Newt for President picking up steam?

Fortune magazine has an article about Newt’s quasi-Presidential run. The Political Insider and Red State are talking about the Fortune article while Bill Shipp explains how Newt was a winner on November 7:

Conventional wisdom in Washington now holds the Republican nomination will be captured by one of the following: Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts or former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

None of the three are especially user-friendly in the Southland. At 70, McCain is pushing the age barrier and his conservative credentials are suspect. Romney passes the conservative test OK, but he is Mormon, an affiliation that might not sit well with Southern evangelicals. Though Giuliani is popular in the South and even came to Atlanta to speak at a fundraising event for Ralph Reed, his liberal stances and marital scandals would never pass muster among the region’s GOP faithful.

Unless the South plays a role in selecting the Republican nominee, it is likely to be isolated from presidential politics altogether. Both Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats’ last nominees, spent little time or money in the South. The Democrats’ 2008 candidate is likely to follow the same course. By contrast, hanging onto the South could be central to the Republican strategy of retaining the White House in 2008. Gingrich, who served 16 years as a Georgia representative, has strong ties to the region.

Even if Gingrich decides against seeking the nomination, you can bet he will weigh in on the selection of the Republican candidate, whoever he or she might be.

32 comments

  1. debbie0040 says:

    I like both Newt and Rudy in 2008.

    Fortunes can change very quickly in politics. It is so far away, you never know who else might emerge as a candidate.

  2. DoubleDawg3 says:

    Bull Moose, I echo those thoughts.

    Why not have McCain get the Presidential nod and have him pick someone like, oh, Haley Barbour as the VP Candidate. That helps with your southern vote right there…plus, he was one of the few politicians that came out of Katrina looking goodn. (NOTE – this would have been the spot where, about 2 years ago, I would have mentioned the same possible VP job for another Southern Governor – Jeb Bush – but I think a great deal of Americans might not want another Bush in office for a while – although I think Jeb is the better of the brothers)

  3. Decaturguy says:

    Georgia exit polls showed that 65% of Georgians thought that Newt Gingrich would not make a good President.

    Of course, that number would be higher if you just asked Republicans.

    A Gingrich nomination would be a disaster nationally, though.

  4. David says:

    Newt for President ain’t gonna happen. Great tactician, unelectable candidate. What makes us think he’d be any more popular as a candidate for president than he was as Speaker? Lightening rod worse than Hillary. He may play to the base but that’s as far as he’ll go!

  5. John Konop says:

    President Sonny Perdue?

    Clinton, Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Obama, Frist, Gingrich, Gore, Kerry, Rice, Edwards, Pataki, Biden… Like it or not, the 2008 presidential race is officially underway. What’s missing is a clear front-runner for the Republican nomination.

    Georgia governor Sonny Perdue is, perhaps, the GOP’s best hope of maintaining control of the White House.

    Republicans are Mad about Spending and Immigration

    Perdue balanced the budget in Georgia, which insulates him from the criticisms that face any candidate that comes from our irresponsible, deficit-swelling congress.

    Perdue passed the toughest immigration legislation in the country, while Washington did nothing.

    Independents are Mad about the Iraq and Trade

    Since Perdue wasn’t in Washington during the vote to authorize the Iraq war, he can approach it with an open mind and no political baggage.

    Regarding trade reform, Perdue can reach out to natural allies like Gingrey, Norwood, Deal, and Westmorland, all of whom have been outspoken about cracking down on Chinese trade abuses (especially regarding child and slave labor).

    Perdue was the GOP’s Only Bright Light in the Mid-Term Election

    With Perdue at the top of the ticket, Georgia Republicans picked up both the Lt. Governor and Sectary of State offices and expanded the Republican majority in the statehouse. Republicans in the rest of the country took a “thumpin.

  6. David says:

    Morning, John. I’ll take a stab and say Romney. Folks are saying his Mormon faith will hurt him in this neck of the woods. I doubt it. The perception of a Mormon is one of a really straight laced, upright, good person. I think it might actually be a plus.

