Picks for November

The American Politic has its picks up for Georgia’s statewide races. I’ve never heard of the site before, but the guy has Peach Pundit on his blogroll — as well as Jason Pye’s site — so he can’t be all bad. Anyway, his analyses are pretty entertaining; I recommend heading over and checking ’em out.

And while you’re at it, consider this an open thread for Tuesday predictions.

23 comments

  1. Chris says:

    Erick made predictions too in today’s Telegraph.

    I think it’s an attempt to mobilize local voters more than any kind of informed prediction. “Control of Congress boils down to GA-12/GA-8.” If it does, you can be sure those attempting to wrest control from the republicans will respond accordingly.

    This country is going over a very steep cliff under single party control, and the entire country recognizes it.

  2. landman says:

    I think Erick is correct,Georgia will be on alot of peoples mind all day Tuesday.

    Here is my predictions Sonny,Casey ,and Max win and the US House goes Dem and the Senate stays Republican.

    The Ga. House and Senate remain Republican,on the down ballot races I see Handel easily winning the SOS race and while I hope we pull off at least one of the other races its too close to call,but if my vote decides it we win!!!!!

  3. Carpe Forem says:

    Are you going to have an open forum for the US Senate and House races? I’ve got my picks ready and they’re burning a hole in my pocket.

  4. Mad Dog says:

    Jeff Emanuel,

    What do you think about all the predictions that the election will be decided by who turns up at the polls?

    Personally, I hope voters show up.

  5. Jeff Emanuel says:

    Mad Dog, rumor has it that’s how the system is supposed to work.

    We’ll see — but I’m going on record as saying that if enough people vote for one person that they have more votes than the person they’re running against, well, that first person will likely win.

  6. Bull Moose says:

    I see Georgia being one of the FEW bright spots in the country for Republicans.

    Right now, I think there is a trend where Perdue will win without a runoff, however, I get a feeling that Democrats are going to be coming home and the race will be closer than anyone expects.

    Casey Cagle will become the first Republican Lt. Governor since Reconstruction. His sincere and dedicated character will ensure that our State Senate is capably lead in the right direction. He will be a breath of fresh air for all those that are becoming dissafected with politics like me.

    Karen Handel will beat whomever it is that she’s running against. Karen overcame one of the nastiest personally destructive primary campaigns ever waged in Georgia. Hopefully, our state will never see anything like that again.

    Gary Black has earned my respect and my vote and I’d like to think that he’s done that across the state. At first, I doubted his dedication, but he works hard and he’s a heck of a nice guy.

    Perry McGuire and Brent Brown have also worked hard and shown great qualities on the trail, but unseating Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond is a hard task. I think either they both win or they both lose.

    I hear that there is an incumbent running for State School Superintendent and her name is Kathy Cox. Funny, you don’t hear too much about her out there. Nor for that matter, do you hear anyone out there talking about John Oxendine, who by the way, is running a great media campaign… Reminds me of the Coverdell 1998 ads.

    Anyway, I do not know about GA 8 or 12. I know that I’m glad that Max Burns went positive in the closing days. He had been running a horrible campaign. I think the fact that he went positive is why his numbers are moving up recently.

    I’d say, Burns wins and Collins loses.

    In 2008 it’s Jim Marshall versus Saxby Chambliss for the Senate. If Marshall loses then it might be Thurbert Baker versus Saxby Chambliss.

    Gosh and guess what, 2010 is right around the corner… What will being in the minority do to Jack Kingston, Lynn Westmoreland, John Linder, Charlie Norwood, and so forth… Will any of them retire? I mean, with the exception of Westmoreland, the rest have been there now for over 10 years.

  7. defnotrep says:

    Carpe Forem,

    I pretty much agree with your House races. We are only differing by a few. Here they are:

    OH 2 – Schmidt R
    CO 4 – Paccione D (altho will be close)
    IL 06 – Toss-Up

  8. buzzbrockway says:

    Here’s what’s going to happen:

    1) Perdue, Cagle, Handel, Oxendine and Wise win easily.
    2) Two of these four will win: McGuire, Brown, Black or Eaton.
    3) Burns wins
    4) Collins gets close but does not win.
    5) Hunstein wins.
    6) GOP keeps majorities in the US House and Senate.

  9. Jeff Emanuel says:

    I’ll agree with Buzz on everything except for Perdue. He wins, but not quite as “easily” as previously thought.

    He’s not in danger by any means, though.

