John McCain is still the one in my book

I have gone on about as long as I can and put up with the Fred Thompson love fest that exists by some on the front page of this wonderful site. I know that I’m going to be upsetting the apple cart by my post, and that is fine.

UPDATE:  The respected Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll released today has Rudy Giuliani and John McCain tied with 20% each among Republicans.  The former New York Mayor has watched a 19 point lead steadily disappear over the last several months according to this same poll.

First of all, Fred Thompson is not the second coming of Ronald Reagan. He is a politician turned lobbyist turned part time actor. The facts of the matter speak for themself. I don’t have to elaborate. He is even now defending his past as a lobbyist.

Secondly, some of you seem to be living in la la land in that Thompson is some arch conservative. Again, this is not true. In fact, he and John McCain (the bain of some of you folks existence) have nearly identical voting records in the Senate.

America is looking for an AUTHENTIC leader, warts and all. They want someone who is going to have the guts to tackle the hard problems facing our country with courage and convictions. I still submit to you that candidate is John McCain.

Politician turned lobbyist turned part time actor Thompson has a few issues with some of his past clients and that is sure not to warm well to some Americans. Mitt Romney is now self financing his campaign to keep his poll numbers high. The wheels are beginning to fall off the cart that is the Rudy Giuliani effort with his losing his top campaign chairs in Iowa and South Carolina.

This Presedential campaign is a marathon, not a sprint. The battle tested candidate who can withstand the scrutiny and who has the moral convictions to be a great President is John McCain.

I have no problem with Fred Thompson even though he has a background as a lobbyist for causes I would never support. He would be an acceptable nominee behind John McCain. Even with his support for abortion rights and his heavy reliance on fear as a campaign tool, Rudy would be just fine too. And honestly, if it weren’t for the absolute confounding flip flop on almost every issue and his push for socialized medicine, I wouldn’t have a problem with Mitt Romney.

What I do have a problem with is the incesent amount of spin that is being launched here by some who are turning a blind eye to the facts of the record and the realities of winning come November 2008.

25 comments

  1. Bull Moose says:

    On playing coy on whether he’s running:

    Thompson cannot announce before June 30 because then he’d have to file with the FEC and make his fundraising numbers public. By waiting till July 1 or later, he doesn’t have to file until the next disclosure period.

  2. Jeff Emanuel says:

    Politician turned lobbyist turned part time actor Thompson has a few issues with some of his past clients and that is sure not to warm well to some Americans

    Hm. So Thompson, who “has a background as a lobbyist for causes I would never support,” has a problem now with those clients? Does that not sound like something you would support?

    Here’s the bottom line, dude: Thompson’s ex-wife and former girlfriends are endorsing him, and praising him to high heaven to boot. I’d say that’s worth 100 lobbyists, for or against.

    Top that 😉

  3. Jeff Emanuel says:

    By the way, two more things:

    (1) “Some” on the front page? I count one, perhaps two. I could be wrong; just asking for clarification.

    (2) Did you perhaps miss this? 🙂

  4. Bull Moose says:

    Jeff, why so defensive?

    My main issue with his lobbying background has to do with the savings and loan scandal and his lobbying for disposed Haitian dictator Aristide.

    I could care less what his girl friends think or his ex-wife for that matter. John McCain’s ex-wife supports McCain. Great! It means nothing to me.

    My God, we’re talking about the leader of the free of our country, not President of the neighborhood association.

    Jeff, you’re a nice guy and I have no issue with you, but come on already. I’m for McCain, you’re for Thompson, I’m not going to convince you and you’re not going to convince me.

    Enough!

  5. jsm says:

    McCain is toast. You should see the handwriting on the wall, Bull.

    I look forward to all the hashing of Fred’s record. It will help his poll numbers. I also look forward to Fred vs. Hillary. Now THAT will be something to see!

  6. I Am Jacks Post says:

    Bull,

    How in the world do you bust on Thompson’s alleged work for savings and loans, and at the same time completely overlook McCain’s role as one of the key members of the Keating 5 scandal?

    Man, you are totally reading from the hymnal.

    Quit being such a ponce.

  7. Icarus says:

    O.K. Bull,

    It’s your buddy Icarus talking here. We’re going to work through this. It’s going to be O.K.

    First, we all know that John McCain is the one true conservative. After all, we’ve read it here many times, so it must be true.

    So let’s take this point by point:

    1. Fred Thompson is not Ronald Reagan. Most here and at Redstate have acknowledged that Reagan, a true American hero, is dead. He’s not coming back. Peggy Noonan even wrote a column about how we don’t want another Reagan. He was the right man at the right time, but we need another right man for this time. She noted that no one wanted Kennedy to be another Roosevelt, but to be the best he could be for his time. Likewise, we need a post 9/11 leader.