    And regarding Sonny, I know it’s shallow, (welcome to politics, right??) but he just doesn’t look “Presidential.” He actually DOES look like he just fell off the turnip truck.

    But, stranger things have happened, so we’ll just have to see.

  7. John Konop says:

    David

    I think that a GOP Governor has this best chance of winning against the Democrat. I just do not see a North Eastern GOP candidate having a chance in the primaries.

    I am not against Newt, but I think a new face has the best chance in the general election.

  8. SpaceyG says:

    How many wives total have Newt and Rudy had/have? The Fundys won’t like it. Nope, not one bit. Then again, seems regular folk just told all the Fundys, in this last election, to sit down and shut-up, so what the heck… go for it!

  9. rugby_fan says:

    John,

    the state constitution requires a balanced budget, much ado about nothing that SP balanced the budget.

    KH and CC’s victories had less to do with the top of the ticket than their respective opponents–both of whom were poor at best, and the fact that GA is now Republican to a similar extent that it was Democrat.

    Add to that the national scrutiny of Oaky Woods &c. (as someone alluded to earlier), I don’t think you have a strong candidate in SP.

    A stronger candidate would be Barbour. He handled Katrina quite well and is popular in MS while having genuine “conservative credibility”. I guess we will have to see how next year’s MS elections turn out before I say he is capable of winning nationally however.

    My money would be on a surprise, up start candidate no one sees in the picture. It is not good to “lead” the race this far out, so don’t be shocked if a “shocker”, erm, shocks everyone, in either party.

  10. David says:

    Barbour? I doubt it, unfortunately. He looks more like Boss Hogg than even Perdue. I know he’s a smart guy but in the era of slick image makers he goes nowhere. To quote Andre Agassi, ‘Image is everything.” How do we think Edwards got as far as he did with the Dems? Looks, 100%. Sure as hell wasn’t smarts. And no, I don’t have another alternative at this point, which bothers the hell out of me.

  11. John Konop says:

    David

    I agree with you it has to be someone who is not part of the Washington inside crowd. I am not trying to Push Sonny at anyone, I just do not see allot of candidates that fit the model. Do you?

  12. DoubleDawg3 says:

    Sam Nunn for President!!! (I’m living in the past). With Zell Miller as his VP — what a hoot that would be (I’d vote for that ticket)

    I, personally, would HATE to see Sonny Perdue running for either POTUS or VP…come on, if you’re picking from Georgia – go with J. Kingston or S. Chambliss (yes, I understand – they’re not the Governor and they have a “federal record”). Those are both far better conservative candidates.

    However, as for a a far more realistic shot – other than Haley Barbour whom I mentioned in an earlier post – what about Mike Huckabee? I could see him as a VP candidate that the South and the religious right could get behind — although, like Perdue and most other Governors, he does have some baggage from his time in office — plus, he could likely deliver Arkansas (I woule hope!), and might be helpful in ensuring that Missouri and Iowa stay “Red States” in the Presidential context. That’s 24 total Electoral College votes — there’s little chance of a Republican winning w/o getting all 3 of those states.

    The bigger question though, is can the GOP rebound in Ohio and Penn. enough to win at least one of those two states by 2008? I think McCain might be the only POTUS candidate that could do that for the GOP.

  13. John Konop says:

    The Republican who is doing well in Ohio and Michigan is Tancredo. His message is tough on trade, immigration and spending.

    If you look at the Blue Dod Democrats that did well or one that was the message.

    This was from David Brooks on NPR before the Mid-Terms.

    I think you see a couple of Senate candidates, in Virginia, here in Tennessee, in Missouri, who are pretty conservative, sort of hawkish on the war to some extent, mention the Dubai ports deal quite a lot, sort of suspicious of trade, surprisingly nationalist on immigration, and very much against gay marriage. So you see sort of a series of Democrats sort of in the upper south running this sort of campaign. And so far, it seems to be working.

