It Is Broun

Marlow isn’t going to be able to make it up.

Paul Broun is all but certain to face Jim Whitehead in an all-Republican 10th Congressional District runoff, but Democrat James Marlow isn’t ready to throw in the towel yet.

Broun led Marlow by 187 votes for the second spot in the July 17 runoff, with 97 percent of precincts reporting Wednesday. Whitehead leads with 43.5 percent, followed by Broun at 20.7 percent and Marlow by 20.3 percent.

“We launched the second phase of our campaign this morning, and we haven’t stopped,” Broun said. “We feel very strongly the results of this election are going to be upheld.”

An unknown number of overseas and military ballots still are uncounted, said Vicky Gavales, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state’s office. But those votes tend to favor Republicans and are unlikely to help Marlow make up the gap.

Here’s the prevailing rule on runoffs:

If the first and second place candidate are within 5% of each other, the second place candidate almost always wins. From 5% to 7%, it’s about a 50-50 shot for either. From 7% to 15%, the first place candidate wins 80% of the time. Above 15%, the first place candidate never loses. Whitehead has a 22.8% lead. Were he to lose, he’d be the first candidate going into a runoff in Georgia’s history to be that far ahead and lose. Never say never, but the odds are with Whitehead.

23 comments

  1. GOPeach says:

    This just in from PAUL BROUN FOR CONGRESS…

    The first round of the Special Election is over. What began as a race with ten candidates is now down to the top two.

    Now we are heading toward the Run Off on July 17th!

    First, I want to give thanks to God for His blessings and grace upon my campaign.

    Thank you from the depths of my soul for contributing to our success.

    Every prayer, every vote, every personal encouragement, every monetary contribution, and every effort to influence and motivate others is so much appreciated!

    Your loyalty and your confidence, especially during the trying times when I was under fire, will always be appreciated.

    I congratulate former state Senator Jim Whitehead on his showing. Jim is a good man with a good family. I do not consider him to be either a personal or political enemy, nor do I want my supporters to treat him in harsh, negative ways. Jim and I are simply competitors for the same political office.

    There are differences between the two of us on some of the major issues of our times. Elections are about discussing and debating ideas and making choices.

    I am not a professional politician supported by other professional politicians and Special Interest Groups, whether in Atlanta or Washington. What that means is that I am free to represent the people of the 10th District on the basis of principle, not politics-as-usual.

    In all sincerity, I believe that I am the more consistently conservative and constitutionalist candidate on these issues: Illegal Immigration, the Fair Tax, National Security and the War against Terrorism, Controlling Federal Spending, Protecting the Right to Life, Preserving America’s Religious Heritage and Religious Freedom.

    There is a big difference in a “generic conservative” like Mr. Whitehead who will merely cast the right vote and a strongly committed conservative leader who is willing to fight for what is right even when it may not be popular.

    It is my intention to keep this campaign centered on issues based on convictions, not on the basis of poll numbers.

    Again, I thank you for your support and your prayers. Please continue to help spiritually, politically, and financially as we work toward victory on July 17th. To volunteer or contribute please visit http://www.paulbroun.com.

  2. AlanR says:

    Thanks Erick. Its very interesting to see it presented that way. Not surprising, but I would have thought there would have been more wiggle room in the past.

  3. Federalist says:

    As a resident of the 10th district, I could not be more disappointed. We have Forrest Gump and Bubba running for the seat. Great…what is next for north georgia? Atleast there are not enough klan members to have given Greene a chance. Maybe I will move to Augusta, afterall…that is the only part of the 10th that whitehead will be representing.

  4. LymanHall says:

    So, if the first phase of the race was plaster Northeast Georgia with full color headshots, I can’t wait to see the “second phase!” glamour shots? cardboard cut-outs?

  5. Observer says:

    Paul Broun is a nut. This is his fourth campaign for Congress and he will lose this one also. The first round wasn’t focused on him. This round will be.

    I don’t think the Tenth District is ready for someone who wants to get rid of Social Security and Medicare, who practices medicine without a license, who isn’t his daddy, and who was raising money for this race while Charlie Norwood was still alive fighting for his life.

    I see Whitehead is already calling for debates with Broun. If I were Whitehead, I’d want a whole lot of people to meet Paul Broun.

  6. GOPeach says:

    This race will be:

    Saxby’s ensorsement vs. The People’s endorsement.

    Observser – you are wrong. Dr. Broun makes house calls to shut ins who can not afford health care. If the Whitehead campaign bashed him for this — they will be sorry…. it could back fire and be the worst upset in GA History.

    God blesses those who care for the poor and do not look to the government to do it. What a great role model!

  7. GOPeach says:

    Holly-

    You could be asking yourself, why is Peach who clearly lives in the 13th would campaign for the 10th CD?

    . I have to look at David Scott’s billboards everyday… it’s enough to want a refil of Phil Gingrey’s Prozac perscription….

    Listen – I am very sad for the Norwood family. But Charlie is with Jesus now and he has been elected to sit in an eternal seat high up in heavenly places.

    Saxby supports the North American Union and that scares the hell out of me. He endoreses Whitehead and that is something to look at very closely if you want to hear your grandkids speak English.

    Mexico and Canada both have socialized health care… I oppose!

    It’s time for BROUN – not Whitehead…
    Sorry to bump the status quo on Peach Pundit-
    once again… this thing is VERY serious-

    http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-1355300745194023737

    Maybe one day you guys will stop blowing me off and see that I am older than most of you and quite pretty. 🙂

  8. bowersville says:

    Peach, it is true that Paul Broun, Jr. practiced medicine without a license. At one of the forums I attended, Broun was asked the question from the audience “Is it true that you have practiced medicine without a license?” Broun’s answer was “Yes.”

