John Hood at NRO suggests the ’08 race for the GOP nomination is a two person race between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson:
John McCain is out of it, Newt Gingrich will enter too late, and Rudy Giuliani is a longshot whose only chance is if the mainstream candidates competitive in the early states beat each other’s brains out.
I disagree with Hood and agree with John Podhoretz
Thompson is now leading him (Giuliani) in one poll having done absolutely nothing as yet. Romney is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire to some degree because he’s the only person putting resources in there. Thompson will probably have a very good summer, but at some point he’s going to have to say something substantive, and that may take him down a few notches. (For you Romneyites who think I’m talking down his strength in these two states, please note I’m not the only person saying this. Michael Barone, who knows everything about politics, said it this week too.)
Remember this—if Giuliani wins Florida and New Jersey and New York and California by February 5, he will have at least twice as many delegates in his pocket as anybody else. What this means is simple: He’s going to have to melt down on his own by January — the way McCain seems to have melted down — if he isn’t at least to be a factor in the nominating process.
Giuliani’s continued strength in the national polls, his strength in places like South Carolina (where he leads) as well as his relative strength against potential Democratic nominees make a strong case for Rudy being the GOP frontrunner at this time.
A Giuliani-Thompson ticket doesn’t sound all that bad.