  14. Mike Hauncho says:

    Sonny has no chance and spreading that idea around is pointless. Another person to consider as a possible VP candidate is Saxby. He has a great reputation, showed his leadership by becoming Chair of the Ag. Committee while in his first term, and he is from the South which we all agree the Republicans will need if we are to win in ’08. That is assuming that Newt does not get the Presidential nod.

  15. Chris says:

    I like Isakson over Chambliss as a possible VP nod. However, I think the best shot the GOP has is Gov. Sanford (R-SC) with a Rudy or Romney as VP.

  16. Mike Hauncho says:

    Newt will run but it is to his advantage to let everyone else come out and set up their committees while he is out on every station everyday telling everyone his ideas while not being restrained by campaign laws. All these early birds will have to start paying for everything while Newt can get on Hannity every night and say what he want for free. The man is the smartest candidate out there on either side but he is to the dems as Hillary is to us. One downside to Newt is his lack of friendly emotion. He is a very serious man and it shows but what doesn’t show is how nice of a person he really is when you have time to spend with him.

  17. John you are correct about Sonny’s popularity (compared to other Georgians) at this point, but as rugby fan mentioned, there is no way the Oaky Woods stuff stands up to national press scrutiny, it may not even ultimately stand up to local and state press and prosecutorial scrutiny.

    Now, as for Tancredo, he is the messenger of a deeply flawed message on immigration. The exit polls, even in very red Georgia, proved that as well as Burns and Collins inability to win Republican leaning districts with heavy anti-immigrant messages.

    Hell, even in Tancredo’s own Colorado 6th district, he only received 59% of the vote against a heavily underfunded candidate and with all of the national notoriety from his immigration crusade.

    To Republicans on this board: I find it instructive that you look to the South for nominees, considering that is the only region that is still with you and that a current Southern Republican president has driven all other regions of the country into the Democrats’ arms.

    It would be stupid for us to run John Kerry again and in light of Bush’s disastrous time in office (my opinion but also the opinion of 60%+ of voters nationwide) it would be stupid for the R’s to run a Southern candidate. Rudy G is probably the best candidate you’ve got, but again, he has a lot of ethical problems that haven’t really been exposed since he has been “America’s Mayor” but would probably see the light of day in a Presidential race.

    Romney is also a good choice, but the problem, even I suspect for someone like McCain is whoever captures the Republican nomination will have to contort themselves so much to win the Southern primaries that they may well emerge with all of the structural problems that the national and Congressional Republicans currently have, and they may have a hard time competing in the “big 3”, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

    If a Democrat wins those 3 states, they almost certainly become President, with or without the South’s assistance. We have proven we can capture Pennsylvania and Michigan, even when we lose nationally, and Ohio has a fresh distaste for the Republican status quo, which is largely identified with it’s Southern face. Let the South solely choose or supply the Republican nominee (especially lobbyist Haley Barbour) and you may make Ohio’s decision very easy for them (stick with the Dems).

  18. DougieFresh says:

    This is why we have primaries.

    To say Newt can’t win is just silly. No one knows. Who would have thought that a stiff like Kerry could win the Dem nomination?

    Let him and the others campaign, and see how things turn out.

    If we would stop trying to coronate front runners before they have a chance to make their case, we might stop ending up with “conservatives” like Bush.

  19. John Konop says:

    Chris

    The Blue Dogs that won in general, ran tough on immigration and trade. I do not understand your point. Read from his website and tell me why you think this does not sound like Tancredo?

    http://www.testerforsenate.com/issues

    Immigration

    Our first priority must be to secure ports and borders to keep out terror threats, illegal drugs and illegal immigrants. Jon Tester opposes amnesty for those who are here illegally. People who want to come to America should follow the rules — and we should enforce them. There should be no cuts in line. Moreover, hiring illegal aliens is no joking matter. Tester believes we need to enforce the law on employers who hire illegal immigrants no matter who they are. It’s not just a matter of fairness — it’s a question of national security.

    Trade

    Recent trade agreements put our jobs and the viability of family farms and ranches across Montana in jeopardy by handing off trade advantage to foreign interests. Jon Tester will fight for Montana priorities in the U.S. Senate by standing firmly opposed to unfair trade agreements that hurt our communities and way of life. While Sen. Burns voted for tax giveaways to companies that outsource American jobs, Tester will protect American jobs in the U.S. Senate.

