Peach Pundit Plays National Pundit

Bull Moose here.  Thought I’d throw it up to the Peach Pundit crowd to play “National Pundit” to some of the other races… I’ll start.

Currently, Republicans hold a 55-45 advantage in the Senate.  I predict that after November 7, the Senate will be even-steven 50-50.  Republicans will lose Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri, Ohio, and Rhode Island.  It may get worse, Virginia could also fall, but I’m not ready to call it.  And Tennessee is just too close to tell which way it’s going. Stem Cell Research is the surprise issue coming out of the 2006 Senate races in my book. 

On the House side, currently, Republicans have a 232-203 majority.  After the elections, on a small breeze I think it’s 226-209 in favor of Democrats.  A moderate breeze produces a Democratic majority of 233-202.  You can do the math from there.  Notables losing reelection include: Deborahy Pryce, Chris Shays, Heather Wilson, Charles Taylor…

What are your predictions fellow Peach Pundits? 

29 comments

  1. JRM2016 says:

    GOP wins in Missouri too, making it 51-49.

    GOP barely maintains control with 218 House seats, Dems get 217. Heather Wilson wins (have you seen the new ad she is running with footage from their debate?); Charles Taylor beats the Redskins loser; Shays also holds on; Pryce probably loses. This assumes we will see a surge in the final stretch due to GOP money advantage and the 72 hour juggernaut.

  2. Ben Marshall says:

    Senate will be 51 Rep., 47 Dem, and 2 Indy’s (Liberman and Sanders). ‘

    I think the Dems take a lead in the house b y 10 seats or fewer.

  3. Ben Marshall says:

    When it comes to the Senate, I think Republicans will hold onto Missouri, barely keep VA, and they will take TN. If they lose TN, then it will be worse than we all expected, and they will lose more seats and therefore the Senate.

  4. Fogle says:

    My predictions on the Senate:

    Connecticut – Independent gain
    Maryland – Democrat hold
    Missouri – GOP hold
    Montana – Democrat gain
    New Jersey – GOP gain
    Ohio – Democrat gain
    Pennsylvania – Democrat gain
    Rhode Island – Democrat gain
    Tennessee – GOP hold
    Virginia – GOP hold

    That means I’m calling the 110th Senate at 52 R – 46 D – 2 I

  5. defnotrep says:

    Fogle, I’d say wishful thinking.

    Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Virginia go to the Dems.

    I’d say Tenn stays Repub

  6. Fogle says:

    defnotrep,

    Are you serious about Missouri and Virginia?

    George Allen is an institution in Virginia and not even “Macaca-gate” can sink him. Virginia is a red state and Webb is a terrible candidate, especially in light of the graphic novels.

    In Missouri, Talent is a little less safe, but McCaskill is also a really crappy candidate. Missouri is a swing state so it could go with the so-called “anti-GOP tide,” but Talent has been gaining some serious ground of late.

    I will give you that maybe my call in New Jersey is wishful thinking… but I seriously think that with Menendez’s corruption probe and Kean’s solid standing in the state, the GOP can certainly pull it off. And they know it. They’ve been pumping some big money into this race. Menendez can only lose ground and Kean can only gain ground so I’m going to be bold and call it as a GOP gain.

  7. defnotrep says:

    I like Kean but he won’t win.

    George Allen is done…definitely won’t win.

    Webb is a great candidate. Check him out on YouTube.

    McCaskill will win only slightly…stem cell being the difference.

    That’s my predictions.

  8. defnotrep says:

    Actually Fogle, Webb is best candidate I’ve seen by either party since Reagan.

    Just like Reagan had Democrats for Reagan.

    Webb will have Republicans for Webb.

  9. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Republicans maintain Senate.

    Lose House, but only by a few seats. Either Mac or Max win…Not both, probably Max. Marshall is to hard to beat.

  10. Fogle says:

    defnotrep,

    About Webb: you’re out of your mind.

    About the House: you’re out of your mind. If the GOP loses the House (which I don’t think we will b/c I honestly don’t see us losing more than 10-12 seats) it will certainly not be by those kinds of numbers. If Dems can keep it together for another 7 days and somehow hold on to pull away the House, there’s no way in hell that Republicans lose any more than 20 seats… much less 35.

