New Year’s Predictions

Here are mine, put your’s in the comments:

1) The GOP will implement tax reforms that will not be as aggressive as they should be, but will please the Chamber of Commerce.

2) The General Assembly will reject the idea to expand the Georgia Supreme Court.

3) Cathy Cox will not for the U.S. Senate against Saxby Chambliss. Jim Marshall will actively consider it. Shirley Franklin will too, but won’t run.

4) The Georgia Democratic Party will fracture further between rural conservatives and urban liberals, but will stay unified enough to vote in block during the General Assembly Session.

5) Governor Perdue will have a new Chief of Staff by this time next year.

6) Casey Cagle and Glenn Richardson will be set up by the media as gubernatorial rivals for 2010. We should all be watching Lynn Westmoreland, but we won’t.

7) Senator Eric Johnson will drop hints that he is not going to run again in 2008.

8) Governor Perdue will not be as aggressive in pushing comprehensive legislative agendas as either the Lt. Governor or Speaker leading to breakdowns between the Executive and Legislative branches.

9) The Supreme Court will stretch its legs, but the Governor and Legislator will lay the smack down through the threat of significant budget cuts.,

10) Anthony Scott Hobbs will not become the new GAGOP Chair.

11) Speaker Richardson will flirt with the idea of hanging on until the 2010 redistricting and then going to Congress with Georgia’s new congressional district drawn for him.

31 comments

  1. SevenHillsDem says:

    Erick, I think you may be right about all of those.

    I will add that a rift will form between the Governor and Lieutenant Governor because Sonny views himself as having a mandate, and Casey wants to set up his own agenda pending a run for Governor.

  2. rugby_fan says:

    Cox has said she is done with politics. I seem to remember hearing rumors that JI and SP are going to switch positions. Can anyone confirm?

  3. MountainThinker says:

    While there’s little doubt that Johnny Isakson very much wants to be the Governor, and Sonny Perdue’s political life could indeed have legs for ’08 or ’10 I don’t think there is any truly organized thinking in that direction, primarily because while Sonny might be able to take that senate seat with a smile, there are too many people that want a shot at that pretty mansion in Atlanta to ever stand aside for Johnny, to say nothing of the grassroots/conservative wings of the party having NEVER been ‘in love’ with JI, though I think we all certainly appreciate his service and believe he has done some good.

    I think the GAGOP chairman’s race and rules committee’s proceedings should be very interesting indeed.

    I suspect we may finally see Lewis Massey begin to re-emerge on the scene…I sincerely don’t think he’s done…and the +/- $4 Million he has on-hand in a campaign account agrees with me!

    Look for the wild ride in ’08 for Nathan Deal and Charlie Norwood’s seats if they decide to retire gracefully after being champions of the GOP, something I suspect they’ll be compelled to announce by Thanksgiving at the latest.
    Gonna be an obscenely crowded field for those seats.

    That’s my view from way up here at least!

  4. liberty21 says:

    Let me say on your Cagle-Richardson rival will probably be small or not happen. I don’t see Cagle or Richardson as possible candidates for the 2010 gubernatorial election. If so Cagle would have a better chance to get the GOP nomination for Governor than Richardson because of Richardson’s H.B 218. Cagle thankfully is opposed to H.B 218 and could use that successful against Glenn Richardson in a gubernatorial primary. I do a have presidential predictions Guliani, Hillary Clinton and Duncan Hunter will make their candidacies for President official

  5. foray says:

    If Johnny ran for Governor the GOP would lay down for him . . . his reputation is stellar in Atlanta and they like him a lot more in South Georgia than they do Saxby.

  6. SevenHillsDem says:

    MountainThinker, I agree with you that Lewis Massey will begin to reemerge. Having been defeated in 1998, he can’t really be connected too much to the Barnes-Taylor-Cox struggles of the last few years.

    Ten years is a long time (Roy Barnes ran for Governor 8 years after his first defeat) and Massey didn’t have high negatives (except for “experience”) back then.

