Setting His Sights

Jim Martin has a new poll.

Jim Martin, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, is in a statistical dead heat with Casey Cagle, his Republican opponent, according to a new statewide poll released today by Martin’s campaign.

In the first three-way trial heat conducted in the race, Martin and Cagle are separated by only 4 points, which is within the poll’s margin of error. According to the poll, Cagle draws support from 38 percent of voters to Martin’s 34 percent, while Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley receives 5 percent and 23 percent of voters are presently undecided.

A couple of thoughts on this.

1. I think no one would take it seriously if Martin was ahead of Cagle right now. So, kudos to them for being realistic with their polling.

2. It’s a candidate’s poll, so I tend always to think the news is much worse that the candidate’s poll advertises.

3. I’d like to see the actual questions. Should Martin release those, I would give much more credibility to his survery. But again, it matches the prevailing preception, which is a good thing for both him and us. I think there are a great many undecideds right now and his polling reflects that.

I am very interested in the Libertarian numbers. I’ve heard rumors of a poll from a reputable nonpartisan group that shows the Libertarian candidates for Gov. and Lt. Gov. both at between 6 and 7 percent, which can’t be good news for the GOP.

11 comments

  1. atlantaman says:

    “I’ve heard rumors of a poll from a reputable nonpartisan group that shows the Libertarian candidates for Gov. and Lt. Gov. both at between 6 and 7 percent, which can’t be good news for the GOP.”

    While it wouldn’t be thought of as good news, remember if there is nobody over 50% there will be a runoff so the news is not as bad as you might think.

  2. A runoff will be bad for Perdue. His air of invicibility will evaporate overnight. It will be a crushing loss for someone that should be favored to win outright.

    Reputable pollsters like Martin’s don’t release poll results unless they are willing to stand behind them, or they will lose clients in the future. Knowing that this is still more or less a 50-50 state (or more likely 33-33-33) having the race be 38-34 is well within the realm of believability. I can’t imagine that the numbers are any worse, or better. The only people that will be disapointed are those on this site and others that have really drunk the Republican kool aid and think we’re in a state where Republican candidates for open seats are automatically at 50% or something crazy like that.

    Now I’ll tell you something I’d like to see, the “biographical statements” from Perry McGuire’s poll that turned a 45-25 deficit into a 45-25 lead. I’m sure they were very accurate. Probably about as reputable as McGuire attacking Baker for not personally arguing cases that his office won. Be kind of like telling Richt if he doesn’t personally take the snaps on gameday that he isn’t doing his job.

  3. Mad Dog says:

    Where is Cagle the Great Debater?

    Hiding. Hoping the numbers will cover him until election day.

    If I were Jim Martin, I’d be running ads about looking for Casey Cagle.

    I think I saw him on the back of a milk carton.

    He can’t debate Martin and win.

    Best for him to hope he rides in on Sonny’s coattails!

    Who pulled Cagle into the Lt. Gov. office? Sonny DID!

    Reminds me a lot of Eric Johnson, the architect that became a Real Estate Agent.

    Someone who has yet to lower themselves enough to reach their level of incompetence.

  4. Bill Simon says:

    Chris, I’ve NEVER promoted SV as a reputable pollster.

    However, Seacrest is the “Dem” pollster here, and Dems haven’t made the greatest showing in the past 4 years at the polls, whether they be state or federal level.

  5. MountainDawg says:

    Perdue’s Coattails or not, Cagle will be out next Lt. Governor. I saw him at an event this weekend, and he is in a zone. He is comfortable with the audience, and his delivery is getting better with each event. He’s the common sense conservative that Republicans need right now. Jim Martin is a nice guy, but he’s a liberal lawyer that don’t know the difference between Hiawasse and Hahira. With credible rural Democrats few and far between, Martin is the prototype candidate for Democratics for years to come. This race is truly a match where voters will be able to choose between representatives of the contemporary parties in Georgia.

  6. Mad Dog says:

    Dawg,

    Is that for or against a debate between the two?

    I have to agree with you on one point, Cagle needed the polish that only a real campaign gives to a candidate.

    The question facing every candidate … is it just shine?

  7. atlantaman says:

    “A runoff will be bad for Perdue. His air of invicibility will evaporate overnight. ”

    I agree that a runoff is not good for an incumbent, but I still objectively think Perdue would pull it out. I know it’s hardly scientific, but I like to look at the Everett/Speir races of 2002 as evidence that Libertarians tend to vote Repub if there is no Lib on the ballot.

    In the Everett race you had the Dem getting 913,117, the Repub getting 1,007,479 and the Lib getting none since there was not candidate.

    In the Speir race you had the Dem getting 911,669 (not much difference in either race), the Repub getting 918,837 (almost a 9% drop from Everett’s race) and the Lib getting 104,290. The totals for each race were Everett 1,920,596 and Speir 1,934,796. The Speir race had an increase of 14,200 overall votes and yet the Lib received 104,290 votes. My guess is that a big chunk of those 104,290 votes went to Everett in his race.

    I know campaings have a lot of variables and it’s hard to assign any one variable to the individual outcome. But PSC, with it’s very low interest level and low candidate name ID seems to be as pure of a party play that exists out there. Speir and Everett were both challenging incumbents, so that variable is removed, although Bubba I’m sure had better name ID then the person who ran against Everett.

    You could make the argument that the Libs would not vote in a runoff, but I think a certain percentage of them would.

  8. Mad Dog says:

    Honestly, I didn’t know Perdue had an air of invicibility. (Or, is that an error of invincibility?)

    I would think most incumbents have the comforts of office that can give rise to arrogance.

    Is Sonny still shining his own cowboy boots?

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