Larry Sabato on Georgia’s races

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, and sometime TV talking head says this about the 8th and 12th Congressional District races:

8th:

Democrats continue to insist that Marshall is strong, but numerous high-profile Republicans continue to help Collins raise money. Is the GOP grasping at straws, desperately hoping that at least one incumbent Democrat can be forced out this year? Or do they sense genuine opportunity? We’re not sure, but it’s hard to believe Marshall would lose this year after a near 2-1 victory last cycle.

12th:

Barrow may now call Savannah (and not Athens) his home, but little about this race has changed over the last year. Burns remains the considerable underdog.

Not an encouraging assessment for the two GOP challengers, however, Sabato still lists these two races in his “Ferocious Forty” list of races he thinks will decide wether or not the Democrats take over the House.

4 comments

  1. GMoxleySorrel says:

    Marshall won almost 2 – 1 in his old district not the new 8th. In the new 8th Bush got 60 % of the vote in 04 and Perdue got 58 % in 02.

  2. blazer says:

    GM,

    I hate to burst your bubble but the “Bush” numbers won’t always translate into a republican congressman. Look at the 2nd: Sanford gets 66%(2:1) Bush got 56%. Now in the new 2nd district, Bush got 63%. I promise you that will not translate into that many more votes for the Republican challenger… now that could vary a little for Mack b/c he is a good candidate, but it’s just my take on the issue.

  3. CHelf says:

    There are places where it is quite difficult to do the usual painting of the Dem as some New England left wing nut. Marshall is pretty popular.

    There are those Dems in the South who I would consider the New Breed…those who can still be proud of being a Democrat and have the record to not be painted as a far-left liberal. Harold Ford is a good example.

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