Is That Me Saying Something Not So Nice About A Republican?

Yes it is. Mac should concede. In 2002, Jim Marshall beat Calder Clay by 1500 votes and Calder concede without asking for a recount. Mac should do the same.

Erick Erickson, a Macon attorney, national political analyst and conservative blogger, put a finer point on the situation.
“I think it is ridiculous, childish behavior (not to concede),

30 comments

  1. Big Mack says:

    Who are you to be telling Mac to concede. You are not in the race and probably don’t have any money in it. When all the votes are counted we will know who the winner is. I hope that it is Mac, since Jim Marshall wouldn’t make a bump on Mac’s ass.

  2. GAWire says:

    Uh, they might not like to hear it, Erick, but what you said is true.

    And, Big Mack, you ask who is Erick to be telling Mac to concede. That’s simple … he’s a constituent, a voter, and most importantly, a Georgian; and, like the rest of us, he doesn’t want to see this futile process carrying on, particularly at taxpayers’ expense.

  3. Chris says:

    We’ve spent the last 6 years saying the democrats where a bunch of lame-assed winers for Florida ’00.

    I’m glad Allen conceeded, and Mac and Max need to do the same. In two years they can run again in a better climate with a more focused state party. If they drag this out and turn it into a media circus, then they are forever tainted by it.

  4. Big Mack says:

    Erick,

    He hasn’t lost until all the votes are counted and don’t call me a jerk. I will come to Macon and whip your ass.

  5. Erick says:

    Big Mack, first, I wasn’t calling you a jerk, I was referring to the campaign. Second, I think it’d be rather hilarious for you to come to Macon in an attempt to kick my ass. Deal with the defeat.

  6. CHelf says:

    I’m still wondering where chrishardcore, schleyguy, and me are. Hey guys, where did that 16 point lead go? I guess that “incorrect” poll was a little more correct than the one supposedly dead up huh? I guess all that expertise and insults ran down the lead some?

  7. GAWire says:

    Big Mack, Erick might not be calling you a jerk, but let’s just go ahead and assume that I am. Now, are you going to come whip my a**?

    As far as all of the votes being counted, what’s the margin again? It is essentially statistically impossible, based on the household breakdown in that District, for there to be drastic swaying towards Mac, unless there was an obsurd amount of crossovers or some other unlikely anomoly like that.

    It’s done.

  8. No, Chelf you are still a moron. An incumbent down 43-42 would not have won 51-49 on election day. Marshall’s poll, by all indications, was pretty accurate. An incumbent at 50% who ended up getting 51%. We know from the incumbent rule that most of the undecideds break for the challenger…if your poll was correct it would have been a Collins blowout.

    Now, this is what I do know, Marshall’s poll predicted African American percentage of the electorate to be around 25%. It looks like it was closer to 20% (maybe lower). That would mean that Marshall got 40% or more of the white vote. Since African American turnout will undoubtedly rebound in 2008 when Saxby and a Presidential race is on the ballot, how do the Republicans think they can win this race against a Democrat who can pull that type of share of the white vote?

  9. GaWire, Chris Farris, to answer your questions Marshall leads by about 2,000 votes with about 100 provisional ballots left to count and a theoretical 700 or so military ballots that “could” arrive today, but the nature of military absentee ballots is that most get returned in time for election day and the bulk of the remainders didn’t actually get voted by the person.

    To compare it to Gore is a little misleading. There were substantial ballot problems in Florida (for instance someone voting for Gore and then also writing in the name “Al Gore” or vice versa with Bush) where even an objective observer could say that a lot of the ballots that were thrown out deserved to be examined by hand…and 400 votes in the state of Florida is thousands of times closer than 2,000 votes in just one Congressional district.

    Mac Collins came in an embarrassing third place in the 2004 senate primary, and even though the Republicans drew a district just for him, still lose to Jim Marshall on what was a very bad day for Georgia Democrats. Time to hang it up Mac. CHelf, time to go back to writing editorials for the Houston newspaper.

