Evans-Novak on Georgia’s 8th and 12th CD races

From the 8/30 Evans-Novak Political Report:

Republicans have touted their chances in Georgia, but there is no overwhelming reason for optimism at this point. Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) could be defeated in a political comeback story for former Rep. Max Burns (R), especially since the district has been redrawn since Burns lost to Barrow in 2004. Former Rep. Mac Collins (R-Ga.), although a strong and able candidate (who is\nrunning a much better race than his 2004 Senate candidacy), faces an even tougher prospect in challenging Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.).(R), especially since the district has been redrawn since Burns lost to Barrow in 2004. Former Rep. Mac Collins (R-Ga.), although a strong and able candidate (who is running a much better race than his 2004 Senate candidacy), faces an even tougher prospect in challenging Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.).

7 comments

  1. HSC Republican says:

    Max def has a chance in the 12. There is a lot of strong support for him down in Savannah, also I do not see Barrow doing well in the rural areas. Also what helps Max and Mac is that there is a strong Republican ticket, while the Democrats are lacking down ballot excitemt.

  2. dingleberry says:

    Assuming that one of the two GOP challengers can pull of an upset, who is it more likely to be? Burns or Collins?

  3. blazer says:

    What really is the likelihood that Mac or Max could win? I mean don’t get me wrong, I would be thrilled to have 9 Republican Congressmen from Georgia. But when you look at the re-election rate in the U.S. House being around 98% percent for the last 50+ years & when you see them both being down in the polls… let’s be realistic, what are their chances respectively?

  4. GOP_Dude says:

    Blazer, a couple of comments. First off, on Mac, his numbers look tough. He is down a bunch in the polls. While that district was 58% Bush in 2004, Marshall has done a good job of solidifying himself in the rural areas. While Mac can make a come back, I think it will be a significant (though not impossible) feat to go after.

    However, on Max, Stuart Rothenberg, one of the best, truly independent pundits, ranks Max as the most likely takeover opportunity in the country for Republicans:

    http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/

    Also, while Blazer is right that incumbents generally win, every American election in modern history (including those where there was a wave) saw at least 1 incumbent from each party lose (even if the wave was in that party’s favor). Given this, I’d say Max has a pretty good chance. He is even with Barrow in the polls. The most recent poll (released by the Burns camp) was 44 for Barrow vs. 43 for Max, within the margin of error, and went un-contested by Barrow’s camp (I guess their polls didn’t dispute that).

    Considering that Bush is willing to spend is time trying to help Max raise money, the national Repubs think this opportunity is real. While 98% of incumbents do win, I’d wonder what the winning percentage is for candidates who are considered the “most vulnerable” in their entire party.

  5. atlantaman says:

    Novak was on the radio last night and had some interesting insights. They’ve had a pretty good record in the past, one of the few that saw the 1994 Republican victory coming, because Evans and Novak look at each race unto itself.

    A lot of what we hear is based on stupid national polls that ask folks questions like, “Do you think Congress should be Republican or Democrat?” Those polls are irrelevant since they don’t take into account gerrymandering or the fact that in general people tend to always be upset with Congress, but like their own Congressman. That being said what he said was a problem for Republicans.

    They felt the Dems would take 14 Republican seats this year, which would leave the Dems one short of the majority – although he said there was a chance the Dems could take up to 26 seats.

    The big problem for Repubs is Evans and Novak felt there are no seats going from Dem to Repub this year – with a chance that the Repubs could take back the old Phil Crane seat in Illinois and a seat in Georgia (I assume he meant the Barrow seat).

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