  7. atlantaman says:

    “Massey didn’t have high negatives (except for “experience”) back then.”

    I’m not sure if his “experience” over at SciTrek is going to add to his reputation.

  8. drjay says:

    sen. johnson has been laying hints about not running in 08 or 2010 at the latest–i do not see isakson running for guv again–but i have heard other names — it may be a free for all if a frontrunner does not emerge for 2010 by 2008…

  9. atlantaman says:

    If Isakson runs for Gov. then all those folks like Cagle and Westmoreland will start jockying to run for the US Senate. What would be interesting is if Perdue decided to run for Isakson’s Senate seat.

  10. liberty21 says:

    I highly do not believe Johnny Isakson will run for Governor in 2010, but he will run for reelection for US Senate that year. Chambliss and Isakson both want a 2nd term as US Senator. We really do not know which Republicans or Democrats are giving the Governorship as serious thought.

  11. dcraigwhite says:

    Cagle will run for Gov.

    One of the State Sens in Cagle’s Transition team will run for Lt. Gov.

    There will be no rift between Sonny and Casey. This could be one of the more productive general assemblies of our time.

  12. Philly says:

    I do not believe Isakson wants to run for Governor. He is a great Senator.

    I do believe that Westmoreland will run for Governor and then there is always Handel. Either one would make a great choice.

    As for Georgia GOP Chairman, I like Scott-Hobbs but have not heard he was running. Some of you might not like him, but he does have guts enough to take stances and is not afraid to confront those in leadership. Some of you are afraid and just support what those in power tell you to.

    It is a mistake to consider Scott-Hobbs a joke. If he does not run, which I think is doubtful, I am sure he would throw his support to Everhart and help her win. Cobb does have a considerable number of delegates to the Georgia GOP Convention and since it will be held in Gwinnett, I would expect all the delegates will be attending. The same for all the metro counties.

    If he and Everhart ran, they would split the vote and the Gov’s handpicked choice would win. I would think that Everhart would have the best shot at winning.

    I have heard that since Everhart has announced she is running that the powers to be in the Georgia GOP have shunned her and treated her quite badly. She is 1st Vice Chairman and is due respect and should not be shut out of events as Alec is doing now. It demonstrates the dictatorship mentality that exists now in the GA GOP.

  13. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Saxby is chosen as a VP candidate, but in order not to leave an open seat steps down, Governor then appoints himself, Casey becomes Governor. Saving the GAGOP a lot of heartache.

    If that does not happen then;

    Gingrey retires from House, runs for Governor.

    Lynn stays put.

    Kingston does not like that he lost his leadership bid, steps down. Runs for Governor

    Nathan Deal rumors stepping down, but files for re-election and runs again.

    Norwood steps down for health reasons.

    ASH runs for chair, but pulls a repeat of last time and fails to follow through on the floor. Making Sue the Chairman

  14. dcraigwhite says:

    Casey Cagle will be the next Governor.

    One of the State Senators on Cagle’s Transition Team will run for Lt. Governor – and win.

    It will be shocking if Sonny Perdue pursues political office beyond 2010 – unless he is offered the VP slot, which is more likely to go to either Huckabee or Sanford.

    The next Chair of the GAGOP will also be supported by Casey Cagle.

    Karen Handel will not run for Governor. She will remain Secretary of State for quite some time and eventually run for either U.S. House or U.S. Senate – and win.

    I hope Hermain Cain resurfaces as a candidate for state-wide office in Georgia. Either Secretary of State (once Handel leaves) or U.S. Senate again (if Johnny or Saxby leaves).

  15. CobbGOPer says:

    Westmoreland would never run for Senate. He hates DC. He would much rather be governor, and I think you’ll see him begin to emerge over this year and next in a more prominent fashion in the media (as long as he stays off the Colbert Report) to start boosting his statewide name id.

  16. drjay says:

    well as long as someone else mentioned it 1st–i have heard it rumored that kingston may be interested in leaving d.c. and running for guv…

  17. CobbGOPer says:

    Kingston would be interesting, though he would have to start boosting his name ID immensely.