    Thompson has a lot of Reagan’s admirable qualities that are timeless, however. He is articulate and can communicate. He can speak about conservatism without threatening the middle. He lacks “Angry White Man Syndrome”tm, which usually personifies our candidates. We need Reagan Democrats back. Rudy, Fred, and McCain are arguably the best three for that.

    2. Thompson is no “arch conservative”. He leans hard right, but is soft enough to be non-threatening to the centrist Republicans and independent voters. McCain, however, has so courted these centrists and indys that he’s often thumbed his nose at the Republican base. Our base, like the elephants that we use as a symbol, has a long memory. And we hold grudges.

    Third, an AUTHENTIC leader has people that follow him. McCain so loves his indy status that he often finds himself alone or hangin with Ted Kennedy. What group of Republicans has he led? Is he even leading in polls in his home state? Is he anywhere near leading in fundraising? What, exactly, is he leading?

    So, that’s a long enough post for now, and I’ve got dinner plans. Everyone discuss among yourselves. Whatever you do, don’t put BM back in a cage. Don’t have time for that.

    Might want to figure out what TV show McCain should be on after Mitt gets his Price is Right gig…

  8. DAMY46 says:

    McCain is dull and worn out……….

    Fred has ‘sex appeal’.

    He will do just fine..(Fred can take Hillary)

    Donald

  9. BrianDart says:

    McCain is in bad shape a new Nevada poll has him down. With Nevada being Arizona’s neighbor, it makes McCain look weak.

    This new poll also shows Fred in 1st place. So, Fred’s “flash in the pan” numbers are starting to flare up into a much larger thing them some want to admit.

    Fred Thompson – 29.0 percent
    Rudy Giuliani – 26.5 percent
    Mitt Romney – 20.1 percent
    John McCain – 11.0 percent
    Others – 13.2 percent

    Done by Battle Born News.

  10. Bull Moose says:

    Dart, don’t make me laugh. This new national poll has a tie for first place — that right — McCain and Rudy! Deal with it!

    Fred Thompson is a total media creation the same way that Wes Clark was in 2004. At this same time in 2004, Wes Clark was the best thing since slice bread!

    This is a MARATHON not a sprint.

    These things go up and they go down.

    Get ready to start defending those lobbying ties! The media that so created your adored candidate is ready to turn on him and so soon!

  11. I Am Jacks Post says:

    It’s sad that a candidate who’s tied for the lead, if this poll is to be believed, has to hold press conferences every day to announce that he’s not quitting the race. Not the sort of earned media you’d like.

  12. Bull Moose says:

    If Thompson were to be our nominee, it would be the first time that a major party nominated a federally registered lobbyist.

    Again, I do not believe that America is going to elect a federally registered lobbyist as President.

  13. Doug Deal says:

    Bull,

    It may be a marathon, but McCain didn’t take his carbs and he is crashing.

    I think the vultures are just about to catch the scent, and earn a quick meal.

  14. Painterman says:

    McCain will be out by Labor Day. He’s pro amnesty, A traitor to the consevative base (McCain -Feingold for one) and will not win the nomination.

    Rudy will not win either as he’s pro abortion, pro gay and anti gun. No way that wins the Republican base.

    Romney is polished, but his flips on major conservative issues will sink him with the base.

    Thompson looks pretty good right now.

  15. John Walraven says:

    Is being a lobbyist such a horrible thing? Seems to some like once registered, its an instant death to character which would disqualify one from holding office. I agree that examining the clients/causes one lobbies for is fair game in such an evaluation. Only the lobbyist can accept a client. But the “he/she is a lobbyist and therefore they suck” argument is shallow and won’t take “long,” in political time, to flesh out.

    As an aside, I’m at a gathering of GOP elected officials and campaign insiders from over 40 States this week and literally nobody has anything positive to say about McCain’s campaign in their state. I did hear an interesting discussion between campaign vets about how Thompson has zero infrastructure at this point compared to others and how in the short-term, once officially “in” the race, that will hurt in defending the pending attacks. I hadn’t thought about that.

  16. Seth Millican says:

    In January, the Maricopa County AZ Republican party had a straw poll. Out of 458 participante, McCain beat out Hagel for the most unacceptable presidential candidate. He came in fourth for overall choice for Presidential candidate. He came in ninth on the question of acceptable presidential candidate.

    Scientific? Nope. Indicative? Well, ask Strategic Vision…

  17. AlanR says:

    Authentic leader? McCain is a leader, he’s just headed in the wrong direction. Let’s see, he was the leader on McCain Feingold, Comprehensive Immigration Reform — don’t forget he didn’t want any debate — he led the fight against Bush tax cuts. I don’t think we can afford anymore of this Authentic leadership.

    What McCain does have is relationships in states with early primaries. He’s probably been in every living room in Iowa by now.

