It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over…

…or so said Yogi Berra.  National Journal says this…

Do You Guys Know Something We Don’t?
     Time‘s Allen blogs, Bush, Cheney, and WH Dep. CoS Karl Rove “are all over the airwaves predicting that, against the apparent odds, the GOP will keep both houses of Congress.” And WH officials say that “this is not just cheerleading — that they have five good reasons to think” this prediction might become a reality:

  • No GOPer “is being taken by surprise, unlike many” Dems in ’94. According to one official, GOP officials deliberately “scared” lawmakers, telling them: “You face a very tough road. You better be ready.”
  • “Absentee ballot requests and returns, closely tracked by the party, are meeting or exceeding past levels” for GOPers in key states and districts.
  • When the nat’l parties, nat’l campaign cmtes, state “victory” cmte accounts “and competitive campaigns are added up,” GOPers “maintained a substantial financial advantage” over Dems at the last filing period.
  • According to GOPers, “the district-by-district playing field favors them in several structural ways not reflected in national polls.” The GOP’s thinking: “There are 41 districts held by a Democrat that Bush carried, and 14 seats held by Republican that Kerry carried, so we’re fighting on better turf. You see it in the open seats, where Bush carried 18 of the Republican open seats and Kerry carried two. So we’re fighting on better turf.”
  • The GOTV machine designed by Rove and Mehlman in ’01 was dubbed the “72-hour” program, “but officials say that’s quite a misnomer and that it’s really a 17-week or even two-year program” (“The Allen Report,” Time.com, 10/31).

34 comments

  1. Bull Moose says:

    Well, I have the feeling Karl and Co. are going to be the ones surprised on election day and I say that as a devout Republican.

    In GA we can be proud that Sonny Perdue is leading the ticket to victory.

    2008 is just around the corner. Do I hear Jim Marshall getting ready to run against Saxby Chambliss?

    Which newly elected statewide office holder will form a PAC and begin to seed the ground in preparation for 2010?

  2. Demonbeck says:

    Don’t look now, but the Republicans are coming back in the polls.

    Did the DCCC blow its load too early with the Foley scandal?

  3. buzzbrockway says:

    I agree with this assessment. Believe me, there is plenty going on at the grassroots level (in Georgia and many other States), that doesn’t get much notice but is crucial to winning elections.

    If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the GOP maintaining control of both Houses of Congress.

  4. Republican are in trouble nationally in districts that normally perform well for Democratic candidates but since 1994 or so have been represented by moderate Republicans. The 72 hour plan was in full effect in 2004, and Bush either lost or barely won most of these competitive districts.

    Considering that the 72 hour plan, if it even really exists is set to motivate base voters, I don’t see how you could outperform the 2004 performance when it was battle for civilization with Bush as the good guy and Kerry as the evil one.

    Sure, these people may still vote, but it is nearly impossible for them to be as rabidly pro-GOP as they were in 2004 and moderates, who I believe the 72 hour plan has a harder time persuading because of the focus of on fear, and quite frankly with Iraq that just doesn’t cut in their favor anymore.

    I don’t see any evidence that things are shifting back. Absentee ballot turnout may be up, but again you can know who returns an absentee ballot but you can’t be certain how they are going to vote. I think most of the GOP boosterism is just the establishment worried that the floor could completely fall out so they’re trying to project some kind of confidence to make sure that people in places like Idaho and Nebraska still show up.

  5. John Konop says:

    I think Rush hurt the GOP in swing areas. The fox comment is not playing well. Stem cell was not a big winner for the GOP and now we look mean.

    The more Rush talks about Fox . the deeper we sink.

  6. GAWire says:

    Firstly, we knew the numbers were going to get closer as we get closer to ED. Now, I’m not saying its impossible, but I am saying that it is indeed unlikely we will keep the House. I’ve been saying all along though, that it won’t be a blow-out as many Dems and media thought. It will come down to the wire. I can tell you that the 72 hour victory program is good and of course its much more than three days b/f ED. That will be the reason that it will be so close. I should also point out that these people out there talking about how the GOP is winning on early voting is a BAD thing.

  7. defnotrep says:

    I agree with you John Konop. I think Rush has personally lost the Repubs MO.

    I predict Dems take House and Senate.

