Beware Friends Bearing Zogby Polls

A friend in the Taylor camp keeps telling me to pay attention to the Zogby poll. It has Sonny down below 50%. That’s horrible news for Sonny.

Actually, I think it is rather good news for Sonny. Another friend sends along these pearls of wisdom we in the blogging business call “facts.


  1. JasonW says:

    With all do respect Erik, and I’m no Zogby fan, but most of the examples you use are well within the margin of error in any poll. While, I tend to think that Rasmussens polls are best, i have a hard time believing that Taylor could be up by 25 points. I just don’t see it. Polling isn’t an exact science, and unpredictable motions by voters are always changing and always effect the vote.

  2. Plus in 2002 there is a pretty well documented late Republican shift. I seem to recall that the New York Times was polling, all along they had their generic Congressional ballot tied around 47-47 and then in the weekend before the election the poll came back with Republicans up 7 or something like that. They thought the poll was an outlier so they played down the results but it was actually right.

    The biggest problem with Rasmussen is that they wait so long to publicly release their numbers. I prefer Survey USA. They have a nice site.

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