  10. CHelf says:

    Undecideds break for a challenger? Where’d you get that? I’d like to see something substantive to back that up as well. I’ve never seen ANY poll where the entire undecideds broke to a challenger. This makes your case even worse since every single person who had no clue who to vote for all went for Collins. This means Marshall could do nothing to win over those people and this bodes ill for his own efforts.

    No matter how you try to spin this, Marshall’s poll was clearly way off. But as to the original issue, it’s hard to be a moron when fact and actual events back you up.

    By the way, did you ever update your website? I figured with all of this updated district talk, it would help if one preaching accurate lines had the correct ones to refer to.

    I also see no one took me up on the truth in data offer as well. I guess no one wanted definitive proof and would rather rely on something they discredit for their fact.

  11. CHelf says:

    Writing editorials? You must be confusing me with someone else. Your track record on getting things confused is getting worse. I don’t write anything in newspapers, especially one that far away.

  12. pvsys says:

    chrisishardcore:

    Prior to the election you were pretty much making fun of everyone who thought that Collins stood a chance and you did so with this academic, matter-of-fact pretense.

    But I had this “gut feeling” that you were just being a partison hack trying to discourage potential Mac supporters with very biased hackery.

    This is actually a very effective political tactic.

    For example, election day was my wife’s birthday and she happened to be very tired and not feeling well that day… and part of the reason that I dragged her to the polls is because I believed that Collins stood a good chance. Had I not believed such, my wife would have probably rested in bed while I went to vote. (Especially considering that there was no other race or ballet issue which I felt strongly about and which I thought would be “close”).

    So make no mistake… chrisishardcore’s tactics were cold and calculated.

    And given what chrisishardcore said in this thread, my “gut feelings” are now 100% confirmed… chrisishardcore is just a partison hack…. you can’t get or be more so than what he has displayed in this situation.

    Also, I don’t blame Mac for holding out if only because I could see a large percentage of outstanding military ballots going to Mac.

    Also, the comparison in that Telegraph article to George Allen’s margin in Virginia is bogus because, even though there are some large military bases in VA, the ratio of overseas (or out of state) military personal whose residence is in this district compared to the overall registered voters in this district surely far surpasses this same ratio when calcuated for the whole state of Virginia.

    So Mac is not as crazy or bullheaded as some might be inclined to believe… but, yet, I do think that it would take a small miracle to overcome 1,700 votes.

    And I might be inclined to agree with Erick if Collins asks for a recount should that margin not shrinks significantly in the next couple of days.

    But if the margin strinks considerably… things could get interesting!

    –Rob McEwen

  13. Mad Dog says:

    Erick,

    Again, hats off to you. I thought Gore should have folded his tent in 2000 ASAP. Nixon set a good example in 1960. I don’t have enough insight to either race here in Georgia to have a thoughtful opinion.

    And, I don’t know nearly enough election law to know the binding nature of a concession speech.

    I’d have a tendency to say if either man conceded now, and then a certified recount or the certified final tally made them the winner … well, … even if I didn’t like that outcome, I’d want the candidate with the most votes to take office. But, maybe that ain’t the way it works.

    So, Bush and Gore should have let Florida determine, by existing law, who won. I read portions of the Supremes Swan Song on this and it seemed to say neither had any standing to contest Florida law. Or, at least the section I was reading.

    Then, I have to be honest and say, I couldn’t walk away in a close race. So, don’t judge any of these candidates too harshly.

    And, some of us still need to grow up and act like the political process is more important than Division II college football.

  14. Mad Dog says:

    Big Mack,

    I mean this as a personal attack. Please take it that way, OK? I wouldn’t be making a personal attack if you hadn’t said, “You are not in the race and probably don’t have any money in it.”

    You think money buys something in an election? Is that the single most important thing to say about the political process?

    Let me paraphrase you in the worst light.

    “I want my f***ng money’s worth!”

