Jonathan Martin on Rudy, Fred, and the Rest

My friend Jonathan Martin makes a good point about Glenn Richardson’s endorsement of Rudy.

compare Rudy’s six legislators to what supporters of Fred Thompson claim in the Peach State — 33 state reps and senators. Yes, he’s from next door and yes signing onto a draft effort is different than endorsing a full-fledged candidacy, but such a lopsided ratio between the national frontrunner and a guy who is not even in the race is telling. Oh, and to be fair, it’s not just Rudy. Thompson’s possible legislative support in Georgia blows away what Romney and McCain have there, too.

36 comments

  1. Federalist says:

    I am telling you again, as soon as FT announces his candidacy…his support will fall apart. Everybody wants him to run, including myself (and I am a Dem), but once the spot light is on FT I think he will get the Rudy treatment. There are so many issues that he is not on the record about as well, and the responses will kill a lot of his support.

  2. Bull Moose says:

    I agree with Federalist. As soon as FDT announces the media will turn against him and point out how conservatives are now upset to find out that FDT is not as conservative as they thought. Then the media will go on to its new pet rock – NEWT. To which they will build up only to destroy in the fall…

    Rudy’s numbers go down the more he campaigns and the more people find out about his record.

  3. Bull Moose says:

    How about these name ID Numbers (according to Gallup). Fred Thompson is starting way too late to make up the ground he needs.

    Hillary Clinton – 98%
    Rudy Giuliani – 86%
    John Edwards – 81%
    John McCain – 80%
    Barack Obama – 75%
    Mitt Romney – 46%
    Fred Thompson – 38%

  4. kendrial says:

    I feel like you just spent the last 15 min. finding a poll that had Fred at the bottom of the list. And the best you could come up with was name id. Lame.

  5. GabrielSterling says:

    Well look at who is behind Fred Thompson in Georgia. The two leaders are Rules Committee Chairman Earl Ehrhart and Senate President Pro Tem eric Johnson. These are two men who have been fighting to build our majority since the 80’s.

    Here’s the rest who’ve gone on record:
    Federal Officials:
    Former US Senator Mack & Leslie Mattingly

    State Senators
    Sen. Tommie Williams, Majority Leader
    Sen. Chip Rogers
    Sen. David Shafer
    Sen. Don Thomas
    Sen. Jack Murphy
    Sen. John Douglas
    Sen. Cecil Staton
    Sen. Preston Smith
    Sen. Greg Goggans
    Sen. Lee Hawkins
    Sen. Bill Heath
    Sen. Bill Hamrick
    Sen. Jeff Chapman
    Sen. Don Thomas
    Fmr. Sen. Brian Kemp

    State Representatives
    Rep. Ron Stephens
    Rep. Ron Forster
    Rep. Buddy Carter
    Rep. Burke Day
    Rep. Jim Cole
    Rep. Doug Collins
    Rep. Mark Butler
    Rep. Clay Cox
    Rep. Jay Neal
    Rep. Sean Jerguson
    Rep. Tom Dickson
    Rep. Calvin Hill
    Rep. James Mills
    Rep. Doug Holt
    Rep. John Meadows
    Rep. Tom Knox
    Rep. John Heard
    Rep. Tom Graves
    Rep. Donna Sheldon
    Rep. Melvin Everson
    Rep. Mark Hamilton
    Fmr. Republican Leader Bob Irvin
    Fmr. Rep. Chuck Harper
    Fmr. Rep. Barbara Bunn
    Fmr. Rep. Ted Waddle

    Local Officials
    Commissioner Esther Fleming (Newton)
    Commissioner Pat Farrell (Chatham)
    Commissioner Jerry Brigham (Augusta-Richmond)
    Councilwoman Liz Hausmann (Johns Creek)
    Solicitor General David Cannon, Jr. (Cherokee County)
    Sheriff Steve Cronic (Hall County)
    County Executive Ben Brandon (Dade County)

    And more elected officials and party activists are signing on everyday.

    Fred Dalton Thompson is a candidate that can truly rebuild the Reagan coalition and he has the ability to connect with voters unlike any of our other potential candidates.

    We shouldn’t make our decision by poll numbers. Once Sen. Thompson announces, I think we all know there will be spike for him in the polls. Then after 2-4 weeks, the numbers will likely stabilize.

    My guess is it will freeze some of the money that might have gone to the top three for a little while. Then 1 of the current top three will likely get pushed to the 2nd tier, likely McCain, who is lagging in the polls and in the money race.

    Then we get to see an interesting three way race with Thompson, Rudy and Romney.

    With the way the February 5th primaries are set, my money would go with Thompson to pull it out.