  8. Bill Simon says:

    I think the GOP keeps both houses, no problem.

    Do note that I will be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong, because the ONLY way to clean-up the GOP garbage in Congress is for one of the houses to fall in the hands of the Dems.

    But, the Dems have nothing to offer America to contrast themselves with the GOP. Whatever they claim, there is someone, somewhere in the past who was in office as a Dem and was caught in a line of lying and corruption.

    Too bad the Dems didn’t come-up with a real plan like the GOP did in 1994.

  9. Jeff Emanuel says:

    Bill, here’s where you and I part ways in your first statement (second paragraph): I think we hold the houses here, and then clean up the leadership in January.

    Should the GOP hang on to both — and I think that they likely will — there will not be a third chance in 2008.

  10. defnotrep says:

    jeff, dnr stands for defintely not republican…just so you know. I’ll write later going to dinner now.

  11. Mad Dog says:

    I’m not hoping for Christmas in November.

    I’d like to see clear victory in each race. Not a DEM victory or a GOP. Just a clear margin that pre-empts a re-count.

    I’d love to see long lines at the polls and smiling faces because the line moved smoothly.

    I’d hate to hear any reports of machine errors or absentee ballots being found in dumpsters behind Wal-Mart.

    I’d want to see the losers make speeches about the hard work and professionalism of their staffs and supporters.

    I don’t want to see any of the winners dance the Snoopy Happy Dance on TV.

    Any one else have a Christmas in November wish?

  12. Bill Simon says:

    I hope some of the Playboy Bunnies have their limo breakdown in front of my house in November…and, since I’m Jewish, I’ll hope for 8 of them for a Hanukkah in November wish. 🙂

  13. Bull Moose says:

    I don’t know what you folks have been smoking, but look at the polls…

    Democrats are poised to win the HOUSE at a minimum and likely will take the Senate too…

    I don’t think you can underestimate the sentiment out there of frustration with Republican voters.

    It’s not enough that candidates just have an R by their name, they actually have to do something while in office.

    Oh, and note to 2008, if you thought stem cell research was hot this year, it’s going to be a crucial issue in 2008.

  14. RuralDem says:

    I think the Democrats will takeover the House but the Republicans will keep the Senate.

    I see the following in regards to the “highly contested” races in the Senate:

    OH – Brown wins (Dem Pickup)
    MN – Klobuchar wins (Dem Hold)
    RI – Chafee wins (GOP Hold)
    CT – Lieberman wins (Indy! really Dem Hold)
    MD – Cardin wins (Dem Hold)
    TN – Corker wins (GOP Hold)
    MO – McCaskill wins (Dem Pickup)
    VA – Allen wins (GOP Hold)

    I also think the Democrats will narrowly control the House instead of the supposedly big 30+ wave that some people are throwing out there. A narrow victory is fine with me since it will allow the Blue Dogs to flex their muscle.

  15. Mad Dog says:

    John Konop,

    Hugo Chavez has become a capitalist?

    Castro is back from the death bed. Again.

    Next thing you know, the Gold Club will re-open in Cobb County with Bill Simon as the manager.

    I think the rumor of Chavez owning one company that makes voting machines is just a rumor at this point. An interesting one. Could it be he plans on outsourcing his next election? Or, should I join a conspiracy group and allege Hugo is electing the GOP for two more years?

    Back to the point of this thread:

    GOP holds on by a thread.

  16. defnotrep says:

    Jeff Emanuel,

    I could list you all the seats in the House. I’ve looked at all the races. It’s not an over exaggeration. You will see Nov 8.

    I will put a caveat on the Senate….. Rhode Island. Chafee just put up a great ad. Altho he’s far behind at this point, it’s possible this ad could turn some folks around. If I lived there, I would vote for him.

  17. defnotrep says:

    Jeff Emanuel,

    I agree with you that Chafee’s probably done. I just feel kind of bad for him.

    No problem on disagreeing…..makes it interesting.

  18. defnotrep says:

    Bill Arp,

    I know some don’t agree but Jim Webb is really impressive. Check him out on YouTube. He’s quite accomplished.

    He won the Navy Cross in Viet Nam. I think, this is the highest medal the Navy gives.

    He’s a scholar and very articulate.

Comments are closed.