26 comments

  1. Philly says:

    I think the fact Perdue seems to be dropping belwo 50% is something to be concerned about.

    A lot of people are second guessing whether or not to vote for Perdue now.

    A lot of Republicans are angry at Perdue and that m ay end up hurting him.

    I will vote for him, simply because I don’t want Taylor as Governor.

  2. John Konop says:

    I think most Republicans know Perdue will win in a run-off with Taylor. That is why Hayes is doing well in the polls. It is a way for fiscal conservatives to send a message without any damage.

  3. debbie0040 says:

    I think you are right , John. That makes sense.

    But in a runoff, the turnout will be much lighter.

  4. buzzbrockway says:

    Here the WSJ description of the methodology of this poll:

    These polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company’s Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.

    Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company’s Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.

    Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby’s telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

    The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 20 states (AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

    Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.8 to 4.4% percentage points. All polls track likely voters. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

    Beginning Oct. 19, results include “leaning” voters — those who are leaning toward a candidate but haven’t yet committed. Respondents who answer “not sure” to “for whom would you vote” questions, are asked “if you had to choose today, who would you say you are leaning toward.” Responses to the followup question are added to those from the initial question.

    Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company’s U.S. database of online-poll participants are “regulars,” who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 26 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby’s secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

    As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

    For the overall party breakdowns shown on the governor and senate panels: Races that aren’t being polled are assumed to stay in the current party’s possession.

    Until the candidate fields were narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls matched up multiple candidates in each state and identified some of the strongest candidates from each party. Beginning Sept. 28, 2006, poll results shown reflect major party and third-party candidates. Results for the candidates polling third place or below in any given matchup are shown only if one of those candidates in a particular match polls 5% or higher.

    This graphic highlights a sampling of matchups for each race. In some cases, Zogby has polled additional matchups that aren’t included in the graphic. Full polling results are available from Zogby.

    Erick raised questions about Zogby’s interactive polls some time ago.

  5. Mike Hauncho says:

    When every poll come out no matter if it is a 20 point lead or a 5 point lead the Republicans need to mention that Sonny cannot win by that amount unless you get out and vote. The big problem with large poll number is that people become complacent.

  6. rightofcenter says:

    Some of you need to get out more and talk to more people than party activists. Your average Jane and Joe Republicans seem very pleased with Sonny.

    Taking the fact that it is a Zogby poll in mind, this still looks good for Sonny. Comparing it to other states, this is one of the largest gaps in the country. And while 49.3% may technically be under 50%, it’s close enough with 6% undecideds and with Hayes polling higher than he will actually get (I’d be happy to make a large bet on this last one).

  7. GaChick says:

    Boss Hawg Sonny Perdue has been horrible for women. He’s like that sorta creepy “uncle” that talks nice but you know he’s wanting to accidentally bump into you in the wrong places.

    Sonny Did: Cut funding to disabled Katie Beckett kids while giving himself a fat cat $100,000 tax break.

    Sonny Did: Cut funding to education

    Wake up Georgians! Mark Did:

    1. Fight to get HOPE passed.
    2. Fight to create state funded Pre-K program
    3. Raise teachers’ salaries to highest in the southeast.
    4. Fight for PeachCare.
    5. Pass the single largest tax cut in Georgia history.
    6. Remove the state sales tax on groceries.
    7. Lead the fight for income tax and property tax cuts for all Georgians.
    8. Pass laws like Two Strikes and You’re Out that put the most violent repeat offenders in Georgia behind bars for life.
    9. Establish a DNA database that has helped police crack more than 400 previously unsolved crimes.
    10. Remove the statute of limitations for prosecution in rape cases.
    11. Establish Georgia’s first child endangerment law.
    12. Lead the fight for the Prescriptive Equity Act, which requires that insurance companies cover prescription contraceptives.
    13. Lead the fight for mandated coverage for childbirth, mastectomies, and cancer screenings.

    Mark has consistently done things to help Georgians…especially women and children.

  8. RandyMiller says:

    GaChick:

    Please don’t take to too strong drink this early in the am! The above posting is fine…..if you’re talking about Zell Miller and some members of the Georgia house & senate.

  9. John Konop says:

    rightofcenter

    I do agree most Republicans are happy with Perdue. I am only talking about 10% to 20 % of Republicans who may drift toward Hayes.

    That would explain why Hayes is polling between 5 and 10% of the vote. And if that happens you would have a runoff, which would be won by Perdue.

  10. JRM2016 says:

    To any fellow Georgia GOPers:

    As has been said time and again since September–

    –This race will tighten up

    –We MUST get our GOTV program in gear

    –If you can, go ahead and vote absentee and encourage your friends to do the same. We are now in the “no reason” absentee period.

    On the National Scene:

    –Steele in dead heat with Cardin in MD Senate (Survey USA Poll 46-46, 10/18)

    –Corker by 7 in TN Senate Race (Zogby/WSJ 10/18)

  11. Philly says:

    I have heard the some longtime Republicans talking about doing what John mentioned.

    I am just wondering how many other races might go to a runoff?

  12. Jason Pye says:

    I know several conservative Republicans that are voting for Hayes for a variety of different reasons…ranging from his failure to get meaningful eminent domain reform passed and his lack of fiscal conservativism to the gay marriage ban and the smoking ban (increasing the size of government).

  13. buzzbrockway says:

    I don’t doubt that some are thinking of doing what John says (vote Libertarian then support Perdue in a runoff) but that’s very dangerous.

    It is not a given that Perdue would win a runoff. Turnout will be abysmal, as the runoff would be during the start of the holiday season.

    Furthermore, these Republicans already cast a protest vote when they voted for the Flagger McBerry (which some of these people told me they voted for in protest) so how many times do they need to cast a protest vote? Why not just vote for Taylor and be done with it?

    Forgive me for not being “sensitive” to the feelings of these folks but if they want to play games with their vote we’ll end up with Taylor as Governor.

    You don’t advance your political agenda by losing elections or by casting protest votes, you do it by winning.

  14. John Konop says:

    Buzz,

    Are saying the flaggers are the same guys supporting Libertarian Hayes?

    I do agree with some of your points, except Libertarians and Flaggers are two seperate groups.

  15. John Konop says:

    Buzz,

    You could be right. I will tell you form my view it is a different crowd. The Hayes people I talk are mad about spending and personal rights and are younger (19 to 40 ).

    The Mcberry group seemed very upset about the voting issue with the flag and are older ( 40 +).BTW I am 44 so I do not want to offend anyone.

    I think you are right about some cross over. I am only going by the letters & e-mails I get and people I talk with.

    As I said 20% of Republicans is about 10% of the vote in a general election.

    BTW I am only telling you what I see and hear. I have no data to back up what I said.

  16. rightofcenter says:

    I am not a party activist, and don’t attend a lot of party county meetings. With that in mind, let me tell you I haven’t met one single person any where in this state who isn’t voting for either Perdue or Taylor. They may be out there, but I think you guys ( and some of the polls) are vastly overestimating them.

  17. atlantaman says:

    “Mark has consistently done things to help Georgians…especially women”

    Isn’t that unfair to men?

  18. defnotrep says:

    Last night I talked with 3 male, 22 year olds, caucasian. They said they had talked about the election. They said they are all voting for the libertarian candidate. All 3 were articulate and informed. They don’t like “liberals” or the “religious right”. I think we will see more of this from the next generation.

    I was asking them to consider Taylor.

  19. defnotrep says:

    By the way, none of them have a regular phone. They are all in college and use a cel. They won’t show up in regular polling.

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