Bull Moose’s Predictions

Good morning and welcome to election day!

First of all, to those of you who are complaining about the robo-calls, that’s why I only have a cell phone. Follow the trend and you won’t have to worry about it!

For my predictions: Perdue wins easily and declares victory between 9:30-10 PM tonight. Casey Cagle wins earlier than that and declares victory between 9-9:30 PM. Likewise, Karen Handel will know that she is victorious around the same time (who is she running against anyway). Kathy Cox and John Oxendine also will win but those races are so far off my radar screen I almost forgot to vote in them.

Of the three, Gary Black, Brent Brown, and Perry McGuire, I think two will come so close (and demonstrate that with more money and earlier support they could have won) and one may indeed win.

We’ll have no problems with the Georgia House or Senate. The districts have been drawn to do what they are doing and that is to elect Republicans and Democrats in particular order and they will do so according to design.

Now for the fireworks! Republicans will lose A LOT of seats in the US House. I think when it is all said and done, Republicans will be sitting with anywhere from 195 to 203 seats. Hopefully, Republicans will get the message and quickly move to elect a new leadership line-up and get it’s act in order for 2008. They need to jettison obstructionists like Joe Barton from Texas who are bought and paid for by the special interests.

Georgia seems inclined to buck the trend and likely either GA 8 or GA 12 will elect a Republican to be a part of the minority. Seems like GA 12 wins that distinction.

In the Senate, I think the best case for Republicans is a 50/50 tie. Worse case scenario, it’s 51-49 for the Democrats. I find the race in Missouri particularly interesting because of the Michael J. Fox angle and the debate over stem cells.

So what does that mean? Republicans need to get with reality. Iraq is a mess and needs serious attention, not just rhetoric and platitudes. The economy may be improving, but not in a way that people are noticing. The culprit there in part is the deficit which is causing interest rates to increase. Also, as the top level of government cuts taxes (federal), other taxes and fees have gone up, like property taxes and college tuition. The party of less government and lower spending has blown the deficit out of the water. Finally, the demagoguery of moral issues has taken it’s toll. You can’t claim to be morally superior and be eyeball deep in scandal (DeLay, Ney, Foley, etc…) and you certainly can’t lie and try and cover it up and expect to have the trust of the people.

You may not like what I said, but that’s how I view things as of this morning. How do you view it. What’s going to happen and why do you think it will happen?

15 comments

  1. ugavi says:

    Bull Moose,
    I agree with your top three. Not the timing, but the results. Don’t forget that the big metro counties come in late.

    I think Gary will pull it off. Max wins and Mac loses by a hair.

  2. waterboy says:

    I’m with ugavi, but I think Mac actually gets over the hump along with Max. Gary Black has great momentum and people are excited about his campaign. Brent Brown is a great guy and could slide in to the winners circle.

  3. RandyMiller says:

    The top three yes, and I agree with ugavi re: Black, he might just pull this off.

    Also kudos for your remarks re: the party on a national level. People like Abramoff, Delay, and Foley have done more damage than a whole wing of B-52’s! And I agree re: Iraq, and that Rumsfeld has got to go!!! Maybe losing the house will be a serious wake up call for the GOP;
    that you can’t legislate morality, people have to live their own lives, and that there are pressing domestic problems that need urgent attention.

  4. debbie0040 says:

    I think the fact it is raining here is good for the GOP candidates. A lot of the Democratic base is dependent on public transportation. It rained four years ago on election day and the GOP did well.

    I think Chuck Eaton also has a chance at winning.

    Nationwide, I think we will keep the Senate and have a chance at keeping the house . It all depends on voter turnout.

    It seems all the talkd from the press and Democrats about the takeover of Congress by the Democrats has awakened some complacent GOP voters that had vowed to sit this election out. The question is whether or not it is too late.

    When your base is not motivated, two things will get them motivated. Those things are issues and fear. Maybe fear of a Democratic take over will motivate the GOP base to turn out.

