Cagle with 10 point lead.

According to Mason-Dixon:

The telephone survey of 625 voters, conducted Sept. 23-27 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, showed Cagle, a Gainesville state senator, with the support of 42 percent of those polled, compared with 32 percent for Martin, an Atlanta attorney and former lawmaker.

Libertarian Allen Buckley received 2 percent, and a quarter of voters remain undecided, with five weeks to go before the Nov. 7 election.

The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Will Martin, a spokesman for the Martin campaign, played down the significance of the newspaper survey, saying it conflicted with the campaign’s own findings. “The only polling we trust is our own, which shows that the race for lieutenant governor is a dead heat,” Will Martin said.

Brad Alexander, a spokesman for the Cagle campaign, said they were confident in the newspaper poll’s accuracy.

Now that’s more like it. 🙂

7 comments

  1. Demonbeck says:

    This is good to hear, but who takes any stock in polls five weeks out?

    Cagle knows where he stands with the voters right now, but 35 days is a LOOOOONG time in an election year.

  2. leftrightcombo says:

    The polling has been consistent all year.
    Cagle should be comfortable for the next 35 days and should win pretty easily.

  3. commonsense says:

    I think this post is a good time to point out that this is the first real poll done post primary in Georgia. Consider:

    Zogby- They admit they don’t poll. They take a self-selected group and select from it. Then they call 2% of the group, the rest fill it out online. This is not a poll

    Strategic Vision- In May of 2005 their poll said Ralph Reed had name ID among GA GOP of 88%. 12% didn’t know who he was or had no opinion. A YEAR before the primary, before a single paid ad, 88%. I haven’t seen cross tabs of the AJC poll but I doubt Taylor has this high of ID today. Their horse race question is #17. 17! After asking about Iraq, immigration, and 15 other things they decided to ask about the race. No real pollster does that. Quite simply Strategic Visions cannot be polling. A real poll cost $20,000. They do these for free, no announced sponsor. Given that the cost doesn’t seem plausible and the numbers don’t add up it’s clear either their polls are really part of corporate polls and horse race is even further down or they are not polling. Either way their numbers are not real.

    InsiderAdvantage- They have subscribers, this is who they poll for. Problem is they don’t poll well. My guess is it’s a combination of a smaller sample (only 500 instead of 800 or more) and poor weighting. Towery didn’t know the state well enough to win office so how can we expect him to know it well enough to poll. They were way off in the Reed/Cagle race and their numbers in the Gov race mirror these other fake polls. My guess is they call they just don’t know what to do after that.

    Mason-Dixon is a real firm. I’m not too familiar with their track record but their numbers seem to make sense and notice that the Libs come back to reality in this poll.

  4. hankreardan says:

    Mason Dixon only polled 625 people which seemed small to me. Of course being a Libertarian I really liked Zobby. BTW that is the highest we have ever polled in the state at 8.4% for Garrett Hayes in the Governors race.

  5. atlantaman says:

    “Mason Dixon only polled 625 people which seemed small to me.”

    How many people should have been polled for a statistically accurate sampling?

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