Emanuel on Perdue

Jeff’s latest column that for some reason he saw no reason to link to here, makes the case I was making about the poll numbers.

As of last week, Perdue had a surprisingly comfortable lead in most polls – 19 in Mason-Dixon, 13 in Strategic Vision. But there are similarities to the 2002 gubernatorial contest which should serve as warning to the Perdue campaign, and to Georgia Republicans.

Four years ago, incumbent Democrat Gov. Roy Barnes was running for re-election. He had a commanding double-digit lead in the polls throughout the fall, carrying an 11-point advantage into election week. But a rising tide of displeasure with Barnes throughout the state – particularly from supporters of keeping the Confederate battle flag on the state flag – and a pro-Republican national climate – the GOP gained seats in both the House and Senate that year – combined to lift the challenger, Perdue, to a remarkable and unexpected victory.

This is not 2002, and Sonny Perdue is not Roy Barnes. But Perdue is now the incumbent, and must stand on his record and ideological credentials – neither of which is stellar – in the face of a concerted effort to dethrone him.

23 comments

  1. CobbGOPer says:

    Taylor has not given us a good reason to vote against Sonny other than his $100,000 tax-break, which Sonny throws right back in Mark’s face with comments on Taylor’s silver-spoon upbringing and no-show $100,000 job with his father’s company. No compelling reasons (at least none articulated through the campaign media) have been put forward.

    That usually spells success for the incumbent. This isn’t 2002 certainly, but the turnaround in the General Assembly should be the major indicator here. Republicans turned around a small minority into control of both chambers in one election cycle, and the numbers say that isn’t likely to change this time around. If that’s the case, I don’t see many problems for Sonny’s reelection, barring any huge disaster before November.

  2. GrandOleDawg says:

    Two points:

    1.) There is nothing new here at all. This is what everyone has been saying for dang near a month now. At least when Buzz posted something similar a few weeks ago, he gave us the old numbers. I just don’t see where this is newsworthy. Been hashed and re-hashed.

    2.) A question for Jeff: Is it the official position of the UGA College Republicans that niether Sonny Perdue’s record, or his ideological credentials is “stellar”? After all, as their Public Relations Director, you do serve as the mouth piece for their organization.

  3. UGAMatthew says:

    GrandOle,

    I’ll agree with you. I don’t think this is any new idea…which maybe why Jeff didn’t link it here (erick)…Jeff?

    Besides, Jeff said it, Perdue isn’t Barnes, and moreover, the pro-Republican sentiment that existed does not match any “pro-Democratic” sentiment here in Georgia.

  4. Grand Old (Young) Dumb***: here’s a question for YOU, since you seem to think you childish college republicans are real poilicy makers.

    Is it the official position of the GACR not to support Casey Cagle, republican nominee for lt. Governor? Becase as their Political Director (hahaha) you talk a whoile lot in public about how youre voting libertarian in that race.

    Ouch, truth hurts, huh, child? Grow up. And use some proactive.

  5. GrandOleDawg says:

    UGAMatthew,
    My feeling is that Georgia is indeed trending a little “redder” these days, which is phenominal considering the nation seems to have slid blue-ish a shade or two. It’ll be interesting to see just how red we get this November…and contrast that with our neighbors to the north, Tennessee, who is dangerously close to sending a Democrat to the Senate. So yeah, I agree. While I think Mr. Taylor is very solid with the core of their party, I just don’t see the masses lining up behind him or any Dem. this year.

  6. debbie0040 says:

    I think Perdue will win, but it will be much closer than what the polls show now.

    I think that the largest margin of victory for a GOP statewide candidate will be achieved by Karen Handel.

  7. LymanHall says:

    The $100,000 personal tax break was MY money as a taxpayer. It is an outrage. I don’t care what Fred Taylor does with his personal money. Sonny should get his hands off my money. I thought fiscal conservatives were better than this?

  8. GrandOleDawg says:

    And Realconservative,
    To answer you more directly; Although I do have my concerns about Casey Cagle, and have expressed them here on PP, I am supporting our entire Republican ticket this fall, including Casey Cagle.

