The 48 percent turnout prediction is in the typical range for a gubernatorial election year. It’s less than the 54 percent who showed up for the 2002 elections, but more than the 46 percent casting ballots in 1998.
The biggest turnout in Georgia history was the 2004 presidential election when almost 78 percent of the state’s registered voters cast ballots. Presidential elections historically draw more voters to the polls.
The turnout prediction is based on historical trends, absentee ballot requests, new voter registrations and reports from county elections officials across the state, according to a statement issued by Secretary of State Cathy Cox’s office
The ubiquitous Matt Towery weighs in:
Towery said a turnout of less than 50 percent has historically worked against Republicans, though he’s not sure that’s true anymore. Another unknown factor will be the strength of the African-American vote, which typically supports Democrats.
“If those two rules of thumb were to continue to be in play, it would tell us that the races that we’re going to see next week could potentially be closer than everyone might at first imagine,” said Towery.