With Barack Obama on a tear in New Hampshire, Republicans licking their wounds from last month, and a strong anti-GOP sentiment likely to persist for a while, my buddies and I spent the evening discussing possibilities for 2008. And this possibility came to mind:
There are numerous hypothetical scenarios here, but at least entertain the thought for the purposes of this thread.
It is Nov. 4, 2008; Election Day. After a very dirty, expensive, and hard-fought primary, Mitt Romney edged out Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to win the Republican nomination, despite losing handily in South Carolina. But the impact, both financially and personally, was devastating.
Romney was painted as a social conservative who is in favor of gay marriage. And he is a Mormon. This does not at all sit well with southern voters. Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson capitalize on Romney’s image and run as strong third party candidates. They appeal to many Christian voters who are highly skeptical of a Mormon candidate, especially in light of his stance on gay marriage.
Add to the mix Tom Tancredo, who is also running as a third party candidate. He is angry that immigration reform was not at the top of the agenda during the primary and hopes to make a statement. While none of the three are expected to carry a single state, combined they will likely pull anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of the total electorate, mostly from Romney’s base.
On the Democratic side, Obama skated through his primary with an unexpectedly small challenge from Hillary Clinton, whose candidacy dwindled after crushing blows in the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus. Obama has a huge war chest and a unified Democratic Party. He is very appealing to swing voters and is the first ever serious African American candidate for the White House.
The southern voting block is likely to be split between the Republican candidate and three conservative, single-issue, third party candidates. Obama will win the White House in a rout, carrying all of the traditional blue states as well as the swing states.
Most moderate voters will stay at home and the Republican base is complacent and disconnected after being torn by religious, social and immigration issues. And because it is the first time in U.S. history that an African American has seriously contended for the presidency, black voters – mostly Democrats – are expected to turn out in numbers as high as 70 percent.
This is a potential scenario, so I ask you:
Were this to happen, would Georgia (30 percent black) go for Obama?
What about other states in the southern voting block?
What would be the impact on statewide and Congressional races, especially Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat?
I know there are a bunch of “what if’s