A peak into the new year via Presidential Polling…

Thanks to www.politicalinsider.com, Democrats Hold Edge in 2008

From a CNN poll, look at these matchups (my thoughts are in the parenthesis):

  • Clinton 47%, McCain 47% (that’s really close)
  • Clinton 48%, Giuliani 46% (that’s too close)
  • Clinton 57%, Romney 34% (abandon ship)
  • McCain 47%, Obama 43% (hope Obama and Clinton don’t team up)
  • Giuliani 49%, Obama 42% (see above)
  • Obama 51%, Romney 35% (I think anyone can beat Romney)
  • Gore 47%, McCain 46% (how about this Gore boomlet?)
  • Gore 46%, Giuliani 46% (too close for comfort)
  • Gore 53%, Romney 37% (again, I think anyone can beat Romney, well maybe not Walter Mondale)

The poll did not test other potential matchups.

My thoughts: 
To those of you on the Romney bandwagon, wow, that’s a very steep hill to climb… The numbers show you where that’s going.  I mean, he does best against Al Gore, come on… In 2008 we are going to face a very strong and united Democratic party with a lot of momentum.  It’s crucial that we nominate a strong Republican that can unite the GOP as well as appeal to Independents and Democrats. 

18 comments

  1. In fairness to Romney, he is an unknown commodity and this far away from the election this polls are generally just a name ID matchup. Remember, Taylor trailed Cox 50-25 before he started his TV advertising and closed the gap almost immediately (after about 10 days according to internal polling from both sides).

    What would worry me more is that McCain and Giuliani aren’t seeing the kind of big advantages they previously have. While Romney almost certainly has no where to go but up, John and Rudy have (in my opinion) no where to go but down.

    Right now, but have more or less national hero profiles. Start highlighting McCain’s many flip flops and then you can start talking about Keating Five (the embrace of campaign finance reform is just a political calculation as a result of that scandal) and start looking at Rudy’s record as Mayor on every day not called 9/11 and you’ll find a lot of lets say “family business” ties and whatnot.

    If I were a Republican, this poll actually says to me pick Romney not the other two. Actually, Romney is also a bad choice (American ain’t ready for a Mormon) so the poll really says pick Huckabee or whoever. Someone with some upside potential.

  2. atlantaman says:

    I agree with Hardcore, except I’m not 100% sure Romney can’t win because he’s a Mormon. Although even as a Republican I can admit the public has gone sour on George Bush and the Republicans are underdogs in 2008. If a Republican has any chance at all of winning it will be a very close election and if there are even a small percentage of people who would base their vote on the Mormon thing it could be a deciding factor. (I may have just contradicted myself in that paragraph).

    Since the Dems are in the driver’s seat, I think the only hope the GOP has is Hillary – although I readily admit Hillary could also win as President. I know she’s got a huge fan base, but she’s got a lot of folks that hate her as well. If the Dems nominate someone less polarizing for President and Pelosi can keep a lid on things in the House, I think the GOP is toast in 2008.

    Any poll right now is worthless, especially since all these candidates need to make it through the primaries.

  3. liberty21 says:

    I wouldn’t call Mitt Romney a idiot. He was elected 2 terms as Governor of Massachuttess. There are plenty of southerners that call Mitt Romney a idiot, there are plenty of northerners that call Ralph Reed a idiot. The polls should have polled John Edwards against John McCain.

  4. ugadog says:

    Does it really matter though? The Republicans are a dead national party. They’ve lost the popular vote in 3 out of the last 4 elections. And the won they won was only the result of Sept. 11th. They lost control of both houses of congress and President Bush wants to increase troops, not decrease. We could nominate Denniss Kucinich and still win. (tounge and cheek mostly)

  5. drjay says:

    2 years out–come on moose this is just a name id. poll–i wonder what bill clinton polled in 12-90 or carter in 12-74, or reagan in 12-78 joe leiberman was the odds on fave for the dem nomintaion this far out before the 04 race–and dean was a year later—i do not remember either of them ending up as the nominee however….i am cautiously optimistic to see jim gilmore looking at the race but i’ll need to learn a bit more about him…

  6. Mike Hauncho says:

    We are two years away and we are debating on a straw poll. I will save my energy by not getting into this debate or the next 50 polls that come out.

  7. GAWire says:

    Bull, I disagree with your assessment of these numbers and Romney. The guy in his position this far out is typically the one who becomes the nominee. If there is a lost cause that I find out of these numbers, it is McCain. Why? Well, first, b/c the numbers are from Political Insider. And, second, they’re shi%%y numbers.

    Hauncho, yes we’re debating on a straw poll, b/c that’s how it is done two years out. Do they really tell us anything? Absolutely NOT! Are they worthy of debate? Yes, if for no other reason than to point out they are BS.

    Personally, I don’t think the GOP’s candidate is even out there known yet. I can tell you that if McCain is our candidate, then we should go ahead and change all of the prefixes to … MADAME PRESIDENT!

  8. Demonbeck says:

    GAWire,

    Keep in mind that McCain is polling even with HRC – despite the coverage she recieves and the name rec she brings to the table. Let’s not forget he is also getting these numbers weeks after the Republicans got trounced nationwide on election day.

    The fact that any Republican is polling close to the Dem frontrunners right now does not bode well for the Dems. Especially considering that the pendulum often swings back in the next election.

  9. Bull Moose says:

    These are important numbers because of the stakes in the 2008 election. You aren’t going to see a no name appear like in the past, especially when you have two huge opponents sitting and waiting the way that Clinton and Obama are.

    If 2008 is going to be a close election, then I don’t think the Republicans can afford the Romney problem with Mormonism. I think there’d be enough people who would not vote for him just because of that and it would tip the election to the Dems. My thinking is why go there?

  10. MountainThinker says:

    And Liberty21…Romney is a one-term governor who didn’t run for re-election, mostly because he wouldn’t have won and wanted to dodge the George Allen bullet. Mike Huckabee is the man to watch…

  11. CHelf says:

    Romney’s numbers are low due to low name ID. He has the uphill battle of having to go out there and define himself as something different from the rest of the fold. He has his work cut out for him. Add to the fact that he has plenty of items that pose as negatives, his opponents can sit back through proxies and lob bombs from afar reminding people what state he’s from and was elected Governor of, being a Mormon, and his previous history on social issues. Even if we’re to believe he has seen the light and converted overnight, there is quite a bit of baggage that the others can help define his image on.

  12. Harry says:

    But, Romney is smart, comes across very strong, and could probably help the GOP rebuild in the more conservative parts of New England and the midwest, which is where they need helpin order to win a national election.

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