  10. Chris says:

    Oh this is rich! Southern Party of Georgia has endorsed the following candidates:

    Gov: Mark Taylor
    Lt. Gov: Casey Cagle
    SoS: Handel
    School Super: Denise Majette
    Ag Com: Irvin
    AG: McGuire

    Ye olde GOP smells like toast. Totally.

  11. waterboy says:

    Moose –

    You stated, “Gary Black has earned my respect and my vote and I’d like to think that he’s done that across the state. At first, I doubted his dedication, but he works hard and he’s a heck of a nice guy.”

    I’m glad you finally came around on Gary Black. With that, I agree with your predictions….except I’m not ready to say the House flips.

  12. Jeff Emanuel says:

    Interesting. Black was a “liberal lobbyist” during primary and runoff time. What does this mean for greater Republican support for him among those who didn’t offer it during the primary or during his 20-point runoff win?

    He’ll obviously need all the support he can get come tomorrow, so it’s interesting to see staunch opponents like Bull backing him strongly.

  13. Carpe Forem says:

    Here they are:
    I suffer from the same ailment that most libertarians have, focusing on federal elections/politics and not enough on local issues. I plan to change for future election cycles. I have come to believe that grassroots change is the key to future national influence. That being said, here are my predictions:

    US HOUSE:
    Prediction
    TX-22: Open (DeLay) D if winner takes all, R If run-off, I’m hoping/working for L.
    AZ-8: Open (Kolbe) D
    FL-16: Open (Foley) D
    IN-8: Hostettler D
    PA-10: Sherwood D
    CO-7: Open (Beauprez) D
    OH-18: Open (Ney) D
    PA-7: Weldon D
    NY-24: Open (Boehlert) D
    IA-1: (Open (Nussle) D
    NC-11: Taylor D
    NM-1: Wilson D
    IN-2: Chocola D
    OH-15: Pryce D
    NY-26: Reynolds R–keeps
    IN-9: Sodrel Und
    CT-4: Shays D
    PA-6: Gerlach D
    IL-6: Open (Hyde) D
    MN-6: Open (Kennedy) R-keeps
    FL-13: Open (Harris) D
    CT-2: Simmons Und
    WA-8: Reichert R-keeps
    CT-5: Johnson D
    NH-2: Bass R-keeps
    AZ-5: Hayworth Und—- biggest surprise
    OH-1: Chabot D
    NY-20: Sweeney D
    FL-22: Shaw D
    CT-2: Simmons Und
    OH-2: Schmidt Und
    WA-8: Reichert R-keeps
    WI-8: Open (Green) D
    VA-2: Drake R-keeps
    NY-25: Walsh R-keeps
    CO-4: Musgrave R-keeps
    KY-4: Davis Und
    PA-8: Fitzpatrick Und
    AZ-1: Renzi R-keeps
    NV-2: Open (Gibbons) R-keeps
    CA-11: Pombo D Abramoff continues to hurt R’s
    NY-29: Kuhl D
    NY-19: Kelly Und
    KY-3: Northup D
    CA-4: Doolittle R-keeps
    PA-4: Hart R-keeps
    NV-3: Porter R-keeps
    NJ-7: Ferguson R-keeps
    MN-1: Gutknecht R-keeps
    ID-1: Sali Und— Where’s the LP here!
    GA-12: Barrow Und— Maybe R’s get one back here.
    GA-8: Marshall D-keeps
    IL-8: Bean D-keeps
    VT-AL: Open (Sanders) D-keeps
    IA-3: Boswell D-keeps
    IN-7: Carson Und

    Dems +26-32 Net increase. This is higher than my “gues-timate” of +20 to 23.

    US SENATE

    Prediction
    MO: Talent (R) D
    MT: Burns (R) Und –Watch VA, where it goes, MT goes, US goes.
    VA: Allen (R) Und –See above.
    MD: Open (D) D-keeps –Close, but the tin-man rust just prior to the finish line.
    NJ: Menendez (D) D-keeps –A Made Man?
    RI: Chafee (R) D –I don’t buy the current Mason/Dixon.
    AZ: Kyl (R) R-keeps –but one to watch, if you’re still up.
    TN: Open (R) R-keeps –should have kept everyone on the bus… less got back on than got off at Corker’s press conference.
    MN: Open (D) D-keeps
    MI: Stabenow (D) D-keeps
    PA: Santorum (R) D
    OH: DeWine (R) D
    WA: Cantwell (D) D-keeps
    CT: Lieberman (I) D- keeps –I wonder if he would switch to R if circumstances are right, ….nah!

    Dems +5 to 7, Virginia, Virginia, Virginia

    Well, there it is. Sorry, I took up so much space. Just wanted to let those that agree or disagree to be able to be race specific.

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