Updated Polling chart

Sorry for the light blogging lately – been working hard for “The Man” and Sonny too. Nevertheless, here’s an updated chart showing recent polling (including the SV poll Erick linked to) on the Governor’s race. I still don’t see a trend toward Taylor.

Strategic Vision
10/20-10/22/06
Perdue 51
Taylor 32
Hayes 9
Rasmussen Insider Advantage Strategic Vision
10/08/06 10/16/06? 10/13 – 10/15/06
Perdue 57 48 50
Taylor 32 28 36
Hayes 3 (other) 9 5
Insider Advantage Strategic Vision Mason-Dixon
9/19-9/20/06 9/22 – 9/24/06 9/23 – 9/27/06
Perdue 52 51 53
Taylor 32 38 34
Hayes 6 4 2
AJC/WSB Mason-Dixon AJC/WSB
10/05/02 10/xx/02 11/04/02
Perdue 42 39 40
Barnes 49 48 51
Hayes 2 ? ?

15 comments

  1. atlantaman says:

    I know it’s statistically insignificant from the last Strategic Vision Poll, but I wonder if any of it has to do with Sonny taking his negative “Pinocchio” Ad off the air and going positive with the “Mary” Ad.

  2. buzzbrockway says:

    Well, for the purposes of this election, Sonny’s “the man” but he’s not “The Man.”

    Contrary to popular belief, “The Man” is still alive and well, despite the beating his people took at the hand of Undercover Brother.

  3. ikarma says:

    If you keep a rolling average of the 5 most recent polls. Ignoring the polling company (Republican or Independent). And break the undecideds 80% for Taylor and 20% for Perdue you get the following:

    10-19 P-54.25 T-43

    10-20 P-53.35 T-42.8

    10-22 P-52.7 T-41.4

    A small drop for both. Meaning? Time will tell

  4. RandyMiller says:

    Re: the new polls.
    I’ve heard people say it’s the new tactic team
    Perdue has chosen. To go positive, talk about the good in Georgia, and what needs to be done to make our state even better. I do think the populance grows tired of negative ads over and over. To constantly see them again and again,
    maybe it’s like some unknown child you were unaware of that suddenly shows up on your doorstep unanounced!

  5. atlantaman says:

    ikarma-

    I’m not necessarily disputing your 80/20 rule for undecideds, but would like to know how I could find more information on this.

  6. I think it depends on the undecideds. I find that the more high profile the race, the more likely the undecideds are to break against the incumbent. They’ve had four years (or 6 in a Senate race) to decide on the incumbent. If they like him or her, even only marginally, they’ve had time to stick with ’em.

    When you get down to state legislative races or lower, people have less information, don’t know the candidates, etc. Mood of the electorate can really affect the undecideds. If Perdue and Eric Johnson both have 48-35 leads (just making this up) I’d feel much better about Johnson’s chances.

    Why? If someone is even marginally interested in electing Perdue, they’ve probably already made up their mind for or against it. If against, they may not go to the extra step of deciding where their no vote goes until the last minute.

    With a lower ballot race, name id is lower and partisanship and other factors (like region) are a much larger driver. In the Eric Johnson scenario, people may show up and say I have no idea who to vote for, find out that Johnson is the incumbent and say OK that’s fine with me then. Or that he’s a Republican, or any other number of factors.

    In other words, in races where partisanship is the driver, undecideds probably break along their partisan lines. Where it is less likely to be a driver (races where they know things about the actual candidates like Governor and President) incumbency is much more of a factor.

    Now, when do I get to teach my class???

  7. ikarma says:

    Atlantaman:

    Nick Panagakis, a member of the National Council on Public Polls, is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm headquartered in Mt. Prospect, Ill.

    This article appeared in the February 27, 1989, edition of The Polling Report.

    Incumbent Races:
    Closer Than They Appear

    by Nick Panagakis

    How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll respondents who stated a candidate preference.

    But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

  8. Nicki says:

    I was undecided. I am now decided AGAINST Sonny, despite the fact that I really, really dislike Mark Taylor. I’m actually considering not voting in that race at all.

    I was seriously considering Sonny for some time. But the “homosexual lobby” flyer has made it so that I will NEVER vote for him, ever. And I was never comfortable with the candidates whose flyers he appears on — most of them stress garbage like “conservative leadership” when it’s completely inappropriate to the position (Sec. of State, judicial races).

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