    I have Libertarian friends in Tennessee and they said the Libertarians and most independent voters were voting for Corker in order to stop Ford. I think Tennessee is amust win for the Dems if they have a shot at capturing the Senate.

  5. drjay says:

    you are such a negative nelly moose–max will send barrow back to athens–mac will come close but fall short–the gop will win the guv race and 2 open seats (ltguv and sos) and probably the psc seat–irvin, baker, and thurmond will survive by comfortable margins (bakers ads have been the best of the season in my opinion)

  6. drjay says:

    as far as the national trends–the momentum in the senate races seems to have stalled for the dems–the gop will hold tenn, va and even montana and may surprise in md–the house is too close to call–there is no tidal wave brewing just a high tide thge gop will lose right around 12 seats it will be a seat or 2 one way or the other to see who controls the house

  7. DougieFresh says:

    I think the gains in the House will be about 18-19 for the Dems and 3 in the Senate. I base most of this on the assumption that Republicans under poll for a variety of reasons.

    Even the exit polls, which poll actual voters, had Kerry ahead by 2 percent, and Bush won by 2.5. It also happened with the Governor and Senate in Georgia in 2002.

    House 213.5 – 221.5 (-18.5)
    Senate 52-48 (-3)

  8. I am not as well-informed as many of you, but I will still make a few predictions:

    Key U.S. Senate Races

    TN- GOP Hold
    Montana- GOP Hold
    PA- Dem Pick-up
    RI- Dem Pick-up
    OH- Dem Pick Up
    Missouri- GOP Hold
    Maryland- Surprise GOP Pick-up
    Arizona- GOP Hold
    Michagan- Dem Hold
    New Jersey- Dem Hold
    Washington- Dem Hold
    CT- Lieberman (I) defeats Lamont (D) Independent (caucusing with the Democrats) Pick-up
    Florida- Dem Hold

    Democrats enjoy a net gain of 2 seats, but the GOP holds the Senate.

    THE HOUSE
    Democrats pick up 18 seats and gain control of the chamber.

    Key Georgia Races

    Governor- GOP Hold (no run-off required)
    Lt. Governor- GOP Pick-up
    Sec. of State- GOP pick-up
    Attorney-General- Dem Hold
    Secretary of Agriculture- Hell, let’s throw caution to the wind… GOP PICK-UP (I really love Gary Black!)
    Labor Comm.- Dem Hold
    Sec of Education- Peachtree City resident Kathy Cox will keep her job. (GOP Hold)
    Insurance Comm. – GOP Hold
    Public Service Commission- Republicans maintain control
    Supreme Court- Carol Hunstein defeats Mike Wiggins

    HOR, GA-12- MAX BURNS defeats John Barrow (GOP pick-up)
    GA-8- MAC COLLINS defeats Jim Marshall (GOP pick-up)

    State House- GOP Picks up 2-3 seats
    State Senate- No change

    Fayette County
    All Democratic candidates lose.
    U.S. Rep. Westmoreland’s margin of victory, however, will be lower than expected as a result of the chemical plant fiasco in South Fulton County.

    Athens-Clarke County- Key Races
    State Senate (Cowsert v. Kidd) GOP HOLD
    District 115- Dem Hold
    District 113- GOP Hold
    Commission- Honestly, I have no idea how these races will play out. James Garland is the only conservative candidate with a realistic chance of winning.
    Mayor- Heidi D. will face Charlie Maddox in a run-off.

  9. Bull Moose says:

    Dr. Jay I’m not a “negative nelly”, but rather looking at the state of things and seeing what looks to be real…

    I’m glad that the national infection that is hurting Republicans was kept at bay here in Georgia. We’ve got great candidates and it would be a shame if they weren’t on the ballot…

    All I can say is that if Reed and Stephens were on the ballot, Georgia would be joining the rest of the country in it’s Democratic tilt…

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