• In the Georgia State Senate, the current lineup is 34 Republican, 22 Democrats. Republicans need four to pass constitutional amendments. Won’t happen now — or probably ever. The GOP’s about maxed out in the state Senate. Of the 22 Democrats, 18 are from districts won by John Kerry. Of the remaining four — Tim Golden of Valdosta, George Hooks of Americus, J.B. Powell of Blythe and Steve Thompson of Marietta — Hooks will retire at his pleasure; Golden shows the potential of being the Democrat who can survive among Republicans; and Thompson’s district is becoming more Democratic. Within four years he’s at risk from a challenger on his left, not his right. Powell’s district was won by President Bush and U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson in 2004, when Powell won by 405 votes. Prediction: Neither party gains more than one seat.
• In the Georgia state House, the current lineup is 104 Republicans, 74 Democrats, one independent and one vacancy — though it’s effectively 104-76. This will likely be the low-point election for Democrats, who could lose another three to five seats, including the one held by former House Speaker Terry Coleman of Eastman.
I also think he is right in saying that the GOP probably isn’t in as desperate shape as some would have us believe considering that in 16 of the 20 seats most likely to be won by the Democrats, President Bush won them by at least 60%.