    But I think if Isakson decides he wants to run, Kingston would go for Senate and be a frontrunner. I think he would have better fundraising capability than Gingrey, Westmoreland, etc. I don’t think Sonny runs for Senate (though I guess as new Chair of the RGA, he could be considered a dark-horse for VP in ’08 to get a southerner on the ticket), I would think he’d rather get back to running his businesses.

  18. Bull Moose says:

    What an interesting and pointless post!

    I don’t see a rivalry between Richardson and Cagle.

    It will be interesting if Johnny Isakson decides he wants to be Governor. I think he would clear the field. His fundraising advantage would be very strong.

    A very interesting thought on Lewis Massey making a comeback. I think that would be interesting. Maybe he’ll run against Saxby? If Dems are every going to make a comeback, they need an energetic and fresh face.

    I do not see Jack Kingston making a run for Governor. Though, if Isakson runs for Governor, I could see Kingston running for the Senate.

    I think it’s time that Norwood and Deal retire, whether they do or not is another question. For that matter, it may be time for John Linder to think about it too.

    I do not think that Saxby will be selected as VP. I think that Saxby will face a very tough reelection, depending on who runs against him, especially if the situation in Iraq continues the way that it is.

    I think that Gingrich slowly emerges as a favorite for the White House by fall 07.

    As for Westmoreland, I think he may think about running for Governor, but will either be unsuccessful in the primary or decide not to run.

  19. rugby_fan says:

    Actually, I predict that the legislative leadership of the GAGOP will all feud with each other.

    Johnson won’t appreciate a return of the Lt. Governor’s power, Cagle and Richardson will spar to be the most conservative Republican, and throw Sonny in the mix and it promises to be an interesting session.

    One last thing, I remember James Magazine said that a prominent politician was going to announce his or her retirement by New Year, regardless of the election outcome. Alas, the date has come and gone. Does anyone have a clue who it might be? I wagered Sen. Johnson (he wouldn’t want to share power) but, this has not proved to be the case.

  20. Jeff says:

    Did anybody pay attention to the exit polls? Georgia is headed to hell. There are too many self ascribed “Evangelical” republicans for anything good to happen. We are not talking about people that make decisions based on policy, all they know fear and hate. They are afraid of everything that they do not understand… (i.e. homosexual rights, Islam, the Bill of Right, women’s right to choose, etc) and hate anybody that is not a cookie cutter image of themselves and the GOP. Don’t believe me…how many GOP minorities are in the Georgia Assembly or State Senate? How many non christians? How many progressives?

  21. dcraigwhite says:

    jeff….that’s not a sweeping generalization. wow.

    Christians – stay out of government…God forbid we make policy decisions and vote based on a conscience or deeper moral calling.

    One example – Charlice Byrd(R-Woodstock) Asian and Female. Considered a “minority” by all standards – a good legislator.

    Don’t expect tolerance if you’re not willing to show any.

  22. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Willie Talton (R- Warner Robins)
    Melvin Everson (R- Gwinnett)
    Charlice Byrd (R- Woodstock)

    But you see Jeff, Republicans judge based on performance. Not all of those things found in the equal rights act. Get your facts straight before you show your ignorance.

  23. jsm says:

    Jeff,

    “Georgia is headed to hell.”

    Let us all know as soon as we get there.

    Why don’t you explain “homosexual rights, Islam, the Bill of Right (sic), women’s right to choose, etc” to us, since we don’t understand. Please. I can’t help but laugh when I read rants like that.

  24. RuralDem says:

    Jeff,

    I think those on both sides who can actually put the partisan non-sense away for a moment can and will admit that Georgia is a socially conservative state. Sure, the Democratic Party of Georgia is unfortunantly becoming more and more socially “progressive” (liberal), but the majority of the party is still socially conservative.

    Maybe the more urban areas are treading socially liberal, but come to any place outside of Atlanta and you’ll see both sides are socially conservative.

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