    I would like to see you find any serious pollster/pundit/etc. who would back up your prediction that the GOP will lose 35 seats in the House.

  11. defnotrep says:

    Fogle,

    Let’s make a bet. Dems maybe pick-up even more in the House. I gave them some toss-ups that are dead heats right now.

    In the count, I have Marshall winning and Barrow losing. Barrow is still a toss-up though.

  12. defnotrep says:

    What I meant to say is I gave the Republicans some toss-ups in their numbers that are dead heats right now.

  13. kspencer says:

    I think the Dems will end up with at least a ten-seat majority in the house.

    I think the Senate is going to be 50R-49D-1I, (Lieberman loses). If I’m off, it’ll be underestimating the D pickup with a result of 49R-50D-1I.

    Kirk

  14. Jace Walden says:

    Republicans will maintain majorities in both houses of Congress.

    Mac Collins and Max Burns will both win.

    Democrats will FIRE Howard Dean as Party Chairman. Nancy Pelosi will be voted out of her minority leader position.

    The media will demonize Karl Rove.

    Cynthia McKinney and Angela Moore will moan about being “disenfranchised.”

    John Kerry will say/do something stupid…oh, wait…

    Denny Hastert will be replaced as Speaker of the House, with John Boehner (sp?)

    Al Gore will become the first ever Supreme Potentate for the Chuch of Global Warming…oh, wait…

    Ned Lamont will go back to doing whatever the hell he did before running against Lieberman and will vanish into obscurity.

    Lieberman will switch parties and officially become a RINO. He’ll replace Lincoln Chaffee as the biggest RINO in the Senate.

    Bob Smither (L) will win Tom Delay’s old congressional seat.

    Sonny will win. Taylor will whine.

    I’ll be very happy when election season is over.

  15. defnotrep says:

    Jace,

    Let’s revisit this on Nov 8! I can’t wait to hear you guys moan on the loss of the House and the Senate.

    I’ll give you that Taylor isn’t as certain, but I think he will win for several reasons.

    I don’t do just wishful thinking….there’s research and a thought process behind it.

    Altho you have a nice, limerick style of writing! 🙂

  16. Jace Walden says:

    Defnotrep,

    You may very well be right on everything you just said…

    You see, I’m not exactly making what you would call “informed” predictions. I’m doing the whole “pulling them from my ass” thing.

    It’s kind of like betting on a random horse. I just pick whatever sounds good and go with it.

    BUT, if I’m right…I want you to refer to me as a prophet. 🙂

  17. DougieFresh says:

    This morning I woke up thinking 52-46-2, but the polls I have seen today look more like 51-47-2 in the Senate. This is assuming no GOP pickup in MD or NJ, and the republicans losing CT MT OH PA and holding VA, MO, or TN.

    However, depending on how this JK thing plays out, it could shift things.

    As for the House, I don’t think anyone really knows how it will turn out. With recent co-operative Gerrymandering, it is unlikely either party could ever lose more than 20 seats in one election, so at the very best the Dems will have a around a 10 seat margin, but more than likely it will settle in around even. House control may even change hands more than once during the next two years.

  18. DougieFresh says:

    Jace,

    If Smither wins Delay’s old seat, who wouldn’t love to see 217-217-1. That would make that lone Libertarian the “Most Powerful Man In Congress”.

    I really wish the Republican leadership had just jumped to his side instead of trying a silly write in campaign. If he pledged to organize with the Republicans, why not focus on maintaining House control as the first priority instead of keeping Libertarians in their place.

    If the Dems win by 1 seat, and it is due to Delay’s seat, the we will get what we deserve.

  19. DougieFresh says:

    Notice the replies to his blog. Looks like a lot of get the libertarian vitriol from social conservatives.

    Like what the Democrats did with moderate and conservative Democrats, the Republicans are doing with fiscally conservative Republicans (i.e. small “L” libertarians).

    Each election, social ONLY conservatives look more and more like socialist thugs who just happen to profess a belief in god.

    There was a time when Reagan was the standard by which Republicans lived and breathed. What happened to those days?

Comments are closed.