The Endangered GOP

I was asked in a comment thread which Republicans I thought were endangered in the Georgia House or Georgia Senate. I think there are a few of them we should pay attention to. I think an early warning indicator for Mac Collins, in fact, could be if some of the state legislative candidates are getting crushed. It would suggest to me that the ground game was not, in fact, firing on all cylinders.

In the House, I think Allen Freeman is the most endangered. In 2004, he only won by about 80 votes. That said, both publicly and privately he has a sizable percentage of the Democrat leaders in his district supporting him. I would expect him to win, but it could be close. Steve Tumlin won his race with 53.5% of the vote, which was less than 1000 votes cast. Harry Geisinger was in a similar situatlon as Tumlin, however, given the dynamics in his race, I think he’s safe. HD-82 is Paul Jennings seat, but Jennings is retiring and the seat leans slightly Democrat. They could very well pick this up, handing the seat to Kevin Levitas.

On the Senate side, I think the most endangered Republican is Johnny Grant in District 25. He beat Faye Smith by 52% in 2004 and is having a street fight this year. I think he’ll win, but like with Freeman, it will be close. The Democrats have been attacking him over the insurance votes on mammograms. John Bulloch will be close this year. He won with only 53.2% in 2004, but I actually think the trends in his district make him safe.

All in all, I actually expect the GOP to pick up a couple of seats in the House and probably hold steady in the Georgia Senate — though they may lose one. This is all to say I expect little excitement in the legislative races here and no turn over of either House.

Editorial Note:Tumlin is unopposed. The thunder rolls.

21 comments

  1. LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

    Perhaps Nancy Schaefer, Johnny Grant, Bulloch, and BKemp’s open seat. Too bad for Johnny Grant because I think he’s a decent principled guy.

  2. SB 174 original Senate version that includes sections that were later stripped out in the House.

    Brian Kemp’s seat is in serious danger of slipping into GOP hands, as is Nancy Schaefer’s as well.

    In the House, be prepared for some metro Atlanta surprises. I’m not sure they will happen, but if there is a wave it will affect the races where partisanship is the biggest driver and where the people are even more likely than average not to know who their state senator or representative is.

    Congressional predictions: Marshall wins early, if you want to enjoy yourself on election night in this district a better wager would be who wins Houston County not who wins the district. Barrow has another close race, because of redistricting, but still pulls it out.

    Here’s a good question, which Republican held Congressional seat will have the closest margin of victory? I predict Westmoreland. I haven’t seen his TV ads, much of the district is new to him and this is not a good year to be a Republican running for Congress.

  3. Rpolitic says:

    Just to be clear Tumlin is unopposed this year and “if I lose than I have real problems” is what he told me at the Governor’s rally in Kennesaw

    Watch steve thompson’s seat. He is on the ropes and starting to lash out at any and all around him. Even to the point of trying to weasel out of his record of voting to give illegal’s a driver’s license. Then to top it off he accused Mark Grant of kicking kids off peachcare. Internal polls show the race as tight as can be against a long term Democrat. And now the party, caucus and Governor’s campaign have all targeted this seat as well as Cindye Coates v Terry J0hnson. This is where there could be some real fun to watch.

    And just think if the trend holds then the last remnants of the “conservative Roy Barnes Ds” will be gone except for Don Wix

  4. LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

    Everybody seems to be missing the point of SB174. It’s intention is to provide another option to health policies that contain all of the mandated benefits. Employers and insurers are still required to offer a policy with all of the mandates. This bill does not repeal any mandates, it just allows stripped down policies to be offere in addition to the fully mandated policies:
    33-59-4.
    (a) Notwithstanding any other provision of law and on and after July 1, 2005:
    (1) Any insurer authorized to transact business in this state offering group accident and sickness policies or contracts shall be required to offer, through a licensed agent or agency, a group health benefit plan that contains all state mandated health benefits and may offer a group alternative health benefit plan as defined in this chapter; and
    (2) Any insurer authorized to transact business in this state offering individual accident and sickness policies or contracts shall be required to offer, through a licensed agent or agency, an individual health benefit plan that contains all state mandated health benefits and may offer an individual alternative health benefit plan as defined in this chapter.
    (b) On and after July 1, 2005, an employer who chooses to offer group health benefit plans to its employees shall offer to each eligible employee a group health benefit plan that contains all state mandated health benefits and may offer to each eligible employee a group alternative health benefit plan as defined in this chapter.