  9. Donkey Kong says:

    GrandOleDawg,

    Jeff never said he wasn’t supporting Gov. Perdue, merely observing that his record is less than stellar but I know he supports him. I feel certain that Jeff will support Gov. Perdue, just like you claim to support Casey Cagle. In this case, it seems the pot is calling the kettle black.

    Oh, and next time try to keep your personal issues off PP. Your hostility is unwarranted.

  10. GrandOleDawg says:

    Donkey,
    No ‘personal’ issues, here. It’s just a little troubling when you see the PR Director of an Republican organization attacking the credentials of candidate you support. No hostility, just questions. That is what a public forum like PP is about.

  11. Cole Gardner says:

    GrandOleDawg,

    One job of the media is to criticize. If Jeff wanted Purdue to lose, he would encourage a bad campaign, and if you read the article, you would see that is clearly not the case. Jeff is trying to wake up the Purdue campaign to some last minute concerns so that no surprises happen on election day. You need to understand that it is perfectly okay to criticize candidates you support when they screw up. We need to stop thinking in Red and Blue all the time and remember to look at the credentials of the candidates. Otherwise, you wind up blindly supporting these guys who give ‘dirty’ a bad name. Also, stop with the personal attacks. Yes, they ARE personal attacks. Don’t argue. Just stop. They’re juvenile, not to mention unfounded. Jeff does NOT necessarily represent the majority opinion of CRs, and he makes that explicitly clear. Let that be the end of it.

  12. GrandOleDawg says:

    Cole, as a close, personal friend of Jeff’s I can understand that you are unhappy. However, I’ve read the entire article ( http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/101206/opinion_20061012062.shtml ) and it goes far beyond “constructive criticism”. As far as Jeff sounding out a wake up call….well, I’m sure it was duly noted at Perdue headquarters.

    Interesting how when Jeff criticizes a candidate, he is doing us all a favor. But if anyone criticizes Jeff, it’s juvenile.

  13. AtomSmasher says:

    Grand Old Dog. This is nowhere near the first time I’ve seen you truying to start a flame war on jeff emmanuel’s threads. Do you think that it’s not obvious it’s personal?

    Stick to flaming in the comments on peachpundit. I can’t wait to see him aim his canon at pathetic little kids like you who think that college republicans are karl roves, and give you what you deserve to the thousands of readers of townhall and redstate and the newspapers he writes for too. Should be entertianing to say the least.

    Wake up and realize that college republicans are a college club just like the womens studies club or rowing club and not karl roves or big boys. Stick to putting up signs, boy, don’t think youre in the big leagues because youre in a college club. Who have you helped get elected or volunteered for by flaming from behind a computer? Sorry, crs arent the power organization yo think they are. Theyre kids who are great volunteers when they arent punks like you who worship power hungry crooks and think theyre karl roves.

    Sometimes its great not to be a republican, because I can look at people like you who I can only hope are the future of that party because if you are, weve got another 40 years of democrat control while us Libertarians look on and say I told you so. NIce!

  14. Erick says:

    GrandOleDawg, it seems to me that on more than occasion you have taken your personal issues with Jeff into the comments of Peach Pundit and I wish you’d refrain from doing so.

    His was a good column and it is one that many in the GOP agree with. Likewise, while Jeff may hold a position with the CR’s, he’s also got a job as a columnist and he should not have to sacrifice his honesty in one for the spin of another.

  15. Cole Gardner says:

    GrandOleDawg,

    A few points and I’m done here. Firstly, my friendship with Jeff has no bearing on the legitimacy of his work. Secondly, the Perdue campaign might do itself some good to listen because Jeff is not the only one, in this thread and elsewhere, to express this kind of concern. Thirdly, criticism of Jeff is so often “juvenile” because of where it so often originates. Lastly, leave the sarcasm at the door, please. It does not do yourself any good because it only further solidifies my point. Retort if you like, and then can we please get back to some substantive discussion now?

  16. GrandOleDawg says:

    Erick,
    I have on occasion taken issue with Jeff, that is true. But never was it uncalled for, and it was always applicable to the topic.

    As far as his CR duties go, I’m sorry, but you do your organization a great disservice when you go about attacking the candidates your organization is working for. With the title comes responsibility. Many people in the club have expressed distaste with Jeff’s critical pieces and how they may reflect on the chapter. Power-brokers, CRs are not. But they are a great volunteer base for the party and many of them do great work.