    I will suggest to you that the reason Broun is making house calls is because he lost his hospital privileges. I can’t see any hospital or private practice assuming liability for someone who practices medicine without a license.

    Broun more than likely received a number of independent votes from Athens-Clarke County out of respect for his dad’s service. Once the info of Broun, Jr.’s disdain for Medicare and Social Security penetrates the district, that past support will quickly fade.

    The only thing that’s going to backfire is the support Broun had during the 1st round will quickly fade away. It could actually be worse for Broun than what DAMY46 has predicted.

  9. Holly says:

    I’d say that the people’s choice will be whoever gets the most votes on July 17th, no matter who’s endorsed whom. 🙂

  10. GOPeach says:

    Bowersville-

    Forgive me but saying something like:

    ” Once the info of Broun, Jr.’s disdain for Medicare and Social Security penetrates the district, that past support will quickly fade.” —

    sounds like the typical SPIN-JOB so very
    common among the current Elite Leadership.

    Using a word such as ” disdain” is spinning-

    Dr. Broun is not stupid~!

    He understands that the Social Security System as is — needs to be reformed!

    My grandkids will not have Social Security unless it is reformed….

    Medicare D is a HUGE Mess!

    Whitehead thinks Medicare covers seniors like a chior robe when in fact it is more like a G-string!

    When it comes to caring for the elderly – shut ins
    – Dr. Paul Broun is the expert. He is an example of what we should all be doing — caring for each other!!!!! Helping our neighbors!!! Not looking to Washington with our hand out.

    Whitehead will lead us to the North American Union – Socialized Medicine like Canada & Mexico. Just like Saxby!

    I rememeber when Johnny Isakson was on PBS with the CATO Institute explaining Social Security Reform. Then I was at the Civic Center when President Bush and his mom were explaining Social Security Reform.

    It’s not about endorsments — It’s about soundness and principle.

  11. GOPeach says:

    Holly-

    I pray the people in the 10th will not be so easily manipulated by endorsments that they fail to reseach each candidates’ platform with a fine tooth comb.

  12. Holly says:

    Wait a second! If you think it’s not okay to say things about things that are true about Dr. Broun, then it is certainly not okay to spout off things about Jim that are not true. Please know your facts before posting stuff like this.

    Never fear, though, I’ll set the record straight.

    Dr . Broun told a reporter from the AJC in the past that he favored eliminating Social Security. He has since said in many instances that he is a strict constitutionalist, and if it’s not in the Constitution, we shouldn’t be paying for it as taxpayers. The last time I checked, Social Security was not listed by the Founding Fathers as an unalienable right, so I have to figure that’s one of the things that Dr. Broun wants to cut out, particularly since he’s said so on the record.

    Jim does not favor eliminating the program, but he knows it’s in a mess as it is now. He favors allowing workers to set up voluntary personal accounts so they can pay directly into their own retirement, rather than paying for the generation before, which is what the current system does. For those who opt not to open personal accounts, they will get a partial benefit from the regular system. This affects workers born after 1974 only (i.e., me).

    Jim does not agree with Medicare Part D, and he wouldn’t have voted for it if he were in office at the time. However, he was not in office at the time.

    That said, I’m just not sure how you think Jim would support socialized medicine. Nothing is further from the truth.

    I understand supporting one candidate over the other. What I do not agree with and will continue to argue against is someone trying to make Jim’s positions the exact opposite of what they really are.

  13. bowersville says:

    Peach before you spout such nonsense about leading us into a North American Union and a candidates belief on a choir robe and Part D, etc., I wish you would do some research yourself.

    As to the use of the word disdain, how about this, Paul Broun Jr. said he was in favor of ELIMINATING Social Security and Medicare.

    Eliminated, nothing about reformed.

  14. Bill Simon says:

    Peachy says: “why is Peach who clearly lives in the 13th would campaign for the 10th CD?

    Answer: Because Peach always goes for the screwiest of candidates?

  15. DAMY46 says:

    If Paul would look at the ‘big picture’ he would withdraw (from this race) and support Whitehead…

    His name is out there…(the media and voters know him)

    He could enter a race for city mayor, county commisioner or local school board and win..

    Paul could win the next race ( if he played his cards right)..

    He is wasting his time, and money, trying to beat Whitehead…

    70% Jim
    30% Paul

  16. drjay says:

    holly made it sound like all broun w/drawing would do at this point is put marlow in the runoff–i guess i do not know if that is the case or not–but yeah otherwise that makes sense–hudgens (more or less) parlayed his congressional loss into a state senate win…

  17. bowersville says:

    drjay, it was like you stated before in your example of Massey, Jr.

    Massey didn’t officially withdraw, what he did once the primary results were certified, he conceded and asked his supporters to vote Barnes. Massey’s name was still on the ballot I believe. Truth of the matter as I heard it was the donors dried up.

    I understand Broun is bankrolling his own caimpaign. I guess it’s according to how much of his own money he’s willing to spend.

  18. Holly says:

    If Broun withdraws from the race, then it goes to Marlow.

    However, like Bowersville suggests, Broun could choose to concede and tell his supporters to vote for Jim on the 17th even though his name would still be on the ballot. We’re totally not expecting Dr. Broun to do that. But he could.

  19. Jace Walden says:

    I would have supported Whitehead in this race initially, but after his press release that condemned Paul Broun for being a fiscal conservative, Whitehead proved that he is just another psuedo-conservative, Bush boot-licking, big-government hack.

    I wish I lived in the 10th so I could vote for Broun.

Comments are closed.