  5. Thunder says:

    With apologies to Mark Twin, my “endagerment” has been exaggerated in House District 38 race and also not recognized by the Cobb Democrats with no opposition coming forth. I am happy to report that this is a non contested race and I eagerly look forward to 2 more years to represent my Republican party and Marietta, Cobb County, Georgia. Thanks to “Rpolitic” for alerting me at the Kennesaw Governor’s rally in Kennesaw this morning as to my possible demise in an uncontested race. Enjoy your Web Page! Appreciate any press! Thanks, Rep. Steve”Thunder” Tumlin.

  6. That’s because there isn’t a good explanation. Mandates make up what 5% or 10% of health care costs and they are there for a reason, it is just not sane to have a health care policy (other than just catastrophic care) that doesn’t cover this stuff. It’s irresponsible to allow people to remove themselves from risk pools for things like breast cancer because such a high percentage of the population gets it really no one has concrete information about whether they actually need that coverage or not.

    Now as for Thunder, as long as he remembers to vote for himself I think he will win. Can’t imagine Thompson will lose, and my God if you think Cyndie “C-Biscuit” Coates is good for the Republicans in Cobb County go ahead and vote for her and watch the entire county go to the Democrats after two years of her craziness.

    Peace out homies.

  7. me says:

    Hey, I just want y’all to know that the tracking numbers from the Democratic 64-hour program are amazing, I’m hearing from vague and unspecified people “in the know” on both sides of the aisle.

    Don’t ask me who, but they say it looks real good. More in a bit.

  8. me says:

    Hey, great news Dems! The 49.5-hour tracking numbers are trickling in from my double-secret sources in the national media, and things are looking better and better.

    Nancy Pelosi is still losing to both Burns and Collins, but Barrow and Marshall are doing extra fine!

  9. debbie0040 says:

    Cindye Coates is one of the hardest working campaigners that I have seen in a long time. She will be great if elected.

    Hopefully we will be able to say goodbye to Steve Thompson and Roy Barnes cousin, Terry Johnson.

  10. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Johnny Grant is, in my opinion, one of the most principled kindhearted legislators to serve. He has been an excellent leader and a commonsense conservative who puts people above politics.

  11. Chris says:

    Speaking of foot-in-mouth disease, how do you treat somebody who puts nuclear secrets on the web for general public access, then celebrates their posting as proof of Iraq’s (pre-1991) WMD programs?

  12. kevin35 says:

    Now not to be bragging or cheering from the stands, since you know my dad Charlie and I never brag. It is a bad sign to brag, now this story may mean more people came out to vote for me or I may have read my obituary two days before election day. Now for those who may not have seen my online profile in the AJC let me paste it. For those who did not know I had a birthday this week on Nov 2 and we know 2 years ago what happened on my Bday. Bush was elected to serve 4 more years and this year even though I will be 5 days older on election day maybe I can pull one out. Unless my tires fall off while banging my signs in the ground the old fashioned way with wooden stakes, than this will be my last election post. I would like to say thank you for giving my web page the highest hits, for some odd reason The Peach Pundit had close to 45% of my hits. I thank you very much for putting up with me and here is to Karen Handel pulling it out. By the way do you think everyone should look up to Hank Hill and I did get an A on my NRA scorecard.

    Kevin M. Bailey (Democrat)

    Age (as of Nov. 7): 36

    Education: High school and some college.

    Profession: Tech/sales

    Residence: Woodstock

    Family: Engaged

    What experience will help you in this job?
    Leadership and working as a team player.

