Chum in the water

With only 187 votes separating Broun & Marlow, the partisan election lawyers must be circling like a hungry school of sharks. At stake is really nothing but bragging rights for the Democrats that the pendulum of public opinion is still swinging their direction.

Open questions:
1) what about the 4% of counties precincts still not reporting in. Where are they, what are they doing? Update: For those who don’t read comments, some counties consider all their absentees to be a precinct.
2) Who seemed to have the better absentee GOTV effort?
3) What the heck happened to Bill Greene?

20 comments

  1. drjay says:

    i don’t know for sure–but don’t a lot of counties call there absentee ballots “a precinct” those have to be counted by hand and scrutinized in a way the machines don’t, my guess is all the counties w/ one box out are working through “hanging chads” right now, verifying provisional ballots and the like–that usually does take an extra 24 to 48 hours.

  2. Mark Rountree says:

    Chris, it’s not counties not calling in results. It’s a technical reporting issue–some counties call absentee ballots a “precinct”, so sometimes looks like a precinct is still out when it’s not. However, absentees are usually included in the vote counts.

    It’s a reporting technical issue that the SOS should eventually clear up so that there is consistency in reporting.

  3. GabrielSterling says:

    It was not a good day to be a democrat in Georgia. they can’t even scrape enough votes together to make it to the runoff, Mike Jacobs switches.

    This GA dem party can not shoot straight. But the GOP should, as always, keep its powder dry.

  4. Nicki says:

    It was a fine day to be a Democrat. In fact, I’m proud of Democrats for even bothering to show up since it’s pretty evident that they are unlikely to win no matter how hard they try in a seat that was ridiculously, amazingly safe for Norwood.

    The numbers could’ve been better, but I’m not unpleased. I’ll be voting for Broun, assuming he’s the runner up.

  5. ChuckEaton says:

    “I’m proud of Democrats for even bothering to show up since it’s pretty evident that they are unlikely to win no matter how hard they try in a seat that was ridiculously, amazingly safe for Norwood. ”

    If the Fulton County Republicans had that attitude Karen Handel would never have been elected Chairman of the Commission during her special election.

    The 10th was/is a low turnout race and whatever candidate pushes his identifed supporters to the polls will ultimately win. I’m already hearing Columbia County, Whitehead’s home county, had a disproportionately high turnout; kudos to Whitehead.

  6. Each candidate turned out their base. Whitehead’s Columbia county had about 268 voters per precinct, he got 68% of those votes. Broun’s Oconee county had 208 voters per, he got 48% of them, and Marlow’s Clarke county had the highest at 289 voters per precinct, he got 55% of these votes.

    I’m disappointed at the high number of votes for the other two Democrats, their vanity in running surely cost Marlow at least 200 votes, particularly since Denise Freeman’s name came first on the ballot among Democrats.

    And secondly, I’m surprised that Broun got so many consolidated votes as the leading Republican challenger to Whitehead. Surely at least 200 of those votes in the Athens area come from his namesake (who everyone liked) and the fact that they all drive on the Paul Broun loop every day of the year.

    But such is life.

  7. drjay says:

    it is probably impossible to truly gauge all the what if’s in this race and make any real assessment aboutit–special’s are quirky kind of elections by their nature and for every what if this candidate had run or dropped out or whatever there has to be taken into acct. the chance a good number of freeman voters (for instance) may have just not voted at all. or what if the weather had been better or worse yesterday, what if there was not also a special going on for the seat whitehead had been holding on the same ballot in his district, what if some of the other folks like holley or fleming had stayed in…this kind of stuff can go on ad nauseum.

  8. CHelf says:

    Considering that a certain portion of that vote was also inspired by another election, those counties, namely those near Augusta, have a higher vote turnout than would have been expected for just this seat. Since that election is decided, there is less motivation to turn out for the runoff. I wonder what the totals would have been had the 24th not been on the ballot? Would it have made little or major significance?

  9. drjay says:

    i know that in close races the runoff sometimes seems to go in the 2nd place guys favor like coverdell in 92–but considering the gap between 1st and 2nd, even in this weird sort of race would it not be unfreakingprecedented for the guy w/ 20% to have any chance against the guy that was only a few points from winning outright?

  10. Observer says:

    From what I understand, congrats also go to the Norwood operation. They may be working on team Whitehead, but it’s the same ole operation Norwood always had. Whitehead will do well with this group. That’s probably what gives me so much confidence that he will be a good congressman.

  11. MidGaDawg says:

    “would it not be unfreakingprecedented for the guy w/ 20% to have any chance against the guy that was only a few points from winning outright?”

    I would think so. Especially in this case. In a hypothetical race where, say, Broun were a hardcore moderate, it seems like he might pick up enough Marlow votes to make it a fight. But in this case, people like Nicki notwithstanding, I think chrisishardcore is right about Marlow’s people, meaning Whitehead *should* win easily again.

  12. bowersville says:

    Joel McElhannon of the Whitehead campaign is quoting a ’96 statement in which Broun advocated the elimination of social security & medicare, wants to eliminate federal spending for education and doesn’t support disaster relief as a function of the federal government.

    Source: AJC P/I

    I don’t see how any democrat could support Broun on that position.

  13. Observer says:

    The problem for Broun is that all negatives on Whitehead have been used, while he has yet to be looked at hard. Anything he says about Whitehead will likely be old news unable to affect voters. Yet, I don’t believe the negatives on Broun have yet to penetrate the district. Whitehead has a lot to use.

    Speaking of this, I bet Marlow now wishes he hadn’t focused his attacks on Whitehead. I said in earlier posts that the task he and all non-Whitehead candidates faced was making the runoff. That would have meant attacking Broun.

  14. heyandrew says:

    I have a question for the Dem Party Chairs of the 10th District:

    How many of them ran voter registration campaigns, between the time the election was announced and the date of registration?

    I would very interested to hear their responses.

  15. bowersville says:

    I believe you are correct Observer. Can you imagine the knock out blow to Broun had Marlow mentioned Broun’s previous positions on SS & MC?

    Surely Marlow & Co. knew this about Broun didn’t they? Heck, they had to know with Marlow being a Yahoo executive, it’s too easy to punch search.

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