Paul Broun is all but certain to face Jim Whitehead in an all-Republican 10th Congressional District runoff, but Democrat James Marlow isn’t ready to throw in the towel yet.
Broun led Marlow by 187 votes for the second spot in the July 17 runoff, with 97 percent of precincts reporting Wednesday. Whitehead leads with 43.5 percent, followed by Broun at 20.7 percent and Marlow by 20.3 percent.
“We launched the second phase of our campaign this morning, and we haven’t stopped,” Broun said. “We feel very strongly the results of this election are going to be upheld.”
An unknown number of overseas and military ballots still are uncounted, said Vicky Gavales, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state’s office. But those votes tend to favor Republicans and are unlikely to help Marlow make up the gap.
Here’s the prevailing rule on runoffs:
If the first and second place candidate are within 5% of each other, the second place candidate almost always wins. From 5% to 7%, it’s about a 50-50 shot for either. From 7% to 15%, the first place candidate wins 80% of the time. Above 15%, the first place candidate never loses. Whitehead has a 22.8% lead. Were he to lose, he’d be the first candidate going into a runoff in Georgia’s history to be that far ahead and lose. Never say never, but the odds are with Whitehead.