So, With Less Than A Week, What Do I Think Will Happen?

The Macon Mayoral race is coming to an end. Sure there is technically a general election in November, but for all intents and purposes, the race will end on Tuesday, coupled with a runoff. Here’s what I see happening. I say this knowing a few people will get bent out of shape, but objectively, here’s the deal.

Robert Reichert will come in first place and Lance Randall will edge out Henry Ficklin for second place. The second place finish will be close, but Lance will get it. Reichert will woo Ficklin, Ponder, and Lucas for their endorsements and be mostly unsuccessful.

Lance will rally all but North Macon and turn out the vote from churches and housing projects going into the runoff and become the next Mayor of Macon.

And here’s the kicker

3 comments

  1. Doug Deal says:

    Erick, the following makes no sense at all:

    Reichert may still pull it off. If the black vote in Macon is heavily divided, he may get out of it without a runoff.

    What difference does the division of the black vote matter. For example, lets assume a more unified black vote, voting primarily for the black candidates:

    Reichert 35
    Randall 25
    Ficklin 24
    Ponder 10
    Lucas 6

    Now, lets assume the black vote is split more evenly.

    Reichert 35
    Randall 18
    Ficklin 17
    Ponder 15
    Lucas 15

    It does not give Reichert more votes. Unless people come out specifically to vote for Reichert or the people who do not support him specifically stay home, he does not get closer to more than 50%.

    Unless he can win in a runnoff, he can’t win.

  2. Erick says:

    Doug, i f the black vote is more heavily divided, he’ll pick up a decent share too. I should have been more clear on that point.

  3. Doug Deal says:

    Oh, gotcha.

    If it is evenly split, each candidate will get about 20% each, or 15 % of the total vote. With 100% of the white vote, who all have to then vote in the Dem primary, going to Reichert that would be right at 50%. I don’t think he would get 100% of the white vote though, or more than 1/5 of the black vote.

    My guess is that he will get around 35-40% in the primary, and lose with about 42-48% in the runoff.

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