In 02, Sonny got 52%, this year he got 62%, but I don’t think voters really viewed this as a partisan race, as I’ve made the case.

Other races:
Lt Gov, R’s won 55-40 in 2002, but D’s narrowed the gap, this time in ’06 it was only 51-42.

Wait a second, you mean in the most Republican part of Mike’s district, Casey Cagle actually did 4 points worse than Steve Stancil? How’d that happen, I thought all those new “homeowners” were big Republicans?

Attorney General: Thurbert actually lost here in ’02, 53-47, but this time he turned it around winning 56-44. Sounds like a positive Republican trend to me, NOT.

Ag Commissioner: Irvin lost here 48-46 in 2002, in 2006 he won 50-41. Say what?

Labor Commissioner, Thurmond got blown out in ’02 in Montgomery, losing 53-40, but in 2006 he nearly reversed the margin winning 51-40.

Now to those Public Service commission races, which are good for partisan purposes because voters know so little about the candidates that they just vote their partisan instincts.

Well, the two Democratic PSC candidates got 35 and 34 in 2002, the GOP candidates got 53 and 64. So the average from ’02 was 58-35. In 2006, the Dems here got 40 and 35, for an average of 38 and the GOP got 51 and 56 for an average of 54. So this time, the GOP averaged a 54-38 margin, which is a DEMOCRATIC trend of +7 points.

So yeah, it seems like the Northern part of Mike’s district including your beloved Cross Keys isn’t getting any more Republican, and the last time I checked Toco Hills isn’t turning into some sort of Republican bastion either.

Mike used to call me on the phone all the time and whine about how “is my district trending Republican” and I would look at these types of numbers (and also remember how Republican it used to be when I was growing up there) and go Mike you are crazy.

Obviously, Mike wanted the answer to be yes because he was looking for an excuse to switch, and with you and his new Republican friends he found someone who was willing to say yes mike, it is trending, but unfortunately for Mike the numbers do not indicate that that is the case, unless you only look at one race for Sonny Perdue. The rest of the evidence points to a solid Democratic trend district wide and in specific precincts.

Hey, here’s hoping that your direct mail for Mike is as solid as your political analysis, which is to say not very good.

Sonny did a lot better here than he did in 2002, but c’mon the confederate flag changing candidate of ’02 is not the same Sonny that voters like today. He went from getting 38% here in ’02 to 47% in ’06, but the district still voted 53% against the Republican, splitting their votes between a weak Democratic candidate and an unknown libertarian.

So what about other races? Taylor carried this precinct 55-41 in 2002. Now keep in mind that Taylor was romping to re-election against an unknown candidate while Martin lost the state by 10 points. Cagle, who is a far superior candidate compared to Steve Stancil, did exactly the same as Stancil did. In a precinct that is really trending Republican, wouldn’t you at least expect the dream candidate (ie Cagle) to do better than a dud (Stancil) and oh yeah, to win which Cagle didn’t even come close to doing?

Whoops, maybe that’s because this precinct is not trending Republican. Here are some more comparisons: Baker only got 59% here in 2002 but got 65% this year. Drexinger actually did a percentage point better in 2006 than our insurance commissioner candidate from last time.

Let’s do a straight apples to apples in PSC races. In 2002, when we also had 2 races up, the Democratic candidates (who were incumbents) won 50.3-49.7 and lost 47.28 to 47.63.

But last year in 2006 both Democratic candidates for PSC beat their opponents by at least 4 points. The incumbent won by over 10 points and the challenger won by 4%.

So as you can see, while the rest of Georgia has started shifting their votes to Republicans in things like the PSC races, Cross Keys precinct is giving Democratic candidates a higher margin and Republican candidates a much lower margin, in fact a lot of voters shifted their votes to the libertarians which took a big bite out of the (R) votes but didn’t seem to hurt the D’s at all.

I hope you are advising Mike now that he is a Republican because you have no idea what you are talking about. Let’s just pick one small bit: the PSC races. First of all, the fact that all of Georgia now has Republican PSC’s and yet this district votes for Democrats certainly doesn’t make it look like it is some sort of Republican trending district. It is doing the exact opposite of what the state has been doing (getting more Republican, the district/precinct more democratic).