  20. John,

    There is certainly a difference in Dems playing defense on these issues and Republicans playing offense. While there really isn’t a pro-immigration constituency to offend in Ga-8 and Ga-12, it was sufficient for Marshall and Barrow to say we’re tough as well to hold off their opponents, and voters in these districts were satisfied with that, they did not feel they needed to “send a message” by voting against candidates they might have agreed with to get different national leaders.

    Now, how do you explain Graf’s huge loss in AZ-8. Surely, if a district is more effected by illegal immigration you would be hard pressed to find it (definitely top 5) and the minuteman Tancredo candidate got waxed here.

    Just because Dems played defense and adopted some of the hard line stances of Tancredo and others doesn’t mean this is a good issue. Where Republicans tried to make immigration an issue Tancredo style they almost universally failed. How can a Republican hope to build a national partisan movement with an issue that Dem candidates can easily say “me too” on and win?

    Beat up on immigrants all you want, but voter frustration on immigration is largely economically driven (not, as many in the GOP believe national security driven). Since the GOP offers no government assistance of any merit to those who feel economically threatened by immigration, they don’t have a compelling overall narrative and message.

    Ultimately that will be Tancredo and the GOP’s problem. No one is clamoring for a strict stand on immigration + private accounts for social security, but that is what they are selling.

  21. John Konop says:

    Chris I made it clear it was candidates who ran on a combination of trade and immigration reform. Candidates like Hayworth who ran just on immigration did do bad. Yet Candidates on both sides did well who ran tough on both issues in Conservative States or districts.

    If you look at Blue Dog conservative Democrats, they are using the same message Tancredo runs on, a Lou Dobbs type platform. And once again Barrow and Marshall voted almost lock step with Tancredo on immigration and trade. The point is immigration with trade reform is about Americans not race, and most people agree with that platform.

    BTW, any State that had new get tough laws on immigration passed all over the Country from Pennsylvania to Arizona.

  22. Decaturguy says:

    According to the exit polls, 53% of Georgia voters support giving illegal immigrants the chance to become citizens (i.e. amnesty according to Republicans). Only about 30% support deporting them.

  23. John Konop says:

    ‘Attrition by Enforcement’
    Guest Column: D. A. King

    Although there has been no American president who has done less to remedy the situation than George W. Bush, the current illegal immigration crisis in the United States did not happen overnight.

    The sad reality is that it will not be solved quickly or as the result of any single action…including building a badly needed physical barrier between the U.S. and Mexico. Elected officials, pollsters and frustrated citizens need to remember this undeniable fact.

    Included in a widely publicized exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International from last Tuesday’s mid-term election was this question:

    Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:

    1) Offered a chance to apply for legal status

    2) Deported to the country they came from

    Many polls should be added to the old adage that “there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

  24. David says:

    John, no new thoughts about who’d be a good choice. We have a horribly weak bench for 08. No shining stars. Most that we’ve talked about have major weaknesses. I saw Tancredo has gotten some recognition, but I think he’s a one-trick pony (immigration) who won’t go far. Congressmen never do. And, even though I’m a Republican I would vote for DoubleDawg’s ticket in a heartbeat, though (Nunn/Miller). Two common sense kinda guys who, I believe, would do what’s right for the country above party. I like Colin Powell, but he doesn’t want it. Same for Condi. I just shudder to think of President Hillary!

  25. IndyInjun says:

    ALL who voted for the $8 trillion Medicare Drug Bill ripped asunder their pledge of fiscal responsibility to us.

    This was too big to overlook, piling another $25 thousand or so in debt on every one of us.

    Saxby won’t be reelected to the Senate, even, if this conservative can help it.

    The GOP needs to get back to its principles, not coddle those who smashed them to bits. Reforming Washington means throwing entrenched incumbents who failed the people out on their rumps.

    Saxby is an IMPOSTER as a conservative.

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