GA-8: Getting To Know You

Houston County shenanigans notwithstanding, I have compiled some interesting statistics about the race between Jim Marshall and Mac Collins. Marshall’s district was greatly changed, he only retained about 50% of the original district he ran in. What was significant for Marshall was the Macon television market, where he receives lots of coverage. North Bibb voters were not in Marshall’s old district, but he may as well have been their Congressman as they constantly see him on TV and in the community serving in that capacity.

Voters in Albany and Atlanta markets were just introduced to Marshall, and they lean Republican. However, Marshall now has 2 years to “get to know” these voters through television coverage, constituent services and the general powers of incumbency. In counties in the Albany market, Collins racked up a margin of 3,625 votes over Marshall. In the 3 Atlanta counties that margin was 3,393. But in the counties that make up the Macon media market, Marshall racked up an enormous 9,025 margin. Even in Republican rich Houston county, Marshall got just shy of 46% (you will recall I said Houston’s total would be more interesting than the overall total, guess I was partly wrong).

So Republicans that want to challenge Marshall in ’08 have a dilemma: I don’t believe they can possibly do better in the Atlanta or Albany media markets after Marshall has 2 years and the power of incumbency, so it makes little sense to recruit a candidate from Newton County or Moultrie. But then again, Marshall’s standing seems to be so solidified in the Macon market that I’m not sure a Cecil Staton type can cut into it that much, and someone like that wouldn’t be able to rely on the big margins from the other parts of the district.

I give it to the Republicans, redistricting almost worked. You introduced new Republican leaning voters who weren’t familiar with Marshall and Barrow’s conservative record. But they will be. The only question is, will Republican redistrict again, or finally call it quits in what, on the Congressional level, is basically a well balanced state delegation?  (Democrats received 45% of all Congressional votes in Georgia, which translated into an almost identical 46% of Georgia’s Congressional seats.)

8 comments

  1. katurner says:

    It doesn’t look good for Mr. Mac but it won’t be over till it’s over (election is certified by SOS).

    But macontel.com says there are enough votes to negate a recount’s effect.

    I worked with some good people in the Collins campaign but they let Marshall rule the airwaves. Television and personal contacts couldn’t do it alone. I do want to see Mr. Collins run again; he got that far. What the Democrats do to the US and what happens next will tell.

    The president may give them the entitlement candy to keep them going which is a double edged sword. It can help them or make the GOPers mad and say “Oh I really do miss my party being in charge.”

    KAT

  2. Demonbeck says:

    Wow, I have heard of people blowing smoke up other people’s a$$e$, but I have never heard of someone doing it to themselves.

    You tell yourself whatever it is you need to believe chris, just don’t expect us to believe it as well.

    Jim Marshall will probably win this race, but it was close. It wasn’t close because of redistricting and it wasn’t close because of Jim Marshall’s message or record. The district should have a Republican Congressman.

    Both Marshall and Barrow, should they win, rode the coattails of national displeasure with the Bush Administration. They won’t have that working in their favor next election.

  3. DougieFresh says:

    They need to run a stringer along I-75 from South Atlanta and the add Macon to a district that it actually resembles. Take away 10K voters who vote 90 percent dem, and this district will never elect a dem again.

  4. RuralDem says:

    “Jim Marshall will probably win this race, but it was close. It wasn’t close because of redistricting and it wasn’t close because of Jim Marshall’s message or record. The district should have a Republican Congressman.

    Both Marshall and Barrow, should they win, rode the coattails of national displeasure with the Bush Administration. They won’t have that working in their favor next election. ”

    I believe with this win Congressman Marshall will be safe for years to come. Now, if he retires or seeks another office, the seat will flip. Congressman Marshall won not because of the anger with Republicans, Congressman Marshall won because the citizens of the district realize he is a perfect fit.

    It must be troubling to look at everything as Blue vs Red/ Dem vs Rep.

    So, Steve Sinton, Jim Nelson, etc…. all should have won too because of the natonal displeasure with the Bush Administration. How about quit trying to make excuses for why Collins lost? Is it really that hard to admit when a Democrat is a good fit for a district? I guess so.

  5. RuralDem says:

    Oh and I forgot to add:

    It was close due to redistricting. If Marshall still represented the previous counties he would have won against whoever ran against him in a landslide like last time.

  6. Iraqi Info Minister says:

    There won’t be a re-count.

    And I think we’ll see some very interesting things and draw some very interesting conclusions about Barrow and Marshall once we have a real sense of what the turnout was like.

Comments are closed.