Run-off predictions.

Here are my predictions for tomorrow’s run-offs.

GOP:

SoS: I think Karen Handel will win. Stephens just has too much ground to make up, and his attacks on Handel haven’t broken new ground.

Agriculture: Gary Black wins. Again, just too much ground to be made up for Kemp, without a real knockout punch thrown.

Democrats:

Lt. Governor: Jim Martin will win comfortably. I think Hecht’s attacks crossed the line and voters will make him pay for it.

SoS: I’m going to predict a victory by Darryl Hicks. He and Gail Buckner were close on 7/18 in a crowded field. Despite Hicks’ rookie status, I think he’s run a pretty good campaign.

4th CD: Despite the Insider Advantage numbers showing a solid lead for Hank Johnson, I think Cynthia McKinney will pull it out. Not because I want her to, I certainly do not, but I agree with those who say she didn’t take Johnson seriously and has only recently begun to energize her base. We may poo poo the “Johnson’s backed by Republicans” charge, but I think it plays well with certain elements of her base.

Local Races:

There is only one local race to be decided tomorrow in Gwinnett, that of County Commission District 4. Incumbent Kevin Kenerly has gone after challenger Jodie Rosser very hard in the last few days with mailings asking why she hasn’t cooperated with the ongoing corruption investigation that last week snared political consultant Bill McKinney. However, I’ve gotten emails from some people who think the good ‘ole boys are simply trying to protect their own and that Rosser is the agent of change needed in the district. With turnout in Gwinnett predicted to be about 7% I just cannot get a feel for how this race will end up. I won’t wimp out and say “too close to call,” instead I’ll say the power of incumbency pulls Kevin Kenerly through.

Those are my predictions, now let’s hear yours. Don’t just focus on the Statewide stuff – let’s hear about local runoffs as well.

24 comments

  1. Pingback: Thespis Journal
  2. Bill Simon says:

    According to what I understand, the DA has made NO request of Rosser to question her.

    The fact that Kenerly’s reelection team has to resort to manipulation of facts (along with the help of two half-assed AJC reporters in Gwinnett…they must both be on Rountree’s invite list for his annual Christmas Party) means they haven’t got shit otherwise to promote their candidate with, do they?

    I hope Rosser wins…and, I hope that in two years, Danny Porter will get a viable challenger. I’ve never seen such a blatant manipulation of power since Emmett Clower ruled Snellville.

  3. jsm says:

    GOP SoS: I’m voting for Stephens, but I think Handel has clearly out-campaigned him. HANDEL will probably win it.

    Ag Comish: KEMP has the endorsements of the other primary candidates and the momentum down the stretch. I think he’s gonna pull it out.

    Senate 49: This race has been hot and hard fought with total spending coming in at $484k as of last week’s disclosures. Peach Pundit even endured a seemingly unending thread about it.:) Lee Hawkins is endorsed by Congressman Charlie Norwood and has the support of several state senators including Chip Pearson, Greg Goggans, & Jim Whitehead. Also, Rep. James Mills has donated to his campaign. Mark Musselwhite self-destructed Saturday morning before the Hall GOP and went on a rant that cost him 3 votes at my table alone. He also lagged $10k behind Hawkins in fundraising since June 30. I’m calling this one for HAWKINS in a nail-biter.

  4. Tommy_a2b says:

    I am voting Stephens for SOS. Kemp for Ag Comish.

    In Senate 49 everyone knows I am for Lee Hawkins the true Conservative. Who believes in Less Taxes, Less Government, and more Personal Responsibility. Hey JSM, don’t forget Lee is being suported by Senators: Jeff Mullis, Chip Rogers, Bill Hamrick, and Don Thomas. It’s nice when you are supported by your future peers.

  5. debbie0040 says:

    I think Handel for SOS and Black for AG commissioner.

    I think Kenerly will win. My hubby voted for him and I know many phone calls were made on his behalf. A very good mailpiece was sent out by Kenerly addressing the whole McKinney thing and Rosser’s failure to co-operate.

    As far as Senate 49, I will not even make a prediction but I have friends that live in Hall that are voting for Musselwhite . I have seen him all over working and putting up signs.

