It’s never too early to talk about reapportionment.

According to this report, as it now stands, Georgia will gain a Congressional seat in 2010.

So, who is going to run for the new seat and where will it be?

18 comments

  1. atlantaman says:

    I know it’s ridiculous to even speculate, because they’ll have to adjust all the districts to create the new one – but I’ll go out on the line.

    All the growth has been on the north side: Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, etc.. My WAG is that a new district is created up in that neck of the woods and Chip Rogers is one of the people who run for it.

  2. liberty21 says:

    I have no idea where they would put this new 14th district. When the districting happens they will have to move some districts around where ever they put it.

  3. My guess is that Linder and Price will be chasing these voters into the outer suburbs as the inner rings of their districts begin to change.

    If the GOP is still in charge, do they try and take a shot at Marshall and or Barrow? The growth in Marshall’s district in Newton County is pretty positive for him, his deviation (as drawn) may stay close to 0%.

    If I had to guess, the new district would be North Atlanta, maybe spanning from Vinings to Norcross through Sandy Springs and Dunwoody. It would probably lean Republican, but the right kind of Democrat could win it.

  4. Adam Fogle says:

    If the GOP is still in charge, do they try and take a shot at Marshall and or Barrow?

    I doubt it. Unfortunately, most of the growth in Georgia is up in Atlanta.

    I can’t speak for Marshall’s district, but in the 12th, all of the growth is in Effingham County and favors a GOP challenger.

    Effingham is also a county that is geographically locked into the 12th.

  5. macongop says:

    I could see the 8th and 12th being connected and merging Marshall(maybe C. Jack Ellis by that time) and Barrows into a run off (granted 4 years away) and opening up 2 new Republican leaning districts.

  6. joe says:

    I live in Henry County, which is one of the fastest growing counties in the US. I vote in District 13, which is one of the most gerrymandered districts anywhere. No matter how things are changed, it can not possibly get any worse.

  7. Bull Moose says:

    You never know when that national wave towards Democratic politics is going to hit in Georgia, so I would recommend that Republicans take the high road and adopt a non-partisan way for the next round of reapportionment.

    Things that would cause the wave to build here locally are issues surrounding secrecy and arrogance in government and if Republicans overeach or go in the wrong direction on taxes. I’d say that another potential mine is health care.

    So avoid the potential problems and first adopt the non-partisan redistricting committee solution and be open, honest, and forthright about what you’re doing in government.

  8. SevenHillsDem says:

    It would be hard to merge Barrow and Marshall into a district that would not be Democratic. It would have to have Macon and Savannah and those two would be enough to ensure the district would be Democratic.

    However, people do have to worry about the voting rights act and whether or not it is violated.

    If the Republicans are in charge and feel like sticking it to the city of Atlanta (pending a retirement from John Lewis) they could split the city into different districts and dilute it.

    We’re seeing a population increase here in Rome and Floyd County, so it may be the case where the 11th reverts back to something like what the old 7th district used to be and may be centered around Floyd, Gordon, Bartow, Polk, Whitfield, Dade, Walker, Catoosa, Murray, Pickens, and Chattooga counties.

  9. Harry says:

    BullMoose,

    What got the GOP in trouble nationally was not being fiscally conservative on things like bridges to nowhere, as well as Iraq of course. In Georgia I would see a greater risk to the GOP if they don’t demonstrate strong conservative principles. Folks like me would start thinking along libertarian lines.

  10. rugby_fan says:

    You never know when that national wave towards Democratic politics is going to hit in Georgia,

    Bull Moose: I will give you an exact date; approximately never.

  11. Bull Moose says:

    Very funny…

    I think that the arrogance made the ethical issues ring louder… It was like a perfect storm nationally… So many issues that it was hard for Republicans to overcome them all.

    We’re fortunate in GA.

  12. Harry,

    With only about 30 seats out of 435 changing hands, may I remind you that pork’s win record is still pretty good. Sure, it dropped to about 93% from 99%, but regardless…

    The GOP’s troubles here will stem from two unethical gentlemen, Sonny Perdue (beginning to be documented in the media) and Glenn Richardson. In addition, they will overreach on something that will backfire, and it most certainly will be some sort of “conservative” proposal, like decentralizing education spending and taxes from the state to the counties.

    In order to survive redistricting at the very least on fair playing grounds, Dems need one of the following: 1) non partisan redistricting 2) Democratic President 3) Democratic Governor 4) Democratic House/Senate.

    1 of those 4 is very likely. In fact, depending on where population shifts, they may not even need #4. Want to know the secret reason our map was so ugly…it’s called how do you protect all those rural incumbents in districts that are rapidly losing population. Guess what, all those guys switched to the Republican party. Have fun!

  13. atlantaman says:

    “Want to know the secret reason our map was so ugly…it’s called how do you protect all those rural incumbents in districts that are rapidly losing population.”

    Is that why my rural district in the middle of the city of Atlanta was drawn under the Democrats with 4 state reps?

  14. It was impossible to draw a map that could satisfy the Richard Royals of the world and also have a Democratic majority without multimembers elsewhere. In other words, you can draw a majority Democratic map blindly but not one that would satisfy the guys who needed to vote for it.

    Needed 4 seats out of there instead of a 2-2 D-R split in order to waste 2 seats somewhere else, if that makes sense.

    Will the Republicans need to use multimembers in 2011, probably not. But a lot of the expected exurban growth of the state will probably be wasted on creative districts to bail out people like Chuck Sims and Mark Hatfield who are going to be in districts that (as presently configured) are going to be 20% too small — at least.

  15. DougieFresh says:

    The Liberal bread and butter states (and Ohio, which will likely become one) lose representatives, the conservative states gain.

    New York might be only the 4th most populous state by 2010.

  16. Demonbeck says:

    Every district will be affected.

    You’ll likely see Augusta drawn out of the 12th and see Kingston’s 1st take in more of Democratic Chatham as well – losing a large portion of the western part of his district. I’d be willing to bet that Norwood’s district would absorb Augusta and that there would be a push for a new district separating Bishop and Kingston (Valdosta to Warner Robins/Macon.) Marshall’s district will likely see the most change though of all the current districts if I had to bet.

  17. Bull Moose says:

    Again, Non-partisan redistricting. It’s the right thing to do. Political leaders need to remember that they have a responsibility to do the RIGHT thing, regardless of whether or not its in the best interests of their own personal careers.

    Congressional Redistricting, I predict that the 1st/12th split stays pretty much the way that it is. A lot of the growth in the state is focused on the coast. I would expect that Marshall’s district takes up more of Macon to compensate for Jack gaining more on the coast. A new district is likely going to be in the Gwinnett-Clarke area and/or the North Georgia area. (Howdy Congressmen Mullis, Shafer, or Kemp)

    As for overreaching on agendas, I think that the Chamber most prone to it is on the House side. In the last session, it was leaders of the House who tried to kill the smoking ban. It was leaders of the House who tried to shut the doors on open government. It’s also worth noting, that it’s clearly leaders of the House who continually push to strip insurance of life saving cancer screenings. The House has a clear history of pushing the envelope and only time will tell of they go over board. I’ll reconsider my opinion midway through this session…

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