  6. drjay says:

    that poll is on the front page of politcalwire–it is not really a hidden 15 minute type of find–and it’s not inconsequential either…

  7. Tommy_a2b says:

    Thought everyone may like an update. The list is longer now. This is strickly the current GA Legislators

    State Senators
    Sen. Eric Johnson, President Pro Tempore
    Sen. Tommie Williams, Majority Leader
    Sen. Chip Rogers
    Sen. David Shafer
    Sen. Don Thomas
    Sen. Jack Murphy
    Sen. John Douglas
    Sen. Cecil Staton
    Sen. Preston Smith
    Sen. Greg Goggans
    Sen. Lee Hawkins
    Sen. Bill Heath
    Sen. Bill Hamrick
    Sen. Don Thomas
    Sen. Jeff Chapman

    State Representatives
    Rep. Earl Ehrhart
    Rep. Ron Stephens
    Rep. Ron Forster
    Rep. Buddy Carter
    Rep. Burke Day
    Rep. Jim Cole
    Rep. Doug Collins
    Rep. Mark Butler
    Rep. Clay Cox
    Rep. Jay Neal
    Rep. Sean Jerguson
    Rep. Tom Dickson
    Rep. Calvin Hill
    Rep. James Mills
    Rep. Doug Holt
    Rep. John Meadows
    Rep. Tom Knox
    Rep. John Heard
    Rep. Tom Graves
    Rep. Donna Sheldon
    Rep. Melvin Everson
    Rep. Mark Hamilton

  8. GabrielSterling says:

    That’s 44 current elected Republicans on record for Thompson. With an additional 5 former elected officials.

  9. Bull Moose says:

    Oh dear, it’s the Thompson people… Listen, when Reagan ran, he didn’t run around and try and build the “Goldwater Coalition”. He built a campaign around principles, ideology, and a vision.

    And Gabe, McCain is a leading candidate for President. He has higher name ID, strong fundraising, the best political organization in the country, and is our best shot to win the Presidency in 2008.

    Let’s all just step back from the computer a bit… and let the rheotric die down a bit… It’s getting thick, and yes, I realize I started it!

  10. Tommy_a2b says:

    Bull, other than you and Alec does McCain have a GA structure?

    On another point can you think of another Candidate who has so much to loose financially by running? Sen Fred Thompson would not get in this thing if he did not think he would win it all.

  11. CobbGOPer says:

    I wonder if Fred’s not procrastinating because he’s courting Giuliani or Romney for a promise to be their VP nominee should they pull out enough votes for the nomination….

    Would certainly give them a boost in the South.

  12. GabrielSterling says:

    Bull:

    You misunderstand. I know that McCain is a leading candidate, in this current environment. The point of my post is that when Fred Thompson gets in the race in June/July, that will change the environment.

    I don’t think that four top tier guys are sustainable. Of the three current top tier guys, McCain, Rudy and Romney, McCain is the most likely to be squeezed out of the top tier.

    Romney has the money to run a high end campaign through the February 5 Primaries and is showing strength in NH and Iowa. Rudy is still leading the national polls and has solid financing. McCain has the highest negatives of any GOP contender, by his own admission last quarter fundraising was weak and his burn rate stays high.

    This isn’y meant as an attack on Sen. McCain, who I have a great deal of personal respect for, it is my opinion of the political dynamic in play.

    As always, take it on face value that I am an unabashed Fred Thompson supporter, but it doesn’t mean my analysis isn’t right.

  13. Chris says:

    Name ID doesn’t factor in favorable vs unfavorable. Everyone know who Hillary is, but 50% +- 1% hate her guts and would never vote for her.

    Sorry to say this BM, but I think McCain will be the one bumped to the second tier. Romney has the money and Rudy has the GWOT folks.

  14. AlanR says:

    The mystery is how someone who is so at odds with conservatives on social issues gets any support at all. Its a tribute to Guiliani’s record and his straightforwardness that conservatives give him so much support.

    Thompson isn’t running a traditional campaign from the past. He is doing things that are new and innovative and will be the way of the future. The late start, lack of organization are far less important in Thompson’s overall plan.

    We’ll see how it works.

    Full disclosure: Count me for Fred.

  15. BrianDart says:

    McCain has some major problems in his campaign. His SC campaign is not doing well. He must get 2nd in NH and win SC to have a shot.

    Rudy’s negatives will start to come out once the campaign really starts.

    Romney will not win in the south and in the plains. The religion issue is tough.

    Fred is our best option. He has a good record, and will run for the right reasons. He is a winner.

    I went to NH in 2000. I worked with the McCain campaign. Sen. McCain is a strong leader and sticks to his principals, but he does not move others to follow those principals with him. His best quality is his bluntness, but that gets old.