    What issue got you into this race?
    Helping my district cope with the growth, while working with the local school board, DOT, public safety and other local agencies.

    Which current television character do you identify most with, and why?
    Hank Hill, the starring character of “King of the Hill.” Hank stands up for his country and defends his rights. Hank Hill has a good family bond.

    What gadget or device have you bought recently that you can’t live without?
    Cellphone

    Web site: http://www.kevinforhd22.com

    E-mail: [email protected]

    Official: Absentee, advance voting strong

    Sunday, November 5, 2006 3:06 AM EST
    E-mail this story | Printable Version From staff reports

    Cherokee County officials are predicting Tuesday’s general election will draw more voters than the primaries.

    Janet Munda, elections supervisor for Cherokee County, said she expects to see 35 percent of the county’s more than 113,000 registered voters turn out. Interest has been strong for both absentee and advance voting, she said.

    Voters at Cherokee’s 44 precincts Tuesday will decide both local and statewide races in the general election.

    Republican Sean Jerguson of Holly Springs faces Democrat Kevin Bailey of Woodstock in the state House District 22 race to serve the area stretching from Sixes south to Woodstock.

    Voters also will decide the state’s Sixth Congressional District race between incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell) and Democratic challenger Steve Sinton of Marietta. The district includes all of Cherokee as well as portions of Cobb, DeKalb and Fulton counties.

    Cherokee voters will vote in statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, supreme court justice, attorney general, labor commissioner, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner and public service commissioner.

    Jack Cashin of Cherokee County is the libertarian candidate for agriculture commissioner and faces Democrat incumbent Tommy Irvin and Republican nominee Gary Black.

    The Cherokee County School District Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax renewal is on the ballot as are three state constitutional amendments and six statewide referenda.

    Ball Ground and Holly Springs residents will decide council races as well.

    The race in Ball Ground is for the Post 1 City Council seat between incumbent Andi Stoner and challenger Jennifer Thompson.

    Holly Springs voters will elect two of the three candidates running for City Council. The at-large race is between incumbents Councilwoman Dee Phillips, Councilman Tommy Sanders and Jeff Carroll.

  13. GOPeach says:

    Hey Chris,

    Your Roy-Boy Terry Johnson is about
    to get publically blasted!!

    Just found out that Terry Johnson
    has filed multiple homestead exepmtions
    on his rental properties and he has avoided
    paying taxes on others.

    I have seen his “rental houses”. This guy
    is a slum lord!

    Now who do you think is “crazy”?

    Cindye Coates has more class and
    intergrity than anyone you will ever
    know. I know her well and you obviously
    do not!

    I showed her what you posted about
    her and she said that she would pray
    for you.

    See what I mean.

  14. Jeff says:

    Two tips for the GOP, if you all plan to gain some seats back in ’08: drop the evangelical thing…it makes the GOP look irrational and incompetent. Stop pandering to the President: ditto. Stop taking the “My way or the highway” approach to public policy…politics is the art of comprimise. Consider the fact the President Bush probably should be, or by the ’08 election…should have been, impeached or censured. Most importantly though…become Democrats

  15. GOPeach says:

    Jeff-

    I think you greatly underestimate the
    power of the CONSERVATIVE
    REPUBLICAN CHRISTIANS …

    They will organize all over again
    now that they actually have to …
    and they shall be a force to reckon with.

    There is no dropping any thing Jeff –
    THIS IS AMERICAN —
    one nation UNDER GOD!

    Like it or leave.

    The US Constitution states that
    we have freedom OF RELIGION not
    freedom FROM it-

    We the PEOPLE of FAITH are not
    going anywhere…

    We will see how long Peloci
    lasts with her arrogance and her
    immasculating tone.

    She will make eunichs out of the
    majority. They will not be able to
    reproduce and then she will be
    replaced in ’08 by real men and
    ladies who will govern with grace.

    You will see.

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