    Thompson so far is doing what Dean did — run a masterful national campaign that raises big money and energizes people all over the country. But like Dean, Thompson may find out the hard way that only Iowans can participate in the caucus and only New Hampshire and SC voters can vote in the primary. If you don’t have the people in these states to turn out your vote, you’re done. Sorry. No matter what the national polls say, infrastructure will matter and Thompson better be doing something about it right now.

    For the record, count me for Fred! but I can’t vote in Iowa, NH or SC.

  18. Inside_Man says:

    Who cares about Fred’s lobbyist days? Walraven is right- you don’t have to turn in your morals when you register to lobby. There are sleazebags throughout all the professions. If you want to talk about pasts accomplishments, check out our friend Mr. Guiliani. He was nearly broke after his latest divorce suit, now his FEC personal financial disclosures show he’s made $30 million dollars cashing in on his 9/11 legacy and representing various interests including, lets see, the government of Saudi Arabia! Am I the only person who thinks thats a little bit beyond the pale? Aristide is small potatoes next to that bunch.

    What I haven’t seen on any of these threads is the fact that in 2008 we are going to have what amounts to a national primary. No one knows how performance in the three traditional opening states will affect voters’ attitudes in the Super Duper Tuesday states. Thompson’s national media strategy may pay off, but you still have that name rec. that McCain and Guiliani can’t be touched on. I guess we shall see.

    For the record, Thompson says the right things on Federalism, but the only FOR REAL conservative in this race is Ron Paul…..sigh…..

  19. Bull Moose says:

    Hey man, I don’t think John Q. Public is going to buy the lobbyist thing. That’s all I’m saying.

    Right now, after the Abramoff scandal, lobbyists aren’t really regarded that highly on the food chain of professions.

    I agree – there are great lobbyists! When I worked in DC, I knew quite a few who were wonderful at their job and were great people.

    It’s just a reality that it is a tougher sell when you have “federally registered lobbyist” on your resume and you’re trying to run for President as an outsider.

    McCain is an American hero. You can’t doubt that. John Glenn was an American hero. Sometimes that works sometimes it doesn’t.

    McCain is still the one in my book – consistent conservative who can win in 2008 against whoever the Dems nominate!

  20. Bull Moose says:

    Don’t shoot me for cutting and pasting but this was too good to pass up sharing. Regardless of who you support for President, it is good reading:
    http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27985

    Gallup: Where The Election Stands: June 2007

    A Gallup Poll review

    By Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll

    PRINCETON, NJ — The 2008 presidential election has gotten off to an unprecedented early start. Many candidates were off and running as the year began. How much has all of the extremely early campaigning for president at this stage of the 2008 race affected voter preferences? On the Democratic side, not much. On the Republican side, not much more.

    The Fight for the Nominations

    New York Sen. Hillary Clinton established her lead among the Democratic candidates early in the process. Since January there have been two occasions when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who has been in second place during most of 2007, came within striking distance of Clinton in Gallup polls, but she has otherwise maintained her lead, which has ranged from 9 to 19 percentage points. In Gallup’s latest poll, conducted June 11-14, 2007, Clinton leads Obama by 11 points among Democrats (33% to 21%).

    Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (a formally announced candidate) and former Vice President Al Gore (who has not ruled out a bid but has said he has no plans to run at this time) have been competitive for third place among Democrats. Each has the support of at least 10% of Democrats, not too far behind Obama, but there has been little indication that either Gore or Edwards (let alone the other Democrats who will campaign for the nomination) are making significant enough gains to challenge Clinton.

    The Republican race has seen a jockeying of candidates for second place, while there has been little serious threat to the frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, since January. Giuliani emerged as the GOP leader in early February, after having been closely matched with Arizona Sen. John McCain earlier, and has held that position ever since. Both Clinton and Giuliani have seen the size of their lead in their respective primary races diminish since earlier this year, especially in the case of Giuliani, whose support level just recently fell below 30% — well below his peak of 44% in March .

    Another change in the GOP field has been the recent increase in support for former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson since his emergence in March as a possible candidate. Thompson scored 12% of the vote the first time Gallup included him in the Republican trial heats, and in the latest June poll, Thompson receives 19% of the GOP vote, earning him a tie for second place with McCain.

    Support for McCain has hovered around 20% since March, a clear change from January when he had 27% and nearly tied with Giuliani for first place. He has not faded dramatically, however.

    In recent weeks, support for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has mostly stayed below 10% nationally despite his fundraising prowess and his strong showing in several early primary state polls. Support for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich — who has said he will not decide for sure whether or not he is running until the fall — is also in this range. None of the other potential or announced candidates in the Republican Party has so far received more than a few percentage points in Gallup’s pre-election primary nomination polls.

