Can the polls be wrong? Consider this.
On October 5, 2002, the Atlanta Journal and WSB-TV conducted a poll showing Roy Barnes at 49% and Sonny Perdue at 42%. In mid-October of 2002, Mason-Dixon showed Roy Barnes at 48% and Sonny Perdue at 39%. On November 4, 2002, one day before the election, the Atlanta Journal/WSB-TV poll showed Roy Barnes at 51% and Sonny Perdue at 40%. The internal polling of the Barnes campaign showed similar results. So did the internals of the Perdue campaign, except the Perdue campaign was no longer looking at its internal polling. Instead, the campaign was looking at its GOTV ground game data and knew Perdue would win.
On November 5, 200
62, Sonny Perdue beat Roy Barnes 51.4% to 46.3% with the Libertarian taking 2.3% of the vote.
The polls were wrong. Well, the polls, per say, were not wrong. They measured the temperature in the state at the time they were taken. But one day before the election a credible poll showed the Democrat winning and the actual results were a mirror image, with the Republican winning. Why?
Because the polls cannot measure the intensity of the GOP’s ground game and that ground game is that good. It was put in place in 2000. It was refined in places like Georgia in 2002 and in Ohio in 2004. And now the GOP is set to unleash it again.
So keep this in mind — the polls may be an accurate indicator of public sentiment, but the only result that counts occurs on November 7th inside polling booths. And that is to the GOP’s advantage.