“It” begins…

The Augusta Chronicle is already covering the 10th Congressional District special election. As Jeff noted yesterday, of the three Republican frontrunners, only Sen. Hudgens has announced his intentions to run. And he will likely be the only one to do so prior to Gov. Perdue’s issuance of a writ of election – or at least until after the funeral.

State Sen. Ralph Hudgens, R-Comer, made his intentions clear Tuesday.

State Reps. Barry Fleming, R-Harlem, and Sen. Jim Whitehead, R-Evans, are planning on making a run, according to political observers, but neither is talking about his plans until after the funeral.

16 comments

  1. drjay says:

    they had web posted another article yesterday that i can no longer find w/ a list of names not in that article that included lee muns and a few others not mentioned in the new article

  2. drjay says:

    i would be shocked to see joey brush resurect his political career–but anything is possible–there are so many gop’s falling all over each other in evans and martinez–and joey was beaten in a primary afterall…

  3. Maybe as a token of fiscal conservatism all the current officeholders planning on running could let the Governor know, resign in advance of his special election decree for the Congressional race, and then we could do all the specials to fill the legislative seats on the same day.

  4. MrGOPJr says:

    I see state Rep. Alan Powell (D-Hartwell) on the list of potentials and he said he is considering it. Wonder if he’d stay a Dem for the race in the mold of a Heath Shuler or switch parties?

    If he did run, his House seat would likely go Republican.

  5. IndyInjun says:

    The machinations inside Columbia County politics are undoubtedly fast and furious.

    Perhaps some new faces will spring forth…..

  6. MrGOPJr says:

    Yes, that is “Kool-Aid” Powell. Bull Moose, I have not heard Gloria Norwood mentioned. If I were considering the race, I’d wait to see if a member of the Norwood Family was interested.

  7. bowersville says:

    It seems logical that Powell(D-Hartwell) of the 29th would be a strong candidate seeing he won 3-1. But the numbers are misleading to outsiders. If Powell vacates the seat and the Rs run the same type of candidate, it stays D.

    I don’t know the rules for Legislators in this particular situation. If we have a strongly contested R primary, the seat will most likely go R.

    Without a contested primary and we have the same R running for this seat in the 29th as we had in the general, I can think of several generational elected D’s that could mount a strong campaign and win.

    I approached Powell, and the local party on several occasions, about running as an R, the local party has resisted. The state party put money and effort towards the 29th, I doubt Powell would switch.

    And yes. Powell won and there was a slogan, paid for by locals “Don’t drink the Koolaid.”

  8. MrGOPJr says:

    Thanks for the insight, bowersville. I have many relatives in Franklin and Hart counties who vote Republican on all other races, but have continued to support Powell as a Democrat. He has enjoyed a lot of crossover support. I don’t know how much of that would still be there for a Congressional run.

    I agree that Powell would be doubtful to switch considering the effort against him last time by the state party, same with Jamieson of Toccoa, who I see has said she will not run for Congress.

    The rules for a legislative special election would be the same, officially “non-partisan,” but candidates would be asked to indicate a party affiliation when qualifying.

  9. bowersville says:

    According to a quote in the AJC, Kidd is anticipating a one candidate race on the D side.

    I can’t see Powell, Jamieson or Jackson seeking the same seat, they will decide as always, among themselves, and throw all possible support to the other. And forget Don Johnson even if he’s from Franklin and lives in Hart. There is still a lot of animosity towards that congress, even if Johnson was only a freshman.

    I believe if the R side is so overloaded, (as in the majority of candidates are from the south end of the 10th), and it comes to a runoff, with an R against a D, it could be a toss up in some parts, due to low voter turn out.

  10. Adam Fogle says:

    bowersville,

    As a former resident of the “great” state of Louisiana, I’m familiar with the Cajun Primary system. Too familiar. And THIS special election IS going to be a Cajun Primary.

    It doesn’t work the way you described. Republican districts go Republican, Democratic districts go Democratic and toss-ups go either way. The 10th is a Republican district, and, barring a scandal or upset, will stay Republican.

    The only possible scenario favoring Democrats is one which they all get behind one strong candidate and somehow carry more than 50% of the vote – thus avoiding a runoff – against a very split Republican field. But that is highly unlikely.

    Also possible, but even less likely for Democrats, would be to back two – and only two – very strong candidates who carry the top two spots in the election and force a runoff between two Democrats. Again – even more unlikely than the first scenario.

    What is most likely to happen is that a strong Republican and a strong Democrat – or possibly even another strong Republican since the 10th is a solid GOP district – hold the top two spots going into the runoff.

    A Republican then – scandal or huge upset aside – would win the runoff with roughly the same numbers Rep. Norwood enjoyed in November; somewhere in the 55-65% range.

  11. bowersville says:

    I don’t know that what I said varied greatly from your analysis, I said “IN SOME PARTS” not the district.

  12. atlantaman says:

    While I appreciate the Democrat’s optimism, getting excited over this race is the equivalent of the GOP thinking they would have a shot at a special election in John Lewis’ district.

    Even if lighting struck, because of the uniqueness of the “Cajun Primary”, the newly elected Democrat would be toast a year and a half later in the normal election.

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