Representative Mike Jacobs has set up a blog and used it to announce he is now part of the Grand Old Party.
s you know, I have always strived to represent all of my constituents, Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike, to the best of my ability. You have a right to know that the people elected to represent you, regardless of whether you voted for them, are listening and care what you have to say.That hasn’t changed, nor will it. What has changed is that my strong belief in fiscal responsibility and restraint – a belief that the vast majority of my constituents share – is not a good fit within the Democratic Caucus in the House of Representatives.
Welcome aboard Mike.
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Mark, when I said district in my above post I really meant precinct. All of those numbers are just from the Cross Keys precinct, which you picked out as a trending republican precinct/area.
I hope you are advising Mike now that he is a Republican because you have no idea what you are talking about. Let’s just pick one small bit: the PSC races. First of all, the fact that all of Georgia now has Republican PSC’s and yet this district votes for Democrats certainly doesn’t make it look like it is some sort of Republican trending district. It is doing the exact opposite of what the state has been doing (getting more Republican, the district/precinct more democratic).
There were two races for PSC on the ballot in November, one had an incumbent D and one had an incumbent R. The Democrat carried the Cross Keys precinct in both cases, even Dawn Randolph won it. The reason Burgess did 3 points better than Randolph is not because he’s from DeKalb County, it’s because he was the incumbent. In fact, it would be better written that Wise did 3 points better than Eaton because he was the incumbent in that race.
95% of the public don’t know who their public service commissioners are, and as a political consultant you should know that. The average resident of House District 80 (and by average I would wager 80%+) do not know who David Burgess is or that he is from DeKalb County.
And hey, Mark, you want to talk trends and compare apples to apples in the Cross Keys precinct, let’s go.
Sonny did a lot better here than he did in 2002, but c’mon the confederate flag changing candidate of ‘02 is not the same Sonny that voters like today. He went from getting 38% here in ‘02 to 47% in ‘06, but the district still voted 53% against the Republican, splitting their votes between a weak Democratic candidate and an unknown libertarian.
So what about other races? Taylor carried this precinct 55-41 in 2002. Now keep in mind that Taylor was romping to re-election against an unknown candidate while Martin lost the state by 10 points. Cagle, who is a far superior candidate compared to Steve Stancil, did exactly the same as Stancil did. In a precinct that is really trending Republican, wouldn’t you at least expect the dream candidate (ie Cagle) to do better than a dud (Stancil) and oh yeah, to win which Cagle didn’t even come close to doing?
Whoops, maybe that’s because this precinct is not trending Republican. Here are some more comparisons: Baker only got 59% here in 2002 but got 65% this year. Drexinger actually did a percentage point better in 2006 than our insurance commissioner candidate from last time.
Let’s do a straight apples to apples in PSC races. In 2002, when we also had 2 races up, the Democratic candidates (who were incumbents) won 50.3-49.7 and lost 47.28 to 47.63.
But last year in 2006 both Democratic candidates for PSC beat their opponents by at least 4 points. The incumbent won by over 10 points and the challenger won by 4%.
So as you can see, while the rest of Georgia has started shifting their votes to Republicans in things like the PSC races, Cross Keys precinct is giving Democratic candidates a higher margin and Republican candidates a much lower margin, in fact a lot of voters shifted their votes to the libertarians which took a big bite out of the (R) votes but didn’t seem to hurt the D’s at all.
Now that’s why I love Peach Pundit. Where else can you see a Repub political consultant and a Demo political consultant get in a pissing contest? Gotta love PP!
Mark, now let’s look at the area of Mike’s district that is the most Republican, the Montgomery precinct and see how things have changed from 2002.
In 02, Sonny got 52%, this year he got 62%, but I don’t think voters really viewed this as a partisan race, as I’ve made the case.
Other races:
Lt Gov, R’s won 55-40 in 2002, but D’s narrowed the gap, this time in ‘06 it was only 51-42.
Wait a second, you mean in the most Republican part of Mike’s district, Casey Cagle actually did 4 points worse than Steve Stancil? How’d that happen, I thought all those new “homeowners” were big Republicans?
Attorney General: Thurbert actually lost here in ‘02, 53-47, but this time he turned it around winning 56-44. Sounds like a positive Republican trend to me, NOT.
Ag Commissioner: Irvin lost here 48-46 in 2002, in 2006 he won 50-41. Say what?
Labor Commissioner, Thurmond got blown out in ‘02 in Montgomery, losing 53-40, but in 2006 he nearly reversed the margin winning 51-40.
Now to those Public Service commission races, which are good for partisan purposes because voters know so little about the candidates that they just vote their partisan instincts.
Well, the two Democratic PSC candidates got 35 and 34 in 2002, the GOP candidates got 53 and 64. So the average from ‘02 was 58-35. In 2006, the Dems here got 40 and 35, for an average of 38 and the GOP got 51 and 56 for an average of 54. So this time, the GOP averaged a 54-38 margin, which is a DEMOCRATIC trend of +7 points.
So yeah, it seems like the Northern part of Mike’s district including your beloved Cross Keys isn’t getting any more Republican, and the last time I checked Toco Hills isn’t turning into some sort of Republican bastion either.
Mike used to call me on the phone all the time and whine about how “is my district trending Republican” and I would look at these types of numbers (and also remember how Republican it used to be when I was growing up there) and go Mike you are crazy.
Obviously, Mike wanted the answer to be yes because he was looking for an excuse to switch, and with you and his new Republican friends he found someone who was willing to say yes mike, it is trending, but unfortunately for Mike the numbers do not indicate that that is the case, unless you only look at one race for Sonny Perdue. The rest of the evidence points to a solid Democratic trend district wide and in specific precincts.
Hey, here’s hoping that your direct mail for Mike is as solid as your political analysis, which is to say not very good.
Touche roc.
The district is trending slightly Republican but in a Presidential year that Montclair precinct will give 800+ votes to a Democrat and 200- to a Republican. It might not matter if Jacobs wins Cross Keys and all the Republican precincts at even a 60% + margin because the Democrat precincts are more solidly Democrat. If the Dems find a moderate family woman it might be trouble. A solid conservative who is not over the top on abortion has a better shot at igniting the loyal Republican base in the primary and general.
rightofcenter: who is the Demo political consultant?
Cross Keys is also one of the smallest precincts and not a good example for trends. Brookhaven and Briarwood would be better to look at for trends.
Will: I think he presumes HardCore is a political consultant. He might be.
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