Over the past few weeks and months many people have been trying to make predictions of today’s election. I am not going to bother with this silly exercise. I don’t think that there are many people who truly have the pulse on enough races nationally to really have much insight into what is going to happen.
Instead, I am going to make some predictions as to how each party is going to spin the results, no matter what they are.
In the case that the Republicans hold the House and the Senate
Republicans: The Republicans will of course use these results as proof that they are leading the country in the right direction and that Iraq is going swimmingly.
Democrats: Expect the Democrats to quickly bring charges of voter irregularities as most people believe that there is no way that Democrats won’t gain at least the House in this election.
Reality: The Republicans have done little if anything to inspire confidence yet Democrats have campaigned on little more than “we aren’t them”. A loss for Democrats here is absolutely devastating and should lead to talks of re-inventing the party. Won’t happen though. The likely reaction will more of the same “this election was stolen” rhetoric and mass hysteria in New York and San Francisco. A loss today would hopefully lead the Democrats to dumping albatrosses like Howard Dean and Markos Moulitsas Zuniga.
A Republican win would embolden them to continue on their current course, which would pretty much guarantee a Democrat president in ’08.
In the case that the Democrats win the House but lose the Senate
Republicans: The Republicans will claim that these results were better than all the prognosticators were predicting. They will also start taking up the “bi-partisanship” mantra.
Democrats: Democrats will claim that these results prove that Republicans have been a disaster and that this is also proof that the American people want the troops out of Iraq. Expect the same mantra of bipartisanship, especially on Democratic-sponsored bills.
Reality: I see this as the most likely result today and think that it most closely represents the mood of the country. Republicans have little to show for their control of the House and really deserve a beat-down. Unfortunately, Republicans will most likely start the demogoguery and fear-mongering about how the country is now doomed that we have Speaker Pelosi and her gang in control of House committees.
Democrats will use a House takeover as proof of their ideas and will push harder against Bush and the Republicans. I fully expect them to overplay their hand and start talking “mandate”.
In the case that the Democrats win the House and the Senate
Republicans: Republicans will say that they expected this, that their are casualties in war, and that we need to “stay the course”. 🙂
Democrats: Mandate, mandate, mandate!!!
Reality:First silence from Republicans. Then the demogoguery and fear-mongering will hit the airwaves of conservative talk-radio and the conservative blogs. This will be the beginning of Culture War II.
This is the most likely scenario to lead to a Republican president in ’08.