  6. Demonbeck says:

    I voted for Stephens and Black. I think Black has it in the bag but I don’t think Stephens is going to be able to pull it out. I will readily admit that Handel and Black both clearly outcampaigned their counterparts throughout this election.

  7. Romegaguy says:

    Here are the winners Martin (by 10+), Handel, and Black.

    If Cynthia McKinney turns out voters in South DeKalb she wins as does Darryl Hicks, if not its Johnson and Buckner.

  8. MountainThinker says:

    I think every voter in the 4th distrcit will punch it for Hicks (or at the very least by a HUGE margin) catapulting him to victory by a couple points. I’m a Conservative Republican, so frankly, either way Bill Stephens should be able to beat the democrat nominee! *grins*

  9. Tommy_a2b says:

    Oh I forgot. I voted for Kennerly. I think he wins by a nose. Debbie next time you are in Hall County let me know. I have not seen you since the golf tourney. I will intro you to Casey Cagle. It is true you see Musselwhite doing all his heavy lifting though. Gotta respect him for something.

  10. debbie0040 says:

    I will let you know Tommy, but I have no desire whatsoever to meet Cagle:).

    I got married in June and my hubby has a house in Gwinnett close to the Hall County line. (Spout Springs/ Friendship road intersection area) I am moving there in December when the lease expires on my townhouse in Cobb. For now, we stay in both places.

    I know people that voted for Musselwhite, I don’t know that much about him, though. Just have seen him putting out signs or I think it was him.

    Look forward to seeing you again.

  11. debbie0040 says:

    Tommy, I did make a few phone calls for Kenerly last night. That is who my hubby votes for.

    I voted in Smyrna today and it was very, very light turnout.

    Amazing isn’t it that Iraqis risked death in order to vote and voters in Georgia won’t even risk heat…

  12. Tommy_a2b says:

    I live right where you are talking about. Do you know where Dunbar Rd is?

    I am predicting a 6% turnout in Hall just to be on the wild side.

    I was jok’n about intro’n you to Cagle, lol.

  13. debbie0040 says:

    I am not sure. email me at [email protected]

    The subdivision is Weatherstone Lakes. It is about a half mile from that Kroger Shopping Center at the friendship road, thompson mill road, spout springs intersection.

  14. Clint Austin says:

    JSM,

    You are probably right about SD49 being a nailbiter, but you should probably disclaim you are a worker for Hawkins before taking a shot at Musselwhite’s speech at the forum.

    And in the spirit of that disclosure, I work for Musselwhite, as you well know but I wish to inform others.

    And those endorsements were all lined up by Goggans/Norwood because of the dentist tie – they have nothing to do with Hawkins Republican credentials or lack thereof. I know because I also handled Goggans work and remain on quite good terms with him in spite of your campaign’s inuendo, and he has been very straightforward about why he asked for those endorsements (dentist ties and friendship). None of those folks knew about Hawkins Democrat voting history, contributions, etc. They stuck with Hawkins and kept their word after they found out (which shows they are honorable men), but I think you’ve had a tougher time getting help out of them after they found out than you wish.

    Your campaign has run one heck of a head-bob action, and you frankly did well considering the hand you were dealt (a candidate with such a heavy Democrat voting record and donations to Cleland, Barnes, etc.). However, if you lose tonight, you need to look yourself in the mirror because you did it to yourselves with your ham-handed and low-blow attacks on Musselwhite.

    As for Tommy – well, I think everyone should know you had to be banned from Musselwhite’s property for the white-collar version of dumpster diving at the beginning of this race. Be careful with your personal insults against others.

    That is all…

  15. MountainThinker says:

    Brian Kemp’s campaign is DOA, 29% reporting, down 10,000 votes…You heard it here first!

  16. Tommy_a2b says:

    What do we do if we win. Oh wait we did win!

    STATE SENATE 49 – R REP
    Precincts Reporting 40 97.6 %
    Total Votes 9929

    LEE HAWKINS 5760 58.01%
    MARK E. MUSSELWHITE 4169 41.99%

  17. jsm says:

    Hey, everybody… I’m a volunteer for Hawkins (in case you didn’t read the Senate 49 thread). And I like what I’m seeing in the mirror.

Comments are closed.