    Claims of “personal attacks” on Jeff, and CR duties aside, the article is just plain wrong. “…the product thus far has been less than desirable.”, Jeff? I do not know what else these guys could do to boost Sonny’s numbers. Ya get a candidate’s lead to double digits, and everyone on PP feels someone is falling down on the job. I’m guessing you could get the Governor to a 30+ point lead?? No one thought this group was “overrated” when they pulled of the mamouth political upset that put Perdue in office. And the ads couldn’t be too bad, or else the Governor’s lead wouldn’t be in the high teens (even low 20’s) and growing. As far as the “arrogance” claim, I’m afraid I haven’t seen it. Everything I hear from those guys seem to suggest they are very mindful of ’02, and are working hard to prevent a repeat. They’ve all come across as very humble and gracious for any help they’ve gotten.

    BUT, that’s just my take. Nothing personal, just some of that “constructive critcism.” ; )

  17. AtomSmasher says:

    “As far as his CR duties go, I’m sorry, but you do your organization a great disservice when you go about attacking the candidates your organization is working for. With the title comes responsibility.”

    Hahaahaha! Tell me another one. Hm lets see, which outweighs which: college club, or paid professional column writing.

    You kids have such delusions of grandeur. I hope he takes you down next for thinking youre all the next karl rove instead of what you are: sign boys and door to door pack mules. When I was in college we all thought the same thing, dont worry-but then we grew up and realized yall are babies who think theyre men, and who think causing drama means that youre in big boy politics land.

  18. atlantaman says:

    I would say the major difference between Barnes in 2002 and Perdue in 2006 is the Republican trend. Zell Miller put it basically like this, “The dam was on verge of breaking for a number of years and it finally fell apart in 2002.” I know these things run in cycles (although the Democrat cycle was for over 100 years), but I just don’t see the trend reversing itself so quickly.

  19. Donkey Kong says:

    “Many people in the club have expressed distaste with Jeff’s critical pieces and how they may reflect on the chapter.”

    Many people in your club should be thankful for the exposure Jeff has brought as a columnist read by hundreds of thousands of readers. Your “club” should be grateful you have such talent on staff.

  20. GAWire says:

    >>”””As far as his CR duties go, I’m sorry, but you do your organization a great disservice when you go about attacking the candidates your organization is working for”””

    Yeah, and we all just loved it when Melhman went to bat for Lincoln Chaffee!

    Alright, folks … as much as I want to stay away from this kind of discussion, I’m going to jump in, primarily b/c I am seeing a bunch of morons make moronic claims about some of the only logical stuff I have seen thus far in 2006.

    Firstly, forget Jeff is apart of UGA CR’s. We all know that there are a lot of Rove-wannabes over there (as is the case on EVERY college campus), but that doesn’t mean they are all like that. Jeff is certainly the exception. Why do I know that? Because he is smarter than me and most of you guys, and the first thing a smart politician, businessman, etc does is associate himself with people smarter than they are. Further, he is a columnist. So, he can write what he wants, regardless of his volunteer activities.

    As to the article itself, Jeff is saying what every insider is thinking, as well as what a lot of Republicans are suspecting.

    You all know that I have been very hard on the fact that I think Sonny is going to win. He will. Perhaps Jeff and I disagree on the certainty of that. But, trust me, folks, I don’t for a second think that Perdue’s win will be because everyone is happy with Perdue. I attribute Sonny’s likely win to the fact that there aren’t enough Georgia voters to vote the other way.

    However, there is a very good chance that I haven’t considered well enough one of the most key factors here: the no-show voters.

    There are a lot of GOPers that will not show up to vote in two weeks. Further, Sonny’s rediculously high poll numbers will increase that factor a great deal … more people will abstain from voting out of personal principle b/c they feel they are safe from the alternative winning.

    Now, I still do believe Sonny will win. A few weeks ago, I said it would be more like 10 pts rather than the 20 pts some of you other folks were predicting. At this point, I will be shocked if Sonny breaks into the double digits again, and I predict his win being closer in the 4-7 pt range.

    As for you people attacking Jeff … you’re not even remotely on target, so my recommendation is either stay on the topic and respond in an educated manner, or there is another website that is perfect for stupid and pointless banter that has something to do with political vines.

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