There were two races for PSC on the ballot in November, one had an incumbent D and one had an incumbent R. The Democrat carried the Cross Keys precinct in both cases, even Dawn Randolph won it. The reason Burgess did 3 points better than Randolph is not because he’s from DeKalb County, it’s because he was the incumbent. In fact, it would be better written that Wise did 3 points better than Eaton because he was the incumbent in that race.

95% of the public don’t know who their public service commissioners are, and as a political consultant you should know that. The average resident of House District 80 (and by average I would wager 80%+) do not know who David Burgess is or that he is from DeKalb County.

Two points is a straight line…3 points would be a trend.

Blackmalevoters will be accepting those $4,000 cans of caviar and $600 bottles of champagne on behalf of Mike Jacobs.

We’ve got hoes to keep happy after all.

I find it amusing that you find “magical” trends. Yes, I guess they might seem magical if one doesn’t understand them.

That’s quite a bamboozle you have done there, comparing apples to oranges, district numbers to precinct numbers.

First you write “in 2006, Perdue BARELY carried this district.” Yes. But what you forgot to note is that Perdue lost this district in 2002. That’s called a trend.

then you write, “Martin beat Cagle, 54.4% to 41.6%. Yes, but again you fail to note that the Republican vote for Lt. Governor has always lost the district. I’m not sure how you make your case that Cagle is a “moderate”, either. Simply by beating Ralph Reed in the primary? Interesting and telling perspective to see from you.

You go on to write “Republicans have long preferred to look at Public Service Commission races to detect any underlying trend.” (Only partially true. There are five GOP Public Service Commissioners and zero Democrats…sounds like an interesting statewide trend!)

You then pointed out Burgess took the district 52-41%…

However, what you didn’t point out is that David Burgess is FROM DeKalb County, and was elevated into the position by the DeKalb political crowd in the first place. So his numbers were stronger than normal. That’s what is called a “base”.

I could go on. But the main point you are missing is the word trend. And as the southside of the district changes, particularly the precincts right along the border of I -85, so shall the voting trends change.

In 2004 Kerry got 51.5% and Bush got 47.8% of the vote in Cross Keys.

In 2006, Perdue BARELY carried this district, even though he did 4% better in DeKalb county overall than Bush did.

In fact, Perdue carried Cross Keys 47.52% to 45.43% for Taylor. More people voted against Perdue than for him here.

What about other races? Martin beat Cagle 54.4% to 41.6%. So let me get this straight, Cagle – a moderate with no baggage gets 6% fewer votes than Bush in a district that is allegedly swinging heavily towards Republicans and moderate Republicans no less?

Other notable Republicans who lost this district: Handel (Buckner beat her 49-46) and McGuire (Baker won 65-35).

Now, Oxendine and Kathy Cox won this precinct, but not with anything near the margins they enjoyed statewide, Ox 58-42 and Cox 50-42.

Republicans have long preferred to look at Public Service Commission races to detect any underlying trend. So let’s go. Of course incumbent David Burgess carried this precinct 52-41, but what about incumbent Republican Stan Wise? Whoops, he actually lost here 49.7 to 44.6.

So you mean to tell me that not even an incumbent Republican public service commissioner is doing as well as Bush did here only 2 years prior? And to compare apples to apples, did you know that Bobby Baker won this precinct 54-42?

Tell me Mark, has all of the gentrification only started post 2006 general election. Because by the looks of this district and the rest of North DeKalb for that matter things are still getting more Democratic.

I think it is ironic that these guys think the Democrats are out of touch because we are social liberals and yet they are welcoming a guy to their party who defined himself on being a social liberal.

I have a hard time believing that any potential Democratic replacement for Mike in District 80 would have anything less than a stellar record on equality issues. In District 80, a Democrat’s positions on social issues and their association with a party that is “out of touch with mainstream Georgians” will be an asset, Mike’s willingness to join up with the opposing party will be a liability.

I guess my overall point could be summed up thusly: the Republicans on here think they are getting some fed up moderate/conservative to switch parties giving yet another indictment of the liberal Democrats.

In actuality they are getting a confused liberal with a bruised ego who just 4 years ago authored a website called “Brian Kemp Watch” whose only loyalty is to himself. I didn’t think Mike Jacobs could make himself into more of a footnote in this era of Georgia politics but today he did it.