    Eight in 10 Democrats nationwide, compared with only 6 in 10 Republicans, are satisfied with the choice of candidates for their respective party’s nomination. This relative lack of satisfaction on the GOP side could be seen as a sign of encouragement for unannounced Republicans such as Thompson and Gingrich to officially enter the race. The finding that there is a high level of satisfaction among rank-and-file members of the Democratic Party may suggest less of an opportunity for Gore if he were to decide to enter the Democratic field.

    Early Measures on the November 2008 Outcome

    Seventeen months before the nation chooses its next president, most signs from the political environment favor the Democratic Party. The Democrats have a clear advantage in party identification among the voting-age population, Americans view the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party, and the basic indicators of the nation’s mood are quite negative — something that typically bodes well for the party not currently occupying the White House. Thus, not surprisingly, when asked for their generic party preference for president earlier this year (April 2007), Americans were much more likely to say they would rather see the “Democratic Party’s candidate” win the 2008 election rather than the “Republican Party’s candidate.” The specific Democratic presidential candidates have capitalized on that underlying advantage when matched up against the specific Republican candidates in trial heat questions for the 2008 election.

    McCain and Giuliani would appear to present the toughest match-ups for the Democrats at this point. Giuliani is the most positively rated candidate of either party, with a 57% favorable rating in the latest Gallup survey. And while McCain is not rated as favorably overall (47%), he is potent because he has impressive appeal across political parties — rated much more positively than negatively by independents, and only slightly more negatively than positively by Democrats. The other Republican contenders, Thompson and Romney, are still unknown to roughly half of Americans and thus are not as well positioned to compete against a well-known Democrat.

    Despite Giuliani’s broad popularity, the three Democrats are quite competitive with him in national test elections. (As noted, this is likely due to the underlying strength of the Democratic Party over the Republican Party as seen in the trial heats and other public opinion polling questions.) All three Democrats garner 50% of support among registered voters when pitted against Giuliani, with Giuliani getting 46% against Clinton and 45% against both Edwards and Obama. Again, none of these gaps in favor of the Democrats are statistically significant.

    Gallup test elections matching McCain against each of the three leading Democrats are too close to call, though Edwards’ 6-point lead just barely misses attaining statistical significance. Clinton has a 3-point edge over the Arizona senator and Obama has a 2-point advantage.

    Each of the Democratic candidates have statistically significant leads when up against Romney. Edwards leads Romney by 29 percentage points (61% to 32%), Obama leads him by 21 points (57% to 36%), and Clinton leads him by 13 points (53% to 40%).

    2008 Election Issues

    The situation in Iraq is overwhelmingly seen as the most important problem facing the country today, and is the top issue Americans at this point say they will take into account in their 2008 presidential vote. The degree to which Iraq will continue to dominate the election by next year is unknowable. A scenario in which U.S. troops have begun to withdraw from Iraq by 2008 is not out of the question, nor is a scenario in which the recent “surge” in troops is seen as a success. Each of these would significantly affect the presidential campaign.

    Terrorism will probably continue to be a strong underlying issue in the campaign — Americans may not talk or even think about it much, but concern can be easily activated, particularly if there is another major terrorist event. The economy is almost always a factor in an election. Consumer views of the economy became more positive in January, but are much more negative in the latest June poll, possibly because of gas prices. Healthcare is a rising concern among Americans and has been a major issue in past election campaigns. Immigration will likely remain a campaign issue unless and until Congress passes legislation to address the subject of illegal immigration. Immigration ranks second behind the war in Iraq in Gallup’s latest update on the most important problem facing the nation.

    Early General Election Polls as Predictors

    Since World War II, there have been only three elections that replaced a president who had served two four-year terms — in 1960, 1988, and 2000. (In 1952 and 1968, the incumbents were eligible for re-election after serving less than two full terms but declined to run.) Given the small number and differing outcomes of similar elections, the historical data do not offer much guidance as to what might happen in 2008. But the data do show that it has not been unusual for the party out of power to lead for much of the year before the “open-seat” election.

    George W. Bush held a statistically significant lead over Gore in almost every trial heat poll conducted in 1999. Republican Bush went on to win a disputed victory over Gore in the Electoral College to replace departing Democrat Bill Clinton.

    In 1987, Democratic frontrunner Hart led the elder George Bush for the first several months of the year. Bush took over the lead in late May after news of Hart’s extramarital affair derailed his campaign, and Bush polled better than Hart, Jackson, and Cuomo in late 1987. Bush relinquished the lead the following spring to his eventual challenger, Michael Dukakis, before moving back ahead after the Republican convention and eventually being elected by a comfortable margin to succeed Republican Ronald Reagan as president.

    In 1959, the various Democratic candidates led for much of the first part of the year, but the tide shifted in the Republicans’ favor for much of the latter part of that year’s presidential preference polling. Democrat John Kennedy won a razor-thin victory over Republican Richard Nixon the following year in the contest to succeed Republican Dwight Eisenhower.

Comments are closed.