Strategic Vision’s Latest

Is here. Saxby beats Vernon 57 to 29. 79% of Republicans reject the idea that Bush is a Reagan Republican. Then there are these:

Rudy Giuliani 23%
John McCain 17%
Fred Thompson 12%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Mitt Romney 5%

and

Hillary Clinton 25%
Barack Obama 22%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 4%
Wesley Clark 3%
Joseph Biden 3%

Wow. Fred’s in third and he’s not even running. Romney is at 5% despite so many heavy hitters backing him. They might just want to jump to Fred’s ship.

12 comments

  1. Icarus says:

    22% Between Fred Thompson and Newt, or as I like to say, 22% for “None of the Above”, since neither is yet a candidate.

    I have to think that virtually all of Newt’s support would go to Thompson, but not all of Thompson’s support would go to Newt.

    Thompson’s baggage will fit in the overhead compartment. Newt is still wishing Airbus hadn’t cancelled the freighter version of the A380.

    Thompson, from what I know now, would be my first choice for President. My concern, however, is that I know he can win GA, SC, and TN, but can he put states into play that Rudy can, or at least defend those that Bush took. (And I don’t think anyone’s defending OH this cycle, so we need one blue pick up).

    Give me a poll showing Thompson beating Hillary in WI, MN, PA, or OH, and I’m sold.

    As for the GA crowd backing Romney, they’re usually stubborn when right, and they’re stubborn when they’re wrong. I think it’s a lot more likely that McCain’s folks will jump to Thompson first.

  2. Icarus says:

    I’m having a hard time seeing Rudy or McCain being anyone’s V.P.

    I like Steele, but with Thompson’s relatively short electoral resume, I don’t think a former Lt.Gov is the proper balance.

    I also don’t think it will be anyone from the South, as that’s not where we would need the electoral help.

    I was a little intrigued by the idea of a Thompson-Thompson ticket that someone floated on RedState about a week ago, but I think the Thompson Twins would have some kind of trademark issue with that.

    But, before we spend too much time on Thompson’s V.P., we probably need to get him beyond flavor of the week status, or at least get him to admit he’s a candidate.

  3. Mark Rountree says:

    The Gwinnett GOP sponsored a delegate poll at the county convention three weeks ago. Fred Thompson’s name was added to the ballot at the last minute.

    Thompson carried 50% of all delegate votes in anonymous voting, beating the ten or so other candidates on the ballot combined– all without a single organizer even in the building.

    When the results were announced, people just looked around at eachother with wide eyes and mouths — as if we all at an AA meeting at the same time and the whole rest town showed up, too.

    It said something big, something everyone who reads this board is sensing.

    Our two main candidates are uncomfortably politicallly flawed, and it’s time we’re Mature enough to admit it.

    I think there is a growing possibility that a McCain or Guiliani nomination will split the GOP, leading to a third-party candidate of some kind. There’s just no way that conservatives and the GOP (as we have known it since the days of Reagan) hold still if Guiliani nominated. Suing gun makers, supporting taxpayer-paid abortions, and on and on.

    To do it, Fred Thompson’s got to thread the eye of a small needle: he must time it right because any poll movement he gets probably would show up only in the last two weeks before the primaries begin, when unpaid regular-joe conservative voters start to look closer.

    I say, Fred get in the race. Save us from the consultant class which is ramming these guys down our throats — before it’s too late.

    (and yes, I find it ironic writing that).

  4. Chris says:

    Mark,

    I might debate that “all without a single organizer even in the building.” statement. Congressman Linder (who I know is on the Romney team), did say that there was no one running who had big ideas. And when Cong. Linder asked people to raise their hands for the top three candidates, less than five people said they liked McCain, Romney or Guiliani.

    I think Thompson’s appeal to us like like Obama’s appeal to the left: he is a well spoken fresh face, who doesn’t have all the political baggage of being a career politician.

  5. Icarus says:

    From Fox News: A fly in the ointment,

    WASHINGTON — Former Tennessee Republican Sen. Fred Thompson says he’s in remission from lymphoma.

    Thompson, who is considering a run for the White House in 2008, says the illness is treatable.

    “I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms. My life expectancy should not be affected. I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future—and with no debilitating side effects,” Thompson said.

    • Watch an exclusive interview with Thompson on Your World with Neil Cavuto on FOX News at 4 p.m. EDT.

    Thompson, a “Law and Order” actor, was diagnosed with indolent lymphoma about two and a half years ago after a routine physical.

    Thompson recently told FOX News he was considering making a bid for president.

    “I’m going to wait and see what happens,” Thompson said. “I want to see my colleagues on the campaign trial, what they say, what they emphasize, whether they can carry the ball next November.”

    Thompson, 64, who plays district attorney Arthur Branch on NBC’s drama, said he was pondering a run after former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker and other Tennessee Republicans began drumming up support for his possible Republican candidacy, citing his conservative credentials.

  6. bowersville says:

    Fred Thompson has his own write up on this at Redstate.com that is worth you’re time to read. Erick also has a perspective on it that is worthwhile.

  7. GAWire says:

    >>”””22% Between Fred Thompson and Newt, or as I like to say, 22% for “None of the Above”, since neither is yet a candidate.”””

    Unfortunately, that analysis does not translate into statistical accurate results. For the sake of the poll, they don’t need to be candidates – the question is asked “of the following names, who would you choose as the GOP nomination …” (not verbatum). Whether or not they have announced their candidacies is a non-issue for the purpose of these results.

    However, the results are somewhat skewed, but only because of recent developments, that being the recent news of Thompson’s health problems, which will inevitably mean he will not run.

    So, while you can’t eliminate the results from this poll, you can certainly assume the data is no longer accurate, b/c if you were to conduct the poll today, you would need to remove Thompson from the list of possibles, which would change a lot of the data.

    Now, this is based completely on assumption, but I think a significant portion of Thompson’s support would be divided amongst McCain and Newt, with a little bit going to Romney. You can assume Romney’s numbers would be a little higher without Thompson as a choice. Same goes for Newt, but not a great deal. McCain would get a few points (i.e. 1-3 probably) from Thompson’s. That is my analysis and is not based on any statistical data or otherwise empirical information.

    Ultimately, I take anything SV produces with a grain of salt. It’s not that their data is complete crap – you just have to realize before hand that they’re data is not the most reliable when compared to other firms’ data like POS or Tarrance.

  8. Know Nothing says:

    You’ve got to be kidding me. Drop this subject and pick it back up again in October when the numbers might actually start to mean anything.

  9. CHelf says:

    If the McCain bus tanks I see his people moving to a Fred Thompson team. Thompson and McCain are close and have been partners in many issues in the past. Thompson was McCain’s national chair in 2000 and Thompson was behind McCain-Feingold. I could even see a McCain-Thompson ticket before any other ones simply for their history together.

  10. GAWire says:

    Know Nothing, regardless of the actual poll, the numbers ALWAYS mean something, no matter how far out.

    CHelf, I agree that Thompson and McCain were close in the Senate, but their supporters are very different. I don’t think we are going to see a mass move of support from one candidate to the other.

Comments are closed.