    So if your guy wins, isn’t your money gone? Or, did you expect a $100,000 tax break as payback on your ‘investment?’

    Now, I don’t imagine for a moment that anyone really cares about my humble opinion in politics. I’m not anywhere near the majority opinion in this state. And, I don’t really care to be in the majority just for the heck of it.

    But, I’d bet I’m not alone in rejecting your bold public repudiation of socially acceptable behavior.

    It ain’t about the money, moron.

  15. Bill Simon says:

    Big Mack,

    What Erick DID say to you is to “Suck it…”. So, if you’re going down to Macon to find Erick to perform that type of act, tell us when so we’ll be able to tape it and re-broadcast it on YouTube.

  16. Rob,

    The (potentially) unwritten story of this election is how bad black turnout was in Georgia. Black percentage of the electorate was supposed to be around 25% in Marshall’s district, it appears (anecdotally) that it may have been as low as 18-20%.

    So, lets do some simple math:
    At 20% of the electorate being black, Marshall gets 90% of the black vote and 40.6% of the non-black (mostly white vote).

    If we were expecting 25% of the electorate to be black, Marshall’s total would have been 53% instead of 50.6%. 53% is a blowout, 50.6% is a little close.

    But the point is Marshall ran such a good campaign that even when the bottom fell out for them (black turnout being as bad as it was) they were still able to win by a pretty comfortable margin.

    Rob, I know you are not pushing a bogus poll like CHelf is, but just imagine this: the poll in which CHelf is still for some reason trying to say is accurate had Collins up 43-42 with an electorate that was 30% black. How in the world could that poll be accurate if the electorate was really 20% black and Marshall still went on to win?

    Here’s another piece of evidence that the old poll was for the old 8th district. Recall that Collins led in that poll 43-42 and that most of the undecideds (as with Marshall’s real poll) go to the challenger. Well, in Newton, Butts and Jasper, three counties that were part of the old 8th district, Marshall got 42.2% — almost exactly what that poll pegged him at. So let’s just stop the pretending now, shall we?

  17. Mad Dog says:

    Just a reminder that chrisishardcore is saying MOST of the undecideds…and chelf is saying no way ALL the undecideds … go to the challenger.

    Chelf has entertainment value but chrisishardcore has some savvy insights.

    I’m just saying I listen to the one that can read and write.

  18. DougieFresh says:

    The “fact” that most undecideds go to the challenger is a Dick Morris pipe dream. See 2004, to see how bogus that claim is.

    It is like saying the Presidential Party aloways loses seats in the 6th year (1998), or that no Republican can win the Presidency without Ohio. (Take Ohio out of all Republican victories but GW Bush’s victories and they still win).

    Speaking with certainty about conjecture only demonstrates ignorance.

  19. CHelf says:

    chrishardcore somehow pretends he knows about polling and comes up with even more flawed logic. Undecideds don’t all flock to the challenger. Not sure where you picked up that skewed info but you’re way off on that.

    You can keep assuming all day long and coming up with theories of how this data is on the old district but it is not. I’ve offered to prove this to you face to face but somehow you refuse to. This is typical of Dems who lob out attacks and when faced with the truth, they change up the story and argument to try and cover their tracks.

    Let’s look deeper into your flawed logic here. You bring up three counties that overlap the old and new districts and say because in those counties the numbers macthed the poll, somehow this automatically means the rest of the old district was mysteriously included in there based on that logic.

    We can argue your theories all day but when I can sit here and look at the actual data and see it is in the new district, I can only laugh at your assumptions. So YOU can quit pretending you actually know something about this when you clearly do not. Again, my offer stands. I am sitting on what was used and can easily map it out using simple software.

    And again, I wonder who taught you that all undecideds go to the challenger. Take some polls on the Governor’s race as an example.

  20. DougieFresh says:

    Bill, thanks. I hope I made that up, but maybe I read it somewhere and it was lingering in the back of my mind.

    Through 1000 stones, and one might be a gem.

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