rate cuts really the cure to a recession? I thought it just delayed the inevitable.

    And, seeing as how there’s now a history of what happens during rate hikes with inflation, are predictions that it will counteract current inflation trends reliable? People will react differently now that they have additional information, won’t they?

  38. CHelf says:

    Another top staffer left last night. Apparently another one leaving due to Jeri. Is this a Republican version of Primary Colors?

  39. Icarus says:

    “Was inflating credit to allow for interest rate cuts really the cure to a recession?”

    Yes, if you mean cutting rates to increase liquidity in a system during a period of extreme uncertainty. The fact that the rates stayed too low, too long, combined with the total lack of removal of most credit standards in the Sub-Prime market, may have made the inevitable much worse.

    “People will react differently now that they have additional information, won

  40. Donkey Kong says:

    Icarus,

    I agree about the negative effects of the rate cuts, and its something I’ve previously commented on here on PP (esp. pertaining to CDO’s, CLO’s, subprime, and the overall credit market), though I’m not convinced that it will send us into recession. Inflation indicators show that its starting to level off. I think there is still a possibility that we slip into a recession, but the global economy has been progressing very well, and I hope that they carry us through the next year or so while we ride out this credit correction. But let’s be clear–had Greenspan and the Fed not cut rates, we would have very likely slipped into recession, caused NOT by ecoonomic factors so much as by uncertainty in the marketplace. The only upside to market irrationality lies with those who can recognize the irrationality and act on it, making huge profits. But its not PC to be the shrewdest businessperson and make a lot of $$ anymore, so I guess that’s a bad thing. The point of my musings is that inflation is not expected to continue increasing much more. Even if it reaches 5%, historically and comparatively, the rate is low. Not great, but still permissible.

    As Jim Cramer says, there’s always a bull market somewhere. The key is to find it.

    The Fed’s drastic rate cuts artificially upheld the economy for a while. It may have saved us from a recession, it may not have, and this uncertainty is being played out in the marketplace. But at the end of the day, the Fed took a risk. Had they not cut rates, we would have very likely slipped into recession. With their rate cut, we have, according to Greenspan, only a 50% chance of recession. Economics is about choosing the profit-maximizing decision. The Fed did just that by choosing to cut the rates, expecting the positive effects of rate cuts to outweigh the negative effects. So far, they have proven to be right, but the uncertainty still lingers, and the Fed’s decision has yet to be completely vindicated.

    Please excuse my verbosity. I had to get this nailed out before I ran to a meeting.

  41. Donkey Kong says:

    Icarus, Indy,

    AH HA!

    Below is from Yahoo Business (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070727/economy.html?.v=14):

    “The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year.”

    “Even as the economy picked up speed in the spring, inflation managed to settle down.

    An inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed “core” prices — excluding food and energy — rose at a rate of just 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That was down sharply from a 2.4 percent pace in the first quarter and was the smallest increase in four years.”

    Ahem, fellas. Gimme some numbers on how I’m wrong. And I want numbers, or the best dang economic explanation on how we are in a high inflation period, otherwise I’ll call the match.

    Cheers.

  42. Icarus says:

    I don’t think we’re in a high inflation period yet. I fear we may be entering one.

    The problem is, we also have a lot of signs (mostly housing and auto related) that point to an economic cooldown, which could also have an anti-inflationary aspect.

    The tightening of the credit market for both housing and Private Equity (good thread on that at RedState, btw) could be taking care of it, as well.

    Ah, the markets at work. Beautiful thing when it’s not scaring the heck out of ya.

  43. IndyInjun says:

    SouthernComfort – I will be voting for Hillary Clinton IF throwing the GOP out en masse is the ONLY SOLUTION to reclaiming the PARTY OF CONSERVATISM from the liars, crooks, and con artists who now have command.

    Old timer Vic God, who recently wrote “Invasion of the Party Snatchers: How the Holy Rollers and Neocons Destroyed the GOP,” says the party must die and be reborn.

    If the party rejects the ONE MAN who has been steadfast to the CONSTITUTION, a consistent champion of rights of the individual, and the foremost advocate of government spending restraint, we are going to kill it off for as long as it takes to purge the imposters.

    The GOP has 30% of the people, the Dems have 37%, and we indies are 33%.

    WE are the deciders and you have to come BACK to us with an acceptable proposal to gain our favorable dispensation.

    If it takes voting for Hillary to get the GOP back in our hands, SO BE IT.

  44. Donkey Kong says:

    Indy,

    The current GOP leadership led the coup against Newt Gingrich in the late 1990’s. The Contract with America walked out the door with Newt, and we can thank the current GOP leadership for ending our brief 4 years of Congressional restraint.

  45. IndyInjun says:

    DK,

    We agree on somethings and not on others, OF COURSE.

    As to inflation, I think we have been around that before…….Webster’s long defined “inflation” as a growth in money supply. Fed M3 had already undergone a roughly 50% expansion under Bush before the Fed discontinued publishing the M3 measure last year. The Shadow Government Statistics site has put the reconstituted M3 growth rates as 12% for 2006 and 2007. With compounding the M3 measure will be up a minimum of 75% during the Bush years.

    As for the “core inflation” one cannot live without consuming food and energy, so the official governments stats WAY understate inflation.

    One of the greatest dangers to a pol is to go out amongst folks, who have medical insurance premiums going up 30% a year and who buy groceries every week, and talk about how “low inflation” is these days.

    Dr. Paul has been on top of the money printing and preaches against the INFLATION TAX. His tough questioning of Greenspan and Bernanke in the House are on record.

    He doesn’t think that doubling the OFFICIAL DEBT of the US – part and parcel of the mad money creation – in such short a period can do anything other than create hyperinflation and neither do I.

    Just last week, I saw that beef tallow, the principle ingredient in bar soap has DOUBLED IN JUST THE LAST YEAR.

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