    Thompson has the star power and ability to win this thing. As a soldier in the party, I want a winner who best matches my personal values. I will work hard for Thompson. I will give money to Thompson. I will get others to do the same. I will do this because I believe Fred Thompson is the right man to be our President.

  16. HungarianAngel says:

    McCain is on his way down. He has been losing support for some time, and in this situation, once you start going down, it’s hard to recover. Giuliani is also sliding down the slippery slope, losing nearly 25 points in the last two months. This clearly shows, that although a long way out from the election, the voters aren’t happy with the choices thus far. (Most of Giuliani’s lost support has gone to the “don’t know” catagory.)

    Fred Thompson? I don’t know. As accurately mentioned, he is getting support from people who don’t really know his firm position on many issues. His record is limited and mirrors most of the Senate.

    Nonetheless, his support base indicates that a viable conservative candidate is necessary. Right now, the majority of conservatives don’t seem to think we have one.

    It’s a shame this race isn’t about ideas and solutions, but rather name id and money.

    Who can most convincingly say what the American people want to hear?

    I guess it’s naive to think it was ever really different.

    Run Fred Run, and talk while you run.

  17. Bull Moose says:

    I don’t know where Mr. Dart gets his political news, but John McCain has the best political organization by a mile in South Carolina. He is currently leading by between 5-13 points in South Carolina. Any candidate would love to be in John McCain’s position in South Carolina.

    Unlike the other candidates, campaigns, and draft efforts, McCain is trending up whereas everyone else is trending down.

    You folks are silly, at least Gabe has offered some pretty good insights, even though I disagree. Mr. Dart is just making stuff up that isn’t grounded in fact.

  18. Bull Moose says:

    Hungarian Angel, gosh, McCain is on his way up my friend. Day after day, the McCain campaign grows both in Georgia, and around this country.

  19. Mark Rountree says:

    Bull, I am beginning to see how you got the first half of your sign in name…

    McCain is collapsing, and probably has already collapsed.

    This isn’t to say I dislike McCain. Contrary to most conservatives, I don’t (dislike). But the theme of dead man walking just keeps playing… reminds me of a George Romero film where the zombies simply don’t know know their status.

    As you have written, McCain and Fred T have some things in common.

  20. Mark Rountree says:

    truncated post there…lol

    Fred Thompson would be the upstart this time, not McCain. Fred is at the right place at the right time. But a difference is that Thompson is a solid conservative. I cannot say that about McCain, given his interest in opposing tax cuts.

  21. HungarianAngel says:

    Garsh Micky, but figures are-
    McCain support-
    Jan 07 23%
    Feb 07 19%
    Mar 07 20%
    Apr 07 16%
    May 07 17%

    And he has said that the bottom dropped out of his fundraising this last quarter.

    No, none of this is unequivacable anything. All hypothetical nonsense, but in politics, what isn’t?

    But interesting, nonetheless.

  22. Mark Rountree says:

    Hungarian, you are a true blogger in every sense of the word. Obviously the Figures, facts & all.

    But…

    How is McCain doing in Tombstone, Arizona?

  23. Icarus says:

    Bull,

    Please remember when you read this that no one other than Demonbeck posted “Free Bull Moose” more than myself.

    I think your loyalty to McCain is blinding you to the reality that the McCain campaign is in. I think Gabriel’s analysis above is on the mark.

    You constantly assert that McCain is the only “true conservative” or “principled conservative” in the race. McCain openly thumbed his nose at CPAC. His appearance at Liberty University cost him support with the indys that used to think he was the Maverick willing to stand up to soical conservatives.

    McCains’s willingness to play Maverick for headlines has cost him most of his friends in the Senate. He doesn’t even have solid support in Arizona, where Sherrif Joe Arpaio is backing Romney.

    While McCain is an honorable man, he’s spend a lot of political career looking out for himself at the expense of others. Things like that come back to bite you in politics, and he’s the first major candidate to be squeezed out.

    Just my $.02. Your mileage may vary.

  24. dingleberry says:

    If getting yourself captured makes you a war hero, then John McCain is a war hero.

    Just like Jessica Lynch! John and Jessica should run on a ticket together!

    McCain is finished. This race is over…and the winner is: Tommy Thompson.

  25. whitemalevoters says:

    Holly,

    We are glad you asked! As white male voters, we agree with Dingleberry. We would definitely support the McCain/Lynch ticket!

    White male voters would salivate at the prospect of electing a male and a female who were so heroic that they got captured!

    White male voters everywhere endorse the McCain/Lynch Ticket! Because sometimes, you have to get caught to called a hero!

  26. Bill Simon says:

    Whitemalevoters and GOPeach have remarkable similarities in their blogging style…every (!) sentence (!) ends (!) in (!) an (!) exclamation (!) mark (!).

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