I was asked in a comment thread which Republicans I thought were endangered in the Georgia House or Georgia Senate. I think there are a few of them we should pay attention to. I think an early warning indicator for Mac Collins, in fact, could be if some of the state legislative candidates are getting crushed. It would suggest to me that the ground game was not, in fact, firing on all cylinders.
In the House, I think Allen Freeman is the most endangered. In 2004, he only won by about 80 votes. That said, both publicly and privately he has a sizable percentage of the Democrat leaders in his district supporting him. I would expect him to win, but it could be close.
Steve Tumlin won his race with 53.5% of the vote, which was less than 1000 votes cast. Harry Geisinger was in a similar situatlon as Tumlin, however, given the dynamics in his race, I think he’s safe. HD-82 is Paul Jennings seat, but Jennings is retiring and the seat leans slightly Democrat. They could very well pick this up, handing the seat to Kevin Levitas.
On the Senate side, I think the most endangered Republican is Johnny Grant in District 25. He beat Faye Smith by 52% in 2004 and is having a street fight this year. I think he’ll win, but like with Freeman, it will be close. The Democrats have been attacking him over the insurance votes on mammograms. John Bulloch will be close this year. He won with only 53.2% in 2004, but I actually think the trends in his district make him safe.
All in all, I actually expect the GOP to pick up a couple of seats in the House and probably hold steady in the Georgia Senate — though they may lose one. This is all to say I expect little excitement in the legislative races here and no turn over of either House.
Editorial Note:Tumlin is unopposed. The thunder rolls.