GA-12: The Cracked Out Fantasies of Adolescents

I have on good word from sources close to John Barrow’s campaign that they are more than confident of pulling this one out. Effingham County was having ballot reporting problems with the secretary of state’s office, but the final vote tally that Effingham will report, with only about 150 provisional ballots left to count will show Burns carrying the county by 7933-2793. In fact, I just clicked refresh and these numbers have been reported. This gives Barrow a lead in the district of 1,073 votes. According to my sources in addition to the 150 or so provisionals in Effingham County, there are less than 50 provisional ballots left, with the majority coming from Barrow stronghold Richmond and Burns stronghold Bulloch county, so I expect that Barrow will heavily lose the Effingham ballots but break even in the remainder.

That would give Barrow a final lead of about 1,000 votes. The Burns campaign fought a hard race, and congratulations is due to them. However, without the massive assist of the Republican legislature in redrawing the district, this “rematch” would not have been close. I guess the verdict is still out on the 72 hour plan, although I’m waiting on some Republican to actually explain to me what it is because while voters broke heavily for Perdue and Cagle in this district, they also split their tickets to re-elect Barrow.

I may have more on the situation in GA-8 soon. Please stay tuned.

20 comments

  1. jsm says:

    I don’t know a whole lot about the 72 hour team, but I think the results show that non-affiliated Georgia voters are happy with their state leadership and essentially split on national politics. Congratulations are in order for the winners in GA-8 & GA-12. I’m very interested to see how they represent their districts over the next 2 years.

    We soon will find out the answer… Will Marshall vote for Pelosi for Speaker?

  2. Fogle, I am told by reputable sources that the Secretary of State’s numbers include absentee and early totals in all counties in the district. Around 200 provisional ballots are outstanding to be counted and that is all.

  3. Fogle says:

    SoS numbers show nine precincts not reporting, which would be far more than 200 total votes, and I can’t confirm anything about absentee ballots.

  4. Rick Day says:

    1. adolsecents, on the whole, do not consume ‘crack’.

    2. Using crack cocaine does not give one ‘fantasies’, except, of course, when any old crumb of bread on the floor starts to look like a dropped rock.

    3. It would have been just as trite and burn even less brain cells to use the standard prohibitionist line “What are THEY smoking?”

    If you are going to use drug-jingles, use them CORRECTLY.

    Otherwise, they just make you look…dopey.

    That is all.

  5. Sorry about my choice of words, Rick. It was a quote from a Barrow worker about the chances of that race flipping.

    Fogle, I’ve worked with vote tabulating from 2002 and 2004 from the SOS. All of the counties have at least 2 precincts that are designated for early/absentee and provisionals. I am told, reliably, by the Barrow camp that the outstanding precincts are the precinct designated as provisional for each county, and that there are around 200 provisional ballots to be counted. My prediction is this race will tighten by about another 75 votes and that will be it.

  6. Actually, Buzz, Democrats running in very heavily Republican districts like CD-8, HD-8, HD-28 and HD-29 were outspent via communications and I assume were under assault from the 72 hour plan as well.

    I question just what exactly it does if Republicans can have a pretty good day overall (and make no mistake, field alone can’t be responsible for a 20 point victory or loss) but still fail to pick up these very Republican districts.

    I guess I’m just willing to be convinced of what exactly the 72 hour plan is and does, and I haven’t seen any evidence to totally wow me yet. Clearly it either doesn’t exist or broke down completely on the national level. In specific districts where we were told of massive grassroots operations (I’m thinking Chocola in Indiana in specific) the Democrats won with a huge margin.

    So let me in on the secret. I want to know exactly how this plan works and how exactly someone like Buzz Brockway fits into it. Do you run it, implement it, blindly follow it? I’m curious.

  7. Fogle says:

    The Effingham numbers were lower than the Burns camp was hoping for, but there are still nine precincts (as you mentioned, they’re early/provisional/absentee votes) from across the district that have yet to report, so it’s still not over. They are mostly precincts that favor Burns, but whether or not there are 1,000 votes I don’t know.

    Your source may claim only 200 provisionals left to be recorded, and that may very well be, but my numbers are showing that there may be more. We’ll see.

  8. Fogle says:

    I just spoke with an official in the Burns camp and they’re still quite optimistic. They want to make sure that every vote is counted and that everything is certified before anything else happens. The way it stands now, there are still enough votes out there for Burns to win. So it will be likely be a little while longer before we have a decision.

  9. RuralDem says:

    Maybe it’s just me but why in the world would you have a press release about winning one county? Especially one that you were already pretty sure of winning.

    It’s like Sonny making a press release of him winning Houston or something.

    Who cares?

  10. Fogle says:

    RuralDem,

    The Effingham numbers had been tied up until late this afternoon due to the voting-counter problems. The result of this race will be determined by only a few hundred votes or less. and could likely hinge on those numbers. So the release was an announcement that the numbers were in, and Burns had a fantastic showing such a critical area.

  11. RuralDem says:

    I never knew that an area that a candidate is highly likely to win is considered “critical”.

    I know you’re a huge Burns fan and all Fogle but be fair. Why not mention Barrow’s “critical” victories?

  12. In 2004 Barrow got 23% in Effingham. This year he pulled down 27.

    Why you would put out a press release bragging about an area that you actually “lost” votes in is beyond me, but what else would you expect from a campaign that takes even longer to acknowledge reality than Mac Collins and Bill Hagan?

  13. Iraqi Info Minister says:

    “Our estimates are that none of them will come out alive unless they surrender to us quickly.”

  14. bird says:

    From the Burns webpage:

    “The [Effingham County] landslide in Burns’ favor all but erased a slim lead in the total district vote by incumbent Democratic Congressman John Barrow.”

    Well, wasn’t that a nice way to say after the votes came in you’re still behind.

  15. DougieFresh says:

    I bet Burns and Collins wished that there was a libertarian or independent in their races right now. The high bar that Georgia has for ballot access probably cost the Republicans those 